Why it just might be true that Donald Trump knows what he’s doing

Here is something you don’t often read in stories about our changing demographics and their potential effect on our elections: There are more new voters to be found among white Americans than among minorities.

At least, that’s true in the short term. The under-18 population is less white than are the voting-age ranks. But the situation today is outlined in a new piece by the New York Times, with this summary:

“While young people, poor people and Hispanics are often singled out for low voting rates, there are millions of nonvoters in every demographic group. In fact, the majority of people who didn’t vote in the 2012 presidential election were white, middle-income and middle-aged.”

Read that last bit again, for emphasis: “the majority of people who didn’t vote in the 2012 presidential election were white, middle-income and middle-aged.” And just who would “white, middle-income and middle-aged” Americans be most likely to support in November, if we go by the opinion polls?

This guy:

The potential growth in his target demographic is yuuuuge. (AP Photo / Paul Sancya)

The potential growth in his target demographic is yuuuuge. (AP Photo / Paul Sancya)

According to the Times’ piece, the number of white non-voters in 2012 surpassed 40 million, about half as many as the number of white voters four years ago. If all 40 million of them had turned out and voted the way other white voters did in 2012, then — all else being equal — Mitt Romney would have won the popular vote by more than 3 million instead of losing it by nearly 5 million. That kind of shift would have almost certainly swung the electoral vote, too.

Of course, it’s not guaranteed that all else would have been equal. Nor is it guaranteed that whites, whether they voted in 2012 or not, are drawn to Trump’s rhetoric in the same proportion that white voters were drawn to Romney. And if Trump is indeed banking on attracting many of those 40 million whites to the polls to vote for him, he also has to consider that some of the no-show minorities might turn out to vote against him (though it appears there were at least 10 million more white non-voters than non-white non-voters).

Still, it would be hard to write a more accurate description of Trump voters than that of the typical non-voter four years ago (Hillary Clinton’s deplorable attempt at labeling tens of millions of Americans as “Deplorables” notwithstanding). And that turns conventional wisdom about the path to victory this year, and perhaps even the next couple of elections, on its head.

More data from the Times’ piece also undercut the idea that non-white voter turnout has suffered in the age of voter ID laws.

No matter how the data are sliced — by education level, income or sex — African-Americans were more likely to turn out in 2012 than whites. What’s more, the gap was larger the further down the scale of income or education:

nyt-voter-turnout-2012-charts

Credit: New York Times

So it seems the greatest gains to be made are among whites of low or modest income and education. Which, again, fits right into Trump’s demographic target.

None of this changes the fact that Trump’s rhetoric could make it much harder for the GOP to win elections in the medium term, as the less-white, younger cohort of Americans becomes eligible to vote. But in the short term? It’s possible he knows what he’s doing.

Reader Comments 0

148 comments
Wascatlady
Wascatlady

I'm guessing we won't hear anything from Kyle about trump until this blows over (in a decade or two).

lvg
lvg

Yep Kyle is right . Trump knew exactly what he was doing with the birther nonsense. Just the con artist's variation on what McConnell and whole GOP delegation was doing  to Obama. Put him in the lead of the  Stupid Party with their approval.

Cobbian
Cobbian

"might be true that Trump knows what he is doing."  That is how this column is introduced on the front page.


But here is the other side of it.  It might also be true that Trump doesn't know  what he is doing.  Getting elected is not the end point.  Actually promoting policies that help with the problems he is so ready to moan about is the problem.  We have no idea what Trump will do and I don't think he has any idea what he will do.  


For far too long, the Republicans have been about just winning power and have not done well while they hold it.  What has our U.S. Senate and House done under Republicans?  Nothing but rant because they don't have even more power.  


I have to make one exception to my general dismissal of Republican performance while in elected office, though it pains me to admit it.  We actually have a rather good governor.  Surprised the tar out of me, but Nathan Deal has grown as a human being, as a leader while he has been governor.  Now, if he would just deal with creating more water reservoirs, health care in rural areas, and get off it about charter schools - he could do even more good.  


