Here goes nothing … election-night live thread

UPDATE at 11:46 p.m.: Georgia is now in the Donald Trump column, and the White House is almost within his grasp.

With our 16 electoral votes, plus 10 from Wisconsin, which has been called by Fox News, Trump has surpassed 250. His path to 270 still includes several options: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, perhaps Nevada. It is getting harder at this hour to see how Hillary Clinton manages to get to 270.

UPDATE at 11:07 p.m.: For the U.S. Senate, the question at this point is not whether the GOP will maintain control, but whether it can manage to stay at 54 seats.

This is an unbelievable development. Going into today, most analysts projected a 50-50 tie as the likely — and, for the GOP, best-case — scenario. But despite losing a seat in Illinois, Republicans could offset that with a pickup of their own in Nevada and still look to have a great shot at retaining seats in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. They’ve already won an upset by keeping the seat in Wisconsin.

UPDATE at 10:20 p.m.: Wow. Just wow.

Donald Trump said he was going to redraw the electoral map. No one believed him. And I mean no one: I don’t know of anyone who had him winning the presidency without states like New Hampshire, Colorado or Nevada. And yet, as things stand right this moment — subject to change, of course — it looks like he just might get to 270 without them.

He is winning in Michigan. Winning in Pennsylvania. Winning in Wisconsin. Those are three states that have been Republican fool’s good for a generation. But as of this moment, he is ahead in all. And the forecast at the New York Times, has him ending up ahead in all three. If everything else holds, that would put him over 300 electoral votes — the biggest Republican win since 1988.

And he would be doing it while winning only some of the swing states — and a handful of states from the vaunted “blue wall.”

This could still change. There could be a surprise somewhere. But as of now, you are looking at Republicans holding all the levers of power in Washington, D.C.

UPDATE at 9:05 p.m.: I wrote earlier today that we’d know by this time whether Donald Trump and Senate Republicans had a chance of winning, or whether it’d be an early night.

The verdict: Put on a pot of coffee.

Trump is leading in Florida, although there are still a good number of votes still out in the southern part of the state. He’s also holding a lead in Virginia — with a lot of ballots still to be counted in the D.C. suburbs — and he just went ahead in Ohio. But altogether, it makes for enough of a showing by Trump to think he has a shot of winning. I’m not saying it’s likely. I’m just saying it’s far from over.

There’s also reason for Democrats to be nervous in a pair of states they might’ve thought they had in the bag:

Meanwhile, in the Senate it is shaping up as a good night for the GOP. Their candidates have won in Florida and Indiana, are leading in North Carolina and Missouri, and FiveThirtyEight.com has pushed their chances in New Hampshire up to 61 percent. Put it together, and that website gives Republicans just better than 2-to-1 odds of maintaining Senate control with at least 51 seats.

UPDATE at 8:34 p.m.: There won’t be a repeat of 2008’s total Democratic victory in the House, Senate and presidency:

Whether we’ll end up with total GOP control of all three or (at least) two years of divided government remains to be seen.

UPDATE at 8:18 p.m.: We have our first result that was in question, as Florida voters have returned Marco Rubio to the Senate. Rubio had been favored to win a second term, but the state was only considered a “Republican lean” by most — and it was an absolute must-win if the GOP was to maintain control of the Senate.

Things are looking less good for Republicans at the moment in the Missouri and New Hampshire Senate races. The GOP probably has to win Missouri to achieve even a tie in the Senate, and New Hampshire was probably the party’s best bet for winning 51 seats and maintaining a majority.

Meanwhile, at this moment the presidential race in Florida is practically tied. More to come …

ORIGINAL POST:

The polls are now closed in Georgia, along with five other states and most of Florida. The counting is under way.

clinton-trump-second-debate

I’ll be updating this post as results come in, with fresh content always posted at the top. Feel free as always to share what you’re seeing in the comments thread.

All we have at this hour are some early exit-poll results, which may or may not reflect the final exit polls, which may or may not reflect the actual vote totals. But they are all we have so …

The demographic data are interesting. Whites as a share of the electorate continued a long-term trend by declining 2 points, to 70 percent. Blacks were also down by 1 point, to 12 percent. Latinos were up 1 point to 11 percent and Asians up a point to 4 percent. Among two of those groups, Donald Trump appears to have improved slightly on Mitt Romney’s performance according to this information from MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki:

That’s a net gain of 8 points among black voters for Trump compared to Romney, and of 6 points among Latinos. I don’t know what the margin of error is for subgroups like those, so the differences may or may not be statistically significant.

Also of interest is how Trump did with white voters. Check out the breakdowns by sex and education level here:

Trump’s gains among whites without college degrees appear to have been roughly offset, in percentage terms, by his losses among those with degrees (though I don’t know how large each group was, which we would need to know if this means a net gain or loss). But look at those numbers for men vs. women: Trump’s margin among white men was larger than Hillary Clinton’s margin among white women, in both education groups. I don’t know about the white, non-college women, or the white men in either group, but Clinton’s edge among white, college-graduate women is a reversal from 2012, when Romney led among that group — which was in turn a reversal from 2008, when Barack Obama did.

