For the first time, Trump holds a national lead over Hillary

AP Photo / Paul Sancya

AP Photo / Paul Sancya

There are few things in politics more worthless than a national, head-to-head, presidential poll more than five months before Election Day. That said, we have hit an ominous milestone for all those who think the GOP has handed the election to Hillary Clinton by nominating Donald Trump. If you look at the Real Clear Politics average this morning, this is what you see:

Trump Clinton RCP Average May 2016

Your eyes do not deceive you; for the first time since pollsters started asking the question, Trump leads Clinton in an average of national, head-to-head polls. He has led in individual polls before, but never in the more reliable average of those polls.

Now, there are the usual caveats: We don’t elect presidents by national popular vote (not yet, anyway); a lead of 0.2 percentage points isn’t much of a lead; the polls that went into the average still have the race within the margin of error; the Huffington Post’s national-poll average still shows Clinton with a lead (albeit her smallest lead since early January). And there’s one more important caveat: Republican voters, their race already over, have begun the process of rallying around the presumptive nominee, whereas Democrats still watching Bernie Sanders fighting for every last delegate have not.

Still.

The prevailing thinking among Democrats, I think it’s fair to say, is that Hillary can start measuring the drapes in the White House because Trump is a) well underwater in terms of favorability with virtually every demographic; b) considered a boor, if not an outright racist, by many voters; and c) a political novice who may not hold up well in the long general-election campaign. The problem for her is that she is a) also widely unpopular; b) considered corrupt and untrustworthy by many voters; and c) someone who lost despite a sense of inevitability eight years ago and who has struggled to put away an old, white socialist in this year’s primary.

In other words, it seems that Democrats have yet to reconcile themselves to the fact that many voters see this November’s contest as an unappealing choice between undesirable candidates because their likely nominee is also deeply, deeply flawed. One of them is (probably) going to win despite their flaws. It might not be Hillary.

This might turn out to be the only day Trump leads Clinton nationally. He might hold a narrow lead, only to watch her numbers rise as she sews up the nomination and Democrats rally to her. Or this might be the beginning of something the way the soaring blue line in this graph from mid-July 2015 was:

Trump GOP RCP average

Reader Comments 0

153 comments
Marcie Mccall
Marcie Mccall

If he make President he going to show all tha people that voted for him something but it's not going to be good lol no respectable people

Sonya Carter
Sonya Carter

If you don't like Hillary, vote Trump and live with the repub congress, supreme court and all of the consequences! #votebluenomatterwho

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

We get the President we deserve. I cannot vote for a candidate that voted for the Iraq War.

Dåemeôn Hôlmës
Dåemeôn Hôlmës

This is what happens when you put out the worst democratic candidate in 28 years, and you allow a non democrat with no party allegiance to run as a democrat instead of an independent.

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

Parties are going the way of the flip phone. Sanders has proven that you don't need a party's backing to be successful.

Keith Neely
Keith Neely

Who cares they're on the same team, he's a great friend to the Clintons and he said Hilary did a great job as secretary of state.

Thomas Morgan
Thomas Morgan

Get the passports ready - this cult of personality in charge is a true nightmare scenario.

Meka Toya Mack
Meka Toya Mack

1. We still do not have a definitive candidate officially chosen. 2. Who exactly did they poll? Most of us would not be on that contact list. #unphased

Bruno2
Bruno2

 Kyle: b) considered a boor, if not an outright racist, by many voters

Is it possible that the Dem strategy of playing the race card ad infinitum is coming back to blow up in their faces??  If you listen to Libs, it's easy to get the impression that everyone in our country is a Victim of some kind, all except successful White males, of course.

lvg
lvg

Where is the 5 million the huckster said he was donating to veterans? Veterans protesting outside Trump Towers got just BS from Donald.


Has he ever paid taxes like the common man?


He said he would demand a Congressional vote to declare war on Terrorists. Trumpster too illiterate to know authorization for War on terror enacted after 9-11. And what is he going to do besides make all Muslims hate the US?


Clinton despite his affairs has never been divorced. How many times has the Drumpf been married?

Is he going to give us a list of all the women he slept with while married?

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

These polls were sure cited by the establishment, when Hillary was way ahead, as an excuse to oppose Trump.  Now crickets from those folks. 

Doug Taylor
Doug Taylor

And Wasserman-schulz and the DNC STILL don't get it...