Public schools are the heart and life and future of a community.  Look at that word "community."  We have government so that we can act in concert for the good of the communities in which we live.  Community schools are our future because that is where our children will learn skills to live by and one of the places where they will learn how to be a member of a community.  Don't abandon them in favor of commercial interests.  We can only lose.

Starik
Starik

@Cobbian In North Dekalb people aren't allowed to have community schools. Decatur is the exception.

MarkVV
MarkVV

To IReportYouWhine:

 “The last recovery from a recession averaged at least 4% growth per quarter, compared to the current rate of 1%.”

Why don’t you read what I have written, if you are responding. Any “last recovery from recession” happened at a different time and under different conditions.

“There are currently 95,000,000 Americans without a job, close to 30%, but your beloved administration reports this as 4% unemployment.”

The administration reports the unemployment figures the same way it has done before, including at the time when you and others have attacked Obama using that very same unemployment percentage. It only became unimportant when it went down below 6%.

“Yes, black lives matter, unless they reside in a city run by democrats. Are you willing to say the cops kill more blacks than other blacks do?”

Why do you address that question to me? I have never written that, not even discussed that issue.

“For pointing these facts out you call me a racist. It amazes me that I care more about inner city blacks than you do but I am the racist. How can you look at yourself in the mirror?”

Why are you lying so much? Here is a challenge: Show where I called you a racist, or apologize.

 “This election is about the country, do you love it or not? I've heard enough from the democrats to know that they do not love it, they consider us as destroyers of the environment, oppressors of minorities, haters of women, worldwide rampagers where no evidence of these things exist.”

Again, why are you lying? For one thing it is, using the words of Hillary Clinton, “grossly generalistic,” And pointing out flaws is evidence of love, because people want the country to be better. And there is plenty of evidence that there is room for improvement, whether it is in what we are doing to the environment, in race relations and other issues. Closing eyes to that is what harms the country.

“I myself have grown tired of people like you labeling the most generous and giving country in the world as though it is some sort of nazi recreation, we are nothing of the sort.”

More lies. “People like you…” Again I challenge you to quote me where I have written anything like that, or apologize. If you do not, I will call you a liar and person without honor.

lvg
lvg

@MarkVV Trump's form of "nazi recreation "(see above):


"""The Trump Foundation made an illegal gift to a group backing the reelection of Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Critics have argued that donation was a quid-pro-quo, as Bondi’s office soon afterwards dropped its own inquiry intoTrump University, but both Trump and Bondi deny this. In any case, nonprofits cannot give to political campaigns, and the Trump Foundation had to pay a $2,500 fine to the IRS. In a letter dated July 15, obtained by NBC, Schneiderman requested details and documents related to the donation, as well as specifics of a May 11, 2016 training session and any other training the foundation conducted to ensure it will not use its funds for political purposes in the future.

Post reporter David Fahrenthold, meanwhile, has shown that Trump’s charity was mostly a pass-through for other people’s money, with the entertainer giving little to it. On a couple of occasions, it appears that the foundation shelled out five figures to buy items that went to the Trump family, including a large portrait of Donald Trump and a football helmet signed by Tim Tebow. That would appear to violate IRS rules against “self-dealing,” or using charities to purchase items for one’s self."""

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/donald-trump-scandals/474726/


Closing one's eyes to the biggest con artist to ever run for president is the same as supporting him.




MarkVV
MarkVV

@lvg @MarkVV Closing one's eyes to the biggest con artist to ever run for president is the same as supporting him.”