Reader Comments 0

39 comments
Starik
Starik

Wow. I voted for Clinton, mainly because of Trump's position on "illegal" aliens.  Maybe he'll build the wall, declare the problem solved, and let the useful undocumented stay. Let them stay and work at least.  Maybe he'll negotiate with Putin on the possible points of agreement (I doubt Clinton would.)  Maybe it's over for affirmative action, and we can judge people by their skills and intelligence and worth ethic, not whether their fulfilling a hiring quota. Maybe employers can judge black employees on the quality of their work rather than their skin color.  No more keeping unproductive employees for fear of the EEOC.  Maybe the looters and arsonists of the BLM "movement" will get the treatment they deserve - "lock'em up!"



Whatever happens, there will be four interesting years.

juvenal
juvenal

Who do illegals compete with for jobs?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@SGTGrit Do  not gloat, please. We have been given a gift from God, the citizens before us that threw off an oppressive government had to die, all we had to do was vote. He loves us. Let us honor Him by bringing all his children together as one. 


I am not joking about this, I do not care if you are gay, if you are orange, it does not matter to me, we need to come together as one. Our country is our greatest strength, it is our provider, let us work as one to make it great again.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@SGTGrit @IReportYouWhine Me too. I never thought I'd live long enough to see such a thing such as this. He has given us a second chance as a nation, it is up to us now to follow that through. We have to rid ourselves of the animosity and divisiveness and work to bring everyone together. From here on forward, we have to be the alternative to the hate, we have to reach out, we have to overcome any disagreement, we have to pull this country together. 


We have been given new life, let us not ruin it. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Conservatives, now is not the time to go on witch hunts. Now is not the time to settle the score. We are not democrats. Let us bridge the divide, let us unite the people of this country. Let us show true leadership, let us listen to all voices. We can hang together or we can hang separately, remember? 


Pull this country together and never again put it asunder. 


United we stand, divided we fall.



SGTGrit
SGTGrit

No hurrah's yet but the wailing and gnashing of teeth is coming into hear shot.

lvg
lvg

Welcome to Fascism, throw out the Constitution  and let cattle cars start filling up. Second time in less than ten years that GOP crashed the stock market. Maybe even take the dollar down too this time as world's reserve currency.



LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Hillary promised to repeal the First Amendment, so shove your "fascism" whining.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@lvg I love you, lvg. If you would kindly write down your list of grievances, I will present them to President Trump and we will see what we can do. Nothing is outside of consideration at this point, well, almost nothing. Please be considerate of the fact that you are also making demands on 350 million other people, so it would be best if you kept your list like really short. Again, welcome to the the new America, and we will accommodate you as best we can.


With love, I Report.





IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

I look upon this day as though it is July the 4th, 1776. We have separated our country from an oppressive government and have given freedom to all of it's citizens.  Sure, you can go on about how blacks were not free until 100 years later but what does that prove? We are what we are, and now is our chance to be great, together as one people. Let us put aside our differences, I have been wrong, you have been wrong, that is behind us. Tomorrow is our future. 


Let us make the most of it.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Should all this play out like it looks like it will, keep in mind that all our differences are water under the bridge. This is our chance to move forward together, a once in a lifetime chance, and we need to take advantage of it. Let us pull this country out of the mud and make it better for everyone, everyone, black, white, brown, red, everyone. I'm serious. Why do we hate each other so much? What are we gaining from all this decisiveness?


Give Trump a chance. Give America a chance. Don't go immediately to your respective corners and wait for the bell to ring. Let's negotiate instead of fighting. Let's talk, let us hear each side, let us agree, together, as one people. 


Let us be great again.


Please. I'm giving you the olive branch. Please take it.

TGT88
TGT88

Why the heck can't they count votes in GA?! Over 3.5 hours since the polls closed and less than half the vote counted?!!!

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Atlanta election officials searching their trunks for "lost" voting machines. Detroit too.

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Remember when Hillary was going to send Obama's name up to a Democrat Senate as her first SCOTUS nominee?

Bite it, jerks.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Why the hell won't they call Georgia? Are they waiting for Fulton County to cheat it up?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Come on, Pennsylvania, you can do better than this.


Let's go!

JFMcNamara
JFMcNamara

Looks like all the polls were wrong. We might be making America the 50s again. The polls were right about him winning the primary. I wonder what changed, and why they were off? Going to be an interesting post op.

JFMcNamara
JFMcNamara

Yup, if he wins, it would be really a good case study. The next week may get a lot of folks fired. The polls are almost always right. Even Brexit was leading in the polls.

I can't imagine what people think he is going to do of elected. I'm loading up on real estate though. I may never pay taxes again.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@JFMcNamara That sound you hear is the first of a thousand pre-written op-eds about Trump's loss/Clinton's win being ripped up.

JFMcNamara
JFMcNamara

Looks like all the polls were wrong. We might be making America the 50s again. I wonder what the pollsters got wrong.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Washington, DC makes me want to puke.


What a total waste of territory.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

So we could have a pretty good idea by 9 p.m. whether Trump still has a chance.


9 o'clock has come and gone and this thing is nowhere near over. Fasten your seatbelts.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

With 57% reporting, Washington, DC is 93.1% clinton, 4% Trump. What else do you need to know?


Rigged.

Finn-McCool
Finn-McCool

GA is too close to call which is good for Hillary!