Why Trump’s poor polling doesn’t make for a purple Peach State

The AJC’s latest opinion poll is out, and in the broadest sense it shows what other recent polls of Georgia have found: a tight race between Donald Trump at 44 percent and Hillary Clinton at 42 percent. Is this a sign our state is turning purple sooner than expected?

Maybe. But there’s also good reason to pump the brakes on that notion just a bit.

Consider the results for the Republican and Democratic candidates in Georgia’s top-of-the-ticket races (president, senator, governor) since 2002:

ga-statewide-voting-2002-thru-2014-correct

What you see there, with the exception of 2004-06 and that 2010 Senate race (featuring a popular incumbent in Johnny Isakson), is a very consistent share of the vote for both Republicans (53.0, 52.8, 53.3, 53.0, 52.1, 49.8, 51.4, 52.8) and Democrats (45.1, 44.9, 45.5, 43.0, 46.9, 46.8, 46.2, 45.9). Both parties’ percentages have been within a 4-point band in those eight races across 12 years.

The problem for those who think this presidential election means Georgia is turning purple is Clinton isn’t polling any better than previous Democrats. In fact, she’s running a few points behind them — the Democratic average in those eight races is 45.5 percent — although one could reasonably expect that gap to close by Election Day. (Even in the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll she leads, mentioned in the video above, she’s only at 45 percent. She doesn’t surpass 42 percent in any of the polls currently in the Real Clear Politics average for Georgia.)

The difference here, then, is really on the Republican side. The AJC poll shows Trump is a full 8 points behind the GOP’s 52.3 percent average in those same eight races. Maybe he’ll make up that shortfall, maybe not. While I don’t expect Gary Johnson’s poll showing of 9 percent to hold up in the final tally, there is precedent for enough of a third-party vote in Georgia that Trump could remain below the 50 percent mark, albeit most likely in a win.

Looking a bit deeper, it looks like this shortfall is specific to Trump. Isakson, again running for re-election, is ahead by 15 points in our new poll. And, at 47 percent, he’s well within range of that 52.3 percent GOP average. Meanwhile Isakson’s Democratic challenger, Jim Barksdale, is flirting with a multi-decade (and maybe historic) low for his party in these types of races, pulling just 32 percent in the AJC poll.

Clinton hovering just below the usual Democratic number, plus Barksdale lagging way behind it, would not seem to be the makings of a major shift in Georgia politics. More likely, it’s the same old story for now — edited only slightly to reflect a couple of particularly bad role-players in Trump and Barksdale.

Reader Comments 0

99 comments
Walter_White
Walter_White

There are only so many angry old white men. Until the Republican Party becomes more inclusive by reaching out to minorities, changing demographics foretell its demise. Maybe not this year, but soon.

DerekGator
DerekGator

Sadly,  Me thinks that this is the last presidential election that the Republicans can win due to changing demographics.  GA is 60% white and falling everyday.  Minorities vote 90% democratic and whites vote 40% Dem, the numbers don't lie, Dems win GA in 2020. 

DaltonbywayofBickley
DaltonbywayofBickley

Trump will take Georgia big. Isakson will get 60-percent of the vote. Georgia remains deep red. (I almost wrote bright red, but with Trump winning bigly here, that cannot apply)

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@DaltonbywayofBickley @McGarnagle I think  McCain is the right comparison. If Trump wins GA by less than that, it will be hard for his supporters to claim -- truthfully, anyway -- that he represented an improvement over the "establishment" candidates.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

I have voted just as I described would be my ballot about a week ago.  Only two weeks more to go with this infamous campaign.  Thank goodness!!


My father's side of my family is filled with progressive liberal democrats; my mother's side of my family is filled with conservative republicans.  Though I obviously have the same genes as my father's people in more abundance, I love all of my cousins on both sides of my family.  My Facebook page rarely contains political messages today though I have posted a few in favor of Hillary and some of my cousins have posted a few in favor of Trump.  They ignore mine and I ignore theirs, and none of us has left the other.


It occurred to me this morning that the bond that bonds us all together is faith in God and love of God and of each other.  My father's people are not fundamentalist Christians for the most part but they believe in God and worship God.  My mother's people are fundamentalist Christians for the most part.  Nevertheless, genuine faith in God, without dogma in trying to prove anything is the ONE element that has joined me with both sides of my family.  That is a lesson that the world could learn, I do believe.  Even with all of our differences, if we join together in praising God and in loving one another as God's children, however we perceived God to be, that is the most profound way to transform our world to one of peace not a world of hate and fear.