If you have written the above comment as a response to my response to the accusation that I have “labeled the most generous and giving country in the world as though it is some sort of nazi recreation,” I would point out the fact that I have never stated anything like that, and therefore I rejected that claim. I would never use those terms, being quite familiar with what Nazism means. Therefore I do not find it appropriate to use that label even for Trump’s activities, even though I do find his campaigning dangerously reminiscent of that of a certain “Leader” in a not that distant history, as I have pointed out in the past. I certainly have not shown having closed my eyes to the dangers Trump’s campaign demonstrates.

lvg
lvg

@MarkVV @lvg I was responding to the same fascist comments you were quoting of I reportyouwhine not yours.

JuliaK
JuliaK

Kyle, I know and respect you, and you have remained amazingly open-minded during this entire campaign. But, the truth remains that many of us to not subscribe to the America that Trump is proposing. We understand that much of what he is saying can be backed by our 200+ year old constitution, we just do not believe that a current interpretation of that document and its Amendments includes racism, sexism, elitism, and the arming of an entire first world country.

For that reason, I will do my best to prevent that from happening, including voting for a politically slick Democratic nominee, an ill Democratic nominee, a dying Democratic nominee, or a grasshopper named Marvin. And, if Trump wins, I will move - not because I'm angry or don't love America, but because I believe in the mantra of "if you don't like it here, move." And because a a Trump America is not my America.

Starik
Starik

@JuliaK Hang in there. Elections are held all the time.

lvg
lvg

How many of those 40 million white voters who are  worshipers of the Orange Clown are going to tune in tomorrow to Dr. Oz to watch the con man present his fake physical??. How many are too stupid to realize it is another con job by the Orange Clown? 

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@lvg Trump hit Ohio and Florida today while hillary laid in bed. You need to shut your lying mouth, lvg, shut it tight. You do not represent America, you represent something that feeds off of America and needs to be eradicated. It is too obvious.

lvg
lvg

@IReportYouWhine @lvg Yeah your going to really enjoy the Dr. Oz show-so will others in the Stupid party. I bet you believe Trump gave millions to charity too and that he has a real university too.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@lvg @IReportYouWhine You cannot distract me with your silly propagandist lies and half truths. I can see the skyscrapers with my own eyes, they have Trump's name written all over them. I can see his successful businesses, they employ women and minorities and there are photographs to back this up. What you bring to the conversation is nothing but an ignorant hatred, a decisive, stupid and foul rhetoric that does nothing to advance the cause of this great country but only divides it, pits it against itself. 


You are the enemy.

lvg
lvg

@IReportYouWhine @lvg Explain how Trump gets $150 million dollar tax write off for Trump Tower while pocketing tens of millions in profits every year. Another neat trick is  how he fleeced those illegal Polish workers of hundreds of thousands in wages so he could do the demolition and construction on the cheap. Your kind of business man. Real classy.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@MarkVV Mark,


The last recovery from a recession averaged at least 4% growth per quarter, compared to the current rate of 1%.


There are currently 95,000,000 Americans without a job, close to 30%, but your beloved administration reports this as 4% unemployment.


Yes, black lives matter, unless they reside in a city run by democrats. Are you willing to say the cops kill more blacks than other blacks do?


For pointing these facts out you call me a racist. It amazes me that I care more about inner city blacks than you do but I am the racist. How can you look at yourself in the mirror? 


This election is about the country, do you love it or not? I've heard enough from the democrats to know that they do not love it, they consider us as destroyers of the environment, oppressors of minorities, haters of women, worldwide rampagers where no evidence of these things exist.


Why can't democrats just debate the issues without demeaning their own country?


This is going to end, one way or the other. I myself have grown tired of people like you labeling the most generous and giving country in the world as though it is some sort of nazi recreation, we are nothing of the sort. And we do not need people like you accusing us of such things. It would be in your, and all of your kinds, best interest to stop calling us things that we are not. 


Trust me, you do not want to continue down this road. We are growing very tired of it.

lvg
lvg

@IReportYouWhine @MarkVV I guess this  unfortunate fellow would  consider this an indication of the success of the Orange clown as a true American capitalist:


"""Alexia Palmer is suing Trump Model Management, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s modeling agency, for allegedly stealing the money it promised her and violating immigration laws. The suit may get approval to move forward as a class-action lawsuit by the end of the month.

