Trump goes for all the marbles, by trying to show he hasn’t lost his

The election that was starting to look like a laugher several weeks ago has lately turned seriously close. It’s a wonder what having Hillary Clinton as your opponent will do for your chances of winning.

Clinton’s post-convention bounce in the polls has disappeared. Her national lead over Donald Trump is a fraction of what it was in early August, and his current standing in various swing states puts him well within reach of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

In short, this race is back to where it was when it began: Americans really don’t like Hillary Clinton, but they’re not totally sure they can vote for Donald Trump.

Clinton and Trump

And so they are expected to tune in by the tens of millions — I’ve seen at least one estimate of 100 million viewers — for the first debate tonight. It’s hard to imagine that many people would watch a debate if they’ve already made up their minds. I think a large number of them — not a majority, or even a plurality, but perhaps enough to swing the election — will watch with a very specific kind of question in mind:

Is Trump crazy, or not? Does he seem like he might nuke somebody? Can I trust him?

If Trump can reassure them on these questions, I think he’ll be our next president. If not, he won’t.

Understand the difference between that standard and “winning” this debate, or the two that will follow. I don’t expect Trump to be declared the “winner,” because he’s not your typical debater. He will sound ill-prepared at times, flustered at times, incoherent at times.

That’s because he was, at times, all those things during the GOP primary debates. Didn’t matter. Other candidates would “win” the debates in the eyes of the political class and the pundits; Trump was the one who kept rising in the polls, kept winning states.

One thing that has become clear this year is that a huge chunk of the electorate is scoring the fight differently than the judges. They aren’t worried about style points. They aren’t giving points for landing punches on policy or ideology. If anything, they’re looking for someone who will go to a Washington that’s used to boxing, and start fighting MMA-style.

It is unclear if Democrats fully grasp this yet. A video that appeared this past week showed Clinton, addressing labor union members, wondering aloud and with no small sense of annoyance why she wasn’t “50 points ahead.”

It’s the same kind of self-righteous indignation many left-wing celebrities heaped on “Tonight Show” host Jimmy Fallon after he declined to attack Trump as an orange-faced vulgarian when the candidate appeared on his show. Democrats’ collective belief that Trump isn’t just worthy of opposition but of complete dismissal from polite conversation — along with the “deplorables” who support him, whatever their reasons — goes a long way toward explaining why Clinton has fallen back in the polls.

If she shows up at the debates with that sense of annoyance and that self-righteous indignation and that dismissiveness, she’ll lose.

In fact, I’m not sure there’s anything Clinton herself can do in the debates to win the election. Americans know what they get in her, and they haven’t decided to take it yet.

The election is about Trump, and whether Americans think they can take the risk of putting him in office. A hundred million people is a heck of an audience for a man trying to convince them they can.

Reader Comments 0

165 comments
Anne Nelson
Anne Nelson

Trump is a mobile mental health facility. He is a extra extra high fashion model for republicans women to drool over more than 4 hours every night.

Johnquvell Powell
Johnquvell Powell

He cant prove he is not crazy! He has the patent on crazy he did everything but dance in a circle \U0001f602\U0001f602\U0001f602\U0001f602\U0001f602\U0001f602

Billares El Ocho
Billares El Ocho

I'm sorry but when trump stated that the housing market crises that made thousands of people homeless was "just business," (sounds rather like the mafia to me) and admits that he's smart for not paying any taxes, but expects everyone else to pay their fair share??? and his supporters still think he should be elected as POTUS... I give up. What is Wrong with these people?

Audrey Smalls
Audrey Smalls

All of you trump dummies know Damon well he came unhinged last night like he does every night he was drinking so much water I guess he was looking for answers in his water He lost that debate and he will loose the next one .You can't fix stupid .He isn't presidential material for a high school debate Looser .Liar tax evader orange idiot.

Audrey Smalls
Audrey Smalls

Michael Mancini is that all you have you should be correcting your candidate with his sniffing and lies .If no one thought he wasn't presidential before the debate well he removed all doubt that he isn't qualified

Razela Santina
Razela Santina

Screw all these secret societies & fraternity orders trying to run shhh ... Run your own circles & lives b4 you piss GOD bad off with your wicked ways... Lying stealing poison drugs medical negligence biased courts oppressive actions to public schools and all the other lewd acts u do: guarantee u will get away with Nada . Judgement day is real .... So keep on

MargaretHolt
MargaretHolt

His temperament was showing, and it wasn't pretty.

Sandra De Armas Marsh
Sandra De Armas Marsh

He can't prove he's not crazy. Every time he opens his mouth he shows us just how crazy he is. Too much evidence.