--------------------------------------------

"And each in his separate star, will draw the Thing as he sees it, for the God of Things as they are."  Rudyard Kipling ("L'Envoi")

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

Professor Norpoth: Trump Has 87% of Winning November Election


His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.



This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.



https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/professor-norpoth-trump-87-winning-november-election-video/


Deal with it.

Caius
Caius

@IReportYouWhine I will give you this reminder, Al Gore won the popular vote.


Support here: Investors Business, LA Times and Rasmussen daily tracking national polls all have it at a dead heat tie. Emphasize the "national" nature of these polls.


Bottom line, if you want to bet do it on the World Series.

lvg
lvg

Not a Trump supporter :


"""An American vigilante hacker -- who calls himself "The Jester" -- has defaced the website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in retaliation for attacks on American targets.

On Friday night, the Jester gained access to the Russian government ministry's website. And he left a message: Stop attacking Americans.

"Comrades! We interrupt regular scheduled Russian Foreign Affairs Website programming to bring you the following important message," he wrote. "Knock it off. You may be able to push around nations around you, but this is America. Nobody is impressed."

MID.ru is the official website of the Russian agency that is in charge of maintaining that country's international diplomacy -- equivalent to the U.S. Department of State."""


From CNN

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@lvg Boy I'll bet the russians are withdrawing from syria right now, you reckon?


So this is all it takes for the liberals to think they've accomplished something, having a clown deface a website.


Disqualified from running national security, check.

lvg
lvg

Dumb cons got conned by Orange Clown on Immigration. CNN dug up this 2012 interview with the supreme BS artist:


"Asked about his views on immigrant labor, Trump said, "You know my views on it and I'm not necessarily, I think I'm probably down the middle on that also. Because I also understand how, as an example, you have people in this country for 20 years, they've done a great job, they've done wonderfully, they've gone to school, they've gotten good marks, they're productive — now we're supposed to send them out of the country, I don't believe in that, Michelle, and you understand that. I don't believe in a lot things that are being said."

Trump's comments came in the context of a discussion of the Supreme Court's decision a day before on the state of Arizona's tough immigration law. Trump said "both sides lost" in the ruling, which struck down key parts of the law but upheld a part of the law allowing law enforcement to check the immigration status of a person when enforcing other laws."

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

Bring in millions of mexicans every year and then ask them who they'd like for us to have as president, isn't that sweet?

lvg
lvg

@IReportYouWhine Probably choose the candidate who actually has a  long history of employing illegals at below market wages.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

Yeah, like the dummycrats aren't in love with marxism/ communism.


That would be their religion.

lvg
lvg

Love it when the cons only remaining hat trick is some Putin supplied e-mails of people down the food chain from Hillary. Where's the 30,000 e-mails Vladmir promised Trump? (FBI has reconstructed or retrieved from recipients most of them -instead of chasing terrorists).

RoadScholar
RoadScholar

@lvg Should the e-mails even be considered? In a court of law they would not be legally considered as they were stolen property and obtained illegally. But that doesn't coincide with rabid Trump supporters. Would these e-mails be discoverable in a legal action? Since Many Trump supporters do not know how or government and courts work....

bu2
bu2

@RoadScholar @lvg Hillary thinks like you.  That is why she is unfit to be president.

DerekGator
DerekGator

@RoadScholar @lvg :  She did it but in your book because the evidence is not admissible, it is ok?  What kind of morally bankrupt world do you live in?

lvg
lvg

@IReportYouWhine @lvg Aww ain't that a show of brilliance from an uneducated member of the deplorables.Probably has no idea who Medvedev is or what he was saying in 2008.

Larry England
Larry England

Well Kyle I'm not as wealthy as you and Trump but you may be shocked in a couple of weeks;I was dodging bullets while Trump and probably your daddy were dodging the draft like most Republicans so I won't be pulling the lever for your boy.Money doesn't buy everything including my memories of dead buddies.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

@Larry England 

What about LBJ and his phony Silver Star. That didn't stop him from sending others to die in Vietnam. What about Bill Clinton? He didn't have any trigger time in the Nam. What about Barack Obama? He's allowed an incompetent VA to fail our veterans. You must love your Democrats regardless of their poor track record in supporting our troops. USMC 61-67. out

lvg
lvg

@SGTGrit @Larry England That what happens when you spend trillions on a phony war with no funding source- cannon fodder gets the shaft and the Black janitor in the White House cleaning up the GOP mess gets the blame. 