In a lawsuit filed in 2014, Palmer says she was promised a salary of $75,000 a year, a figure that was listed on the H-1B application the company filled out to sponsor her immigration to the United States from Jamaica in 2011 when she was 17.

But in court documents, she says she received just $3,880.75 over three years for 21 modeling gigs after the company deducted a number of high-end expenses from her pay.

The contract stipulated that Palmer would reimburse the agency for costs and expenses, but she charges that it took 80 percent of her pay for things ranging from postage and phone costs to forcing her to take walking lessons, dermatology appointments, and expensive limousine rides.""

https://thinkprogress.org/model-accuses-trump-modeling-agency-of-paying-her-just-4-000-for-three-years-of-work-caae2d5a76fc#.jlgd5pqh3


Misstating  workers income on a H1B1 application carries serious penalties. 


But hey what is a little immigration fraud to the Orange Clown???

Starik
Starik

@lvg @IReportYouWhine @MarkVV Us retirees don't want no stinking job. If we have enough to live on. Many younger people don't want a job either, there are plenty of ways to get money.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

With GDP under 2%, real unemployment around 10%, national debt around 20 trillion and a federal reserve printing tons of money throughout Obama's two terms in office in order to prop up a weak economy, only a fool would try to make the case for economic success. But we see the water carriers still attempting to do so. Oh well, they are what they are.

insideview
insideview

@SGTGrit  Who is currently the majority in the house and senate? Whose policies created the recession? Republicans. We are sick of Republicans, who were so outraged that a black man could be president of the United States , that they squandered 8 years fighting with him, instead of working with him for the good of ALL people. Donald Trump is what you all deserve for not having the courage to speak up for all Americans.  

MarkVV
MarkVV

It is in the nature of the political process that when one party is in power, mainly when it has the Presidency, the opposing party paints the term(s) before the election in the darkest colors. We can see now an extreme case of this in Trump’s campaign, but it is also displayed in the more “local” sense, such as in the comments on this blog. And while no party is immune to this, that does not mean that those on the receiving end should not fight back.

In the current campaign, which essentially started once President Obama was inaugurated, there are numerous examples. Some here might remember the Obama opponents for a long time crying about the unemployment rate being above 9%, then above 8% (it used to be Little Barry’s refrain repeated ad nauseam). But once the rate dropped below 6% and then below 5%, this statistic became completely unimportant.

Now (for long time already) we have the inanity about the recovery under Obama being too slow, and how it compares badly with what is “normal.” These people apparently believe that the world is static, that there is some universal “norm” for these things, that the way economy behaved in the past should keep behaving, and if it does not (for the worse), it is the fault of the man in the White House. But the world is not the same, things like globalization are very different from the past, and all this criticism is just hot party air with the pretense of economic erudition.

Starik
Starik

@MarkVV It took a long time, and a war to recover from the 1929-1940 depression.  It is taking a while to recover from the Bush near depression.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

@Starik @MarkVV 

You're right it took WWII to get the country out of depression because FDR's programs didn't succeed in doing so, just as Barack Obama's policies haven't succeeded in getting us through the great recession that both political parties along with the financial sector created.

Starik
Starik

@SGTGrit @Starik @MarkVV Bush had no influence? Start two very expensive wars and lower taxes for the people who can most afford to pay?

lvg
lvg

@Starik @SGTGrit @MarkVV 2-3 trillion cost of unfunded wars under W; military buget almost tripled for ten years - 5 trillion there and how many trillions to buy our way out of the Bush depression?And due to Bush tax cuts which cons forced Obama to keep in place a couple trillion more in revenue was lost. Yeah its all the Black Muslim's fault.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45



There seems to be a little bit of confusion about what being a Christian is all about-



Hear the Word of the Lord



John 3:16New International Version (NIV)


16 For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.



I am not a Baptist, and never will be, but I'm thinking that enjoying a few tugs on the slot machine ain't gonna cause you to burn in hell. 