Tony Kirby
Tony Kirby

A national lead in being a moron

Michael Gilmore
Michael Gilmore

I Like Bernie. ...But Overall. ..This is the Worst Group of Candidates I've seen since I started paying attention

Mark Cosby
Mark Cosby

Can I write in "a half eaten hoagie" on my ballot?

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

It is now 1:40 a.m., May 24, 2016 and I have listened to President Obama's full speech to the people of Vietnam.


He received an immediate standing ovation in Hanoi.  John Kerry is there, standing tall in the audience, with his white hair.


President Obama has such a beautiful mind for this world's future.  How blessed the world has been to have had him as America's president, a man who has had the capability to dream the vision for this world's future and to lead us there.  He is the leader on the world's stage only because the majority of the Americans saw value in this man and elected him as our president, twice.


The contrast of the mind of Barack Obama with the mind of Donald Trump is not even worthy of discussion.  Hopefully, the American people will elect Obama's choice for President, Hillary Clinton, his protege, by a landslide in November, in order to demonstrate to the people of this world what America still stands for and to continue his dream for this world's future.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Your crush gave Iran a pathway to nuclear weapons and $100 billion to fund their Islamofascist terrorism. He cowered before Assad after making playground-style threats and then backing down. Ukraine? Libya? Disasters.

Obama is a coward and a do-nothing.

Americans and Democrats will be safer and better off economically when he's gone from Our White House.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

@lvg @Lil_Barry_Bailout

I will give him credit (and have, here, on several occasions) for droning the hell out of some Islamofascists.  The collateral damage doesn't bother me a bit, either--Islamofascist terrorist fanboys and hangers-on deserve what they get.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@MaryElizabethSings Not one word about human rights abuses in Vietnam, chicken.  Now off to Japan to apologize for retaliating after their sneak attack on Pearl Harbor.  Despicable lack of historical perspective I'd say. 

lvg
lvg

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Yeah all those terrorist leaders killed by US on Obama's orders were due to his devotion to Jeremiah Wright. Too many to count.

Richard Rossell
Richard Rossell

Keith Pflepsen Does the water of Georgia really make the brain into mush? Trump will fold like a cheap suit.

Anju Hoda
Anju Hoda

Come on America!!! Wake up!! Where's your conscience??

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

Conscience? We have two of the worst candidates ever. Trump wants to beef up our war mongering and Hillary has started wars.

Kirby Lile
Kirby Lile

These polls never matter because .... Bueller? Bueller? ... Because we don't elect our presidents by nationwide popular vote with statistical skewing.

Warren Jackson
Warren Jackson

Do you realize that a lot of young men today would rather go to prison then to sign up to fight for a racist trump army

Lou Harrisn
Lou Harrisn

Yet they are dumb enough to fall for the Democrat BS again after 8 years of Obama where Blacks had the highest unemployment in history. You dont learn to fast do you, just follow the sheep poop

Theressa Loyd
Theressa Loyd

Start building your fallout shelters now! Those of you who can't afford to leave the country.

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

The last I checked Hillary sent our military to Iraq.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

The Clinton Foundation, Hillary, and Clinton ally Terry McAuliffe all under FBI investigation. What a bunch of scumbags!

lvg
lvg

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Ah yes members of the stupid party love to call people "scumbags". It is the level at which they think and operate.

Willy Varela
Willy Varela

DO NOT WORRY. this means nothing trump will never be the president. November elections will reveal that americans will not support hate,racism and ignorance.

Mario Tilelli
Mario Tilelli

What has he said that's been racist? C.P.T, O wait that was Killary.

Richard Rossell
Richard Rossell

Mario. What is it with people who live in Texas or Georgia? It must be bad water.

Ashley Analia
Ashley Analia

From your Facebook comment to God's ears (or Facebook feed)

Vivian Davis
Vivian Davis

Oh, so he no longer plans to build a wall and deport Mexicans?? Ban Muslims? CPT was a joke, in bad taste, but no hatred or disdain for an entire race. Go to the dictionary and look up racism.

Michael Dillinger
Michael Dillinger

Willy have you been living under a rock? You give Americans too much credit. They will happily vote for a bombastic moron. Especially if the alternative is a crook that might as well be a robot.

Ray Warren
Ray Warren

Vivian Davis are you a blithering idiot? Racism is an inherit belief of racial superiority...

Alex Groleau
Alex Groleau

Wait... So we are supposed to vote for a criminal warmonger instead?