Tom
Tom

Hillary has been "incoherent" and lying all of here life! That is what Lawyers are trained to do! Hillery lost the debate to the the Godfather of the APPRENTICE! No blood lost here, they are both totally equally worthless! 

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

Trump was inchorent most of the night


He lost. Badly.

MarkVV
MarkVV

The question, "Who won the debate," makes little sense. There must be some clear criteria for winning and losing, and such criteria do not exist for this kind of political debate. The only question that makes sense is whether one of the candidates will significantly benefit or loose among voters. In that sense, I suspect the answer is no, but I do not pretend to have the ability to see into the minds of the voters and predict their decisions.  

Ronald Thomas
Ronald Thomas

How rediculous do you have to be, to be a Red State?

lvg
lvg

Four news outlets give Donald the award as a first class BS artist:



""In a normal election year this would be extraordinary. On Sunday editors and reporters at the newsrooms used another word: necessary.

The New York Times story — "A Week of Whoppers" — came out first on Saturday. PoliticoThe Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times all followed within hours.

Several of the editors who were involved said the timing was a coincidence. But there was clearly a desire to publish stories before Monday's debate, when Trump and Clinton's truthfulness will surely be at issue.

"Never in modern presidential politics has a major candidate made false statements as routinely as Trump has," the L.A. Times declared on page one of Sunday's paper.


Politico Magazine's team analyzed every statement by Clinton and Trump for five days and said "the conclusion is inescapable: Trump's mishandling of facts and propensity for exaggeration so greatly exceed Clinton's as to make the comparison almost ludicrous."""

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/25/media/newspapers-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-lies/index.html


But Kyle is happy if Trump does not act batsh-t crazy in the debates. Problem is he did act batsh-t crazy at the end per Steve Schmidt a GOP campaign manager for Bush and McCain.

Bruno2
Bruno2

@lvg In case you didn't notice, Kyle is not a Trump fan in any way, form or fashion.  The bottom line is that you live in a Lib bubble, Ivg, subsisting on confirmation bias.

Bet:  As bad as you think Trump did tonight, I guarantee the poll numbers will be virtually unchanged by the end of the week.

Keith Pflepsen
Keith Pflepsen

Trump was not as polished. But he cares about people. Hillary has done nothing.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

Objectively I'd have to say Hillary won on coolness. Coolness isn't Trumps suit in the political arena at any rate. Hillary, has been exposed to political coolness where Trump, has not had that experience. Beyond that observation and as far as political arrows that were shot, it was probably a tie from my view..

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The thing that struck me most tonight was how much hillary looked like Marco Rubio, smiling at some unseen audience member at how brilliant her response was.


Fact.

Bruno2
Bruno2

@IReportYouWhine One hallmark of Libs is their overwhelming self-delusion about their "rightness" on issues and their poor judgment about how their candidate's performance is received by the public.  The MSNBC moderators are falling over themselves right now going on and on about how great Hillary's performance was and how bad Trump's was even though any impartial observer would call it a tie.  Reminds me of how surprised the liberal press was when McGovern got slaughtered by Nixon back in '72.

Debbie Anderson Johnson
Debbie Anderson Johnson

I do want someone that dont lie so good & have all the corruption in their past. Trump for President!

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

It simply amazes me that the same people that whined and moaned about G W Bush winning the war in Iraq can openly complain about how hard it is to win a war in the Middle East. Their voters are simply too stupid to connect the dots.


Trump debated twp people tonight, Lester Holt was an out growth of the DNC from his opening question all the way to him cutting Trump short at the very end. 


You could take a tape of hillary's promises tonight and compare them to her husbands promises 30 years ago and you will not find any differences. The exact same BS, what makes anyone think the results will be any different?

Bruno2
Bruno2

@IReportYouWhine I disagree about the moderator.  His questions were reasonable, even though he could have gone after Hillary a lot harder.

Bruno2
Bruno2

I'm sure no Libs will agree, but I'm going to call the debate a tie tonight.  Trump held his own, which was the most important thing for him.  High marks to the debate moderator who kept things on track while allowing both candidates to have their say.  The questions were reasonable, with little of the nonsense the occurred during the Republican Primary debates.

I'll look forward to seeing Kyles' take on it tomorrow.

Bruno2
Bruno2

Anyone (i.e. the Bookman regulars) who had a fantasy that Hillary would blow Trump out of the water with her superior debating skills has to be a little disappointed right now.  In my estimation, all Trump has to do is hold his own tonight. 

Bruno2
Bruno2

Well, so much for a "kinder, gentler" Trump--he's in full attack mode now.  His point stands re: Hillary, however:  What in the heck is she going to bring to the table that is new??  She's been in government for 30 years now in some form or the other, and has done nothing to increase jobs.  As Kyle queries above, are we willing to take a chance on some new blood??