Back to our regularly scheduled liberal propaganda. 

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

"In over a half-century, no Democratic presidential candidate has carried white voters with a college degree," said Michelle Diggles, a senior political analyst with the center-left think tank Third Way, who described the split between the white working class and whites with a college degree as "the most underreported story of this year."............................


In the last presidential election, Barack Obama lost the college-educated white voters by 14 points. But now Clinton is winning this same group by about 8.7 points, according to an average of the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal, CNN/ORC and ABC/Washington Postpolls.


http://www.npr.org/2016/08/12/489499596/the-latest-clinton-converts-white-college-educated-voters


As usual Headley overstates Trump's problem with college educated whites, they always vote GOP and these polls were before Hillary's recent troubles and overall decline in the polls.  She had a 9% point lead, which was good for a Democrat, but probably not so big that he can't overcome it.


White college graduates will come home to the GOP again this year as her dishonesty and untrustworthy numbers continue to increase.. 

Starik
Starik

@RafeHollister White college grads vote democratic nationally. We may live in the south, but there are larger and more rational places.

SGTGrit
SGTGrit

@RafeHollister 

Headley, pulls his stats from where the sun never shines. You read his rants and have to wonder who is he trying to convince. I'm beginning to think mostly himself.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Starik @RafeHollister Sorry, you can pretend that is so, but you didn't read the NPR, yes NPR article.  I copy/pasted the first paragraph for your reading pleasure.  I know you are an elitist and assume all educated folks are elitist, but it just ain't so.

lvg
lvg

So let me get this straight - all those white  GOP folks who did not want to get out and vote for Romney in 2012 are now fired up over the Orange Clown's BS and will turn out in large numbers to vote for the Orange clown. Could it be these folks saw Romney as being  too honest and experienced and truly want a dishonest and  deceitful fascist to take control regardless of the consequences?


If that is the case the only thing that will prevent this deplorable result is  some  reporting by the media. But you have foks like Kyle who think it is more important to swiftboat Hillary.


Wash. Post banned by the Orange Clown. We now know why.

Wash Post examined Trump and Pence's claims that he gave millions to charity and his foundation is funded by Trump's largesse. They could only find $10,000 that Trump gave to any charity ( after contacting hundreds of charities)and his Foundation is a big shell game with no Trump contributions since 2008.That's what real reporters do to educate the public.



Clintons gave 15 million to charity on their taxes  over last eight years.


Any rebuttal by Trump, Pence , Kelly  Annee, or any of the  Trump groupies?

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

and Southern Baptist vote on lock down


Sadly yes. These are the same "Christians " who will tell you gambling is evil. Yet they support the Casino guy Trump


Praise the lord and pass the poker chips !!!!


Hypocrites. Every single one.

Starik
Starik

@lvg @Hedley_Lammar Southern Baptists aren't deep thinkers... unless they're faking the religious angle to get elected or to get along with their families and neighbors.

lvg
lvg

@Hedley_Lammar Hitler would probably get the Southern Baptist vote due to his hatred of Jews and Blacks.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@lvg @Hedley_Lammar I was thinking that Hitler would pull law enforcement out of black neighborhoods and replace them with abortion clinics, you know, like democrats do. 

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Starik @lvg @Hedley_Lammar So, you know all the Southern Baptist?  They are in Hillary's deplorable, irredeemable basket I assume. Statements like this are bigoted and are similar to what Hillary said.  

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

She was diagnosed with mild, non-contagious bacterial pneumonia, her doctor said, a step the campaign took after the candidate had to take three days off the campaign trail after nearly collapsing at an event on Sunday.


http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/politics/clinton-campaign-releases-new-health-information/index.html


Remember how Rafe and others complained that she was contagious and had put all these people at risk. Turns out that was false. Another nothingburger.