sim_namore
sim_namore

@SGTGrit @Larry England  Except that the VA was failing even worse under President George "Support Our Troops" Bush--and he's the one who let the VA fall into a very sorry state indeed.  You will recall that right?  Rats wandering the hallways of Walter Reed Medical--you know--scandal-- that sort of thing?  You also recall that the GOP blocked funding--demanded/implemented massive cuts--right?   Perhaps you'll recall the GOP's 2012 convention.  Perhaps.  Did you take notice how many times veterans and active-duty military personnel were mentioned from the podium?  Did you notice?  I did. That number is zero.  0. Not one word. Not even a little bitty one.   No prayers either--of course--and here they were so big on Jesus just a few short months back.  Remember that?  I do.  But back at the convention: Bush's name was never mentioned either--the good ole Commander-in-Chief--you'll remember him won't you, he was the "warhtyme prezdehnt." That fellow.  He deleted 22 million emails and forgot all about them, too.  Forgetful crew--ain't they?   Don't give me this Obama ruined the VA stool--I've been around the block a hundred times and given more to this nation than you could possibly comprehend.  You make me puke.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

Your choice; being groped by a billionaire sugar daddy or being left to die in the hallway of a Veteran's Administration "hospital?"


Let's talk about the REAL issues, dummycrats. 

Brian Barcomb
Brian Barcomb

It's no where near purple... It's still deep RED. This is AJC hope to have headlines and sell papers. The potus race in Ga isn't close and even if it is, potus doesn't change this political makeup of a state.

DerekGator
DerekGator

Have you left  your lily white suburb lately?  Whites in GA are soon to be a minority and non-whites vote Dem. 

lvg
lvg

Biden:


"What he said he did and does is the textbook definition of sexual assault," Biden said. "And think about this: It's more than that. He said that, 'Because I'm famous, because I'm a star, because I'm a billionaire, I can do things other people can't.' What a disgusting assertion for anyone to make."

An animated Biden then says, "The press always ask me, 'Don't I wish I were debating him?' No, I wish we were in high school. I could take him behind the gym. That's what I wish."

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

@lvg 

Gaffer Joe, may need to take his double barrel shotgun should he go behind the gym with someone. 

lvg
lvg

@SGTGrit @lvg Love to see him take the pompous jack-ss behind the gym.

Robert McMillan
Robert McMillan

The big story here is how many of us have become registered Libertarians. Both major party candidates do not deserve our vote.


Left the Republican party and not going back.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

 An internal investigation indicates the female employee’s allegations were more than merely plausible. According to a memorandum the female employee filed in her legal case against the FCC, after Reed failed to take action on her behalf and her male coworkers’ behavior escalated, she reported the pornography issue to the agency’s Inspector General in February 2012. Though it doesn’t name any employees specifically, pages 17-18 of the Inspector General’s March 2016 report to the agency’s commissioners describe the results of a “lengthy investigation” into the misuse of FCC facilities to conduct personal business and view pornography. The report states that the investigation, “which included referrals of potential criminal activity to the Internal Revenue Service that were ultimately declined, revealed that four FCC employees violated various ethical and administrative rules, including the FCC’s Computer System Rules of Behavior, the FCC’s Cyber Security Policy, and the Standard of Ethical Conduct for Employees of the Executive Branch, 5 CFR § 2635 et seq.” Among other violations, the report noted there was “substantial evidence” that the employees used FCC equipment to “view, store, and send pornographic material,” and that the Inspector General had referred the case to “the appropriate Bureaus and Offices within the Commission for action.”



http://www.forbes.com/sites/fredcampbell/2016/10/20/the-real-story-behind-the-fcc-sex-scandal/#24c3d55d1703



Your tax dollars at work^^. 


Time for a change?

Infraredguy
Infraredguy

I am sure glad to see the main topic of discussion in this race is about sex and corruption and not about any pesky issue like 20,000,000,000,000 in real debt and 60,000,000,000,000 in unfunded obligations

PoliticParallelUniverse
PoliticParallelUniverse

Sure, with a 69%white demographic you can produce a poll showing a tie. Yet the latest statistics now show the white demographic is below 57% with a surging minority turnout expected.

Infraredguy
Infraredguy

What is it about the definition of " Minoriy " that you don't understand?

Starik
Starik

@Infraredguy There's a black minority, an Hispanic one, an Asian one, an Indian one...Lots of differences.