Just what does New York mean for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

Clinton and Trump

New York: If they can make it there, they can … maybe or maybe not make it anywhere.

New Yorkers head to the polls today, with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton widely expected to win contests that will have much less impact than you’ve been led to believe. The simple fact is that Trump and Clinton might be able to turn the narrative of the campaign back in their respective favors tonight, but neither can win a victory that will give them meaningful separation from their nearest opponents in the only way that truly matters at this stage: delegate math.

Let’s look at the Republican side first. New York offers 95 delegates in a proportional format — 14 statewide, three apiece in the state’s 27 congressional districts — with two important caveats. First, if a candidate clears 50 percent either statewide or in any single district, he gets all the related delegates. Second, in the event delegates are available proportionally (because a candidate didn’t clear 50 percent), one must clear the 20 percent mark to win any statewide delegates and finish second in a given congressional district to win one of its delegates.

Those thresholds matter, because polls in the Empire State have consistently shown Trump just about the 50 percent mark statewide, with John Kasich just above the 20 percent level and Ted Cruz almost always just below it. If Trump underperforms his poll numbers by even a few points — which he has done on occasion in other primaries — he could leave the door open for Kasich and Cruz to claim a handful of delegates here and there. But that’ll matter more if both of those men clear the 20 percent bar. If they do that statewide and also keep Trump below a majority in the congressional districts, he could win everywhere by double-digits but come away with just two-thirds of the state’s delegates. That would be only an incremental improvement in his march toward 1,237 before Cleveland.

But let’s say Trump smashes the others and wins all 95 delegates. And then let’s say he sweeps the other East Coast states that vote next Tuesday, winning the maximum number of bound delegates possible (something like 115 delegates). He’d be getting mighty close at that point to 1,000 — only to watch the nominating contest move back toward the west, and regions where he’s been far less successful. Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon and Washington are the only states that vote in May, and based on the results in similar states we might expect Cruz to experience another resurgence in them. That would leave Trump needing perhaps a sweep in winner-take-all California on the final voting day of June 7 to clinch the nomination. And that will be awfully difficult, considering a) the vast majority of California’s delegates will be awarded by congressional district, and b) Cruz is nipping at his heels in polls of that state.

In short, the math just doesn’t support the hype surrounding New York’s GOP primary. In a race where voters have refused to rally ’round the leader, this fight appears destined to go the distance.

***

Now for the Democratic side. New York offers 247 pledged delegates, but they’ll be awarded proportionally. If I understand the rules correctly, the current polling average in New York would result in Clinton winning 131 pledged delegates and Bernie Sanders taking 116. The superdelegates will almost certainly pad Clinton’s lead, but once again Sanders will walk away with reason enough to stay in the contest and keep Clinton from turning her focus to this fall.

From there, we’ll get the same kind of path as on the GOP side, except that it’s far from clear Clinton will sweep the East Coast states the way Trump may. What polling we have shows Clinton ahead in Maryland and Pennsylvania, but with the race narrowing. And, like the Republicans, Democrats have not allowed Clinton’s lead to deter them from showing up for Sanders in a big way. If Clinton continues to pick up delegates at the same rate as I outlined above in New York, then even if she claims every remaining superdelegate she can’t clinch the nomination until mid-May at the earliest. She has to either pick up the pace or be willing to fight until the end, or darn close to it.

Reader Comments 0

38 comments
Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Trump expected to win among voters who attended public schools in Northeastern states.

Caius
Caius

Popular vote in NY primaries.

Clinton 1,037,344  - Sanders 752,739  total Dem 1,790,083


Trump 518,601 - Kasich 214,755 - Cruz 123,894  total Rep 857,250


98.5% of vote counted.  From Politico



InmanParker
InmanParker

But not in NYC. You were wrong (again, I would add.)

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Oh hell, NYC went full-on scumbag. Hillary