And you guys wonder why the Clintons are secretive ?


The crazy part is there ARE legit things to criticize Clinton for. 


Libya for example


But you guys focus on the nothinburgers. And the Clintons continue ( except for against Obama ) to win every election.





RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Hedley_Lammar There is no such thing as a bacterial infection that can't be transmitted to others.  Bacteria that infect others can infect you if you get them on your hands, in your sinuses, or breathe them into your lungs. 


What is the site where you gained this misinformation.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Hedley_Lammar @RafeHollister Pre-med major, not a doctor, but basic science used to be taught in middle school.  Now they teach tolerance for those using the wrong bathroom.


So whose or where is the source of this misinformation, was it Hillary or Slick or some other Clinton propagandist?

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@RafeHollister @Hedley_Lammar Can you not read the article

It isnt very long and I promise no big words.

Dude you deny climate change

Ill believe you were pre med when I see a Unicorn run out on Turner Field .





RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Hedley_Lammar @RafeHollister BS Biology!


Really--- a statement from the campaign, haha, reported by the Clinton News Network.  Did they run it by Dr. Gupta?  I doubt it, he thinks she needs an extensive neurological workup.

weetamoe
weetamoe

I have been hearing so much about republican greed that I was almost convinced that it was true --until this fact --verifiable, as facts are-was revealed today in one of Powell's emails.  He lost a "gig" at a university, he claimed, because Hillary had "overcharged"  the university for her speech and there was just not enough money left to honor his invitation to speak , so his invitation was withdrawn.

H also claimed to have had a "mini-tantrum' at a party in the Hamptons because Hillary and her "minions" would just not stop implicating him in her email troubles.

That must have been quite a sight.

Of course Powell stopped being a republican some years ago--about the time it became clear that he was complicit in the Valerie Plame affair.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

My favorite partial paragraph of the day-


The intelligent Right is slowly crumbling in its huffy apostasy. It is increasingly unclear why George Will and Bill Kristol left the ship, certainly not from nostalgia for what George Will derided 25 years ago as George Bush the elder’s “tinny arf . . . of a lapdog.” These men and their brainy and articulate little cohort are now in an open boat on the great ocean, like Captain Bligh (except they disembarked voluntarily), with nothing but a few oarsmen and a compass. They are eventually going to ask themselves why have they done it.


http://www.nysun.com/national/trump-emerges-in-center-outmaneuvering-clinton-as/89715/


Tell us about it, Conrad.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@IReportYouWhine  The intelligent Right is slowly crumbling 


I dont debate that. Trump is actually losing to Hillary among college educated whites. The rubes are running the show now.


Its going to get uglier. They aren't even hiding things like the misogyny or racism anymore. Trump personifies all that.

RevGray
RevGray

Interesting, just hope he gives Mike Pence a lot of the credit because I am white, middle class, and would not vote for Trump otherwise.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

Another lie bubbles up from the bottom of the liberal cesspool of them-



The emails show Powell regularly corresponding with reporters and friends about the Clinton email server scandal, explaining that his situation was different. When Powell arrived at the State Department, the information technology system was badly dated, he argued. And unlike Clinton, Powell never set up a private server. Instead, he used his personal AOL account, on a server maintained by AOL, and used a government computer for classified communications.



“It is no secret that I used a [sic] unclassified personal email account in addition to my classified State computer,’” Powell wrote to the New York Times’s Amy Chozick.



https://theintercept.com/2016/09/13/colin-powell-emails/



You should never trusted them, Colin.

AndyManUSA#45
AndyManUSA#45

@ernestangelie @IReportYouWhine Yes, and isn't his judgement just as solid as a rock? He advised a snake on how to keep private and official communications legally separate and the snake bit him.


He's probably just been misinformed about Trump, like others I won't mention.