Bruno2
Bruno2

It took Hillary all of about 5 minutes to turn me off completely with her anti-rich people talk.  Yeah, let's just "share the wealth" and hand the profits over to the workers, the workers who took no risk in accepting a paying job.  Her attempt to portray herself as a product of the working class rings hollow.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

Well we're gettin on to game time. My best to the Falcons but civil duty calls.

Bruno2
Bruno2

@SGTGrit I may be proven a fool, but I took the Falcons +2.5 points tonight. They're good at getting the fans hopes up early in the season, only to squander it all later on.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

Obama in 08 had an aura of youth and coolness that attracted the youth vote and they really turned out for him. Additionally, he held the historic appeal of being the first Black president and that attracted Blacks, Independents, young people along with traditional Democrats to get out and vote for him. In 012 the bloom among this group was falling off the rose a bit but none the less this group in adequate part turned out to vote for him. It took, however, a Herculean effort on the part of the DNC to rally their superior ground game and get people to the polls. I should note that the mid-term elections in both of Obama's terms didn't fair very well for Obama and the Democrats because apathy among the base proved too difficult for the DNC to overcome and to hold control of congress.


Fast forward to today. Does Hillary, possess the Obama charm and charisma? Can the DNC pull off the same Herculean effort to get people to the polls for Hillary or will it be similar to the  apathy we saw in the Obama's mid-term elections. If it's the latter, Trump wins.

BuckeyeGa
BuckeyeGa

@SGTGrit Midterm elections isn't an Obama problem, it's a Democrat problem. Democrats usually don't do well in midterms because of low voter turnout. 

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

@BuckeyeGa @SGTGrit 

That's my point. Low Democrat voter turnout equals probable loss for Hillary, and Democrats. Leading indicators for Trump supporters show a probable high turnout. My sense is that at this point no one, even the experts can accurately predict. Maybe after tonight but I doubt it.

Henry Krinkle
Henry Krinkle

She's so unelectable. She couldn't beat a limp noodle.

Audrey Smalls
Audrey Smalls

Well she beat your man so what is he a limp noodle or less.

Trevor Smith
Trevor Smith

For the latest and greatest involving the Hillary Clinton crime syndicate visit the Judicial Watch page.

Ronald Thomas
Ronald Thomas

Yes, not as good as what you must be smoking!

Trevor Smith
Trevor Smith

Not near as much as the known lying criminal traitor with blood on her hands Clinton..

Larry Denenberg
Larry Denenberg

As President he'll have plenty of blood on his hands. More blood than wives.

RoyalDawg
RoyalDawg

Most of the criticisms leveled at Trump were also leveled at Reagan in 1976. It took him 2 shots, but then 2nd time he ran against an inept Democrat incumbent and the people took a risk. It yielded them one of the greatest Presidents of the modern era.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

If she shows up at the debates with that sense of annoyance and that self-righteous indignation and that dismissiveness, she’ll lose.

Unfortunately, for Hillary, that's who she is. That's who she's been her entire political life. If she tries to cover it up, people will know and their lack of trust in Hillary will grow even stronger.

HECK of a place to be but there she stands...in the bright light of her history.

Trump? What can be said other than he's Trump? 

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@FIGMO2 When you perceive yourself as an elite aristocrat it is very difficult to hide your loathing for the little people and your self assessment.  I have been trying my whole life, haven't been able to do it, haha.

Caius
Caius

"If Trump can reassure them on these questions, I think he’ll be our next president. If not, he won’t."

Agree.  This is pretty much it. Every 4 years the American voters in their wisdom go to the polls an elect a new president. Since the 1952 election, when TV entered the election picture, (remember the hole in Adlai Stevenson's shoe?) the Democrats have won 7 elections and the Republicans 9.  The voters always get who they vote for but not necessarily what they vote for (how many of ya'll voted to invade Iraq in the 2000 election).


Over the years I have found debates to be useless in judging anything about a candidate.

Trump has proved he is one of the most ignorant human beings on the planet, the debate will not change that. Clinton has proved that she has no core beliefs in the role of government in a civil society, the debate will not change that.


Falcons playing tonight, right?  Or is that left?


McGarnagle
McGarnagle

@Caius


I'll be watching the game tonight. And let poor Kyle sit through it all and tell me who won and who lost.

MindDriver
MindDriver

Trump ignorant? How many billions are you worth?

MarkVV
MarkVV

@Caius Can you explain what are " core beliefs in the role of government in a civil society," an how Hillary lacks therm? I could understand judging someone's "core beliefs in the role of government in a society" to be wrong (i.e., different from my beliefs), but  how do you determine the absence of  a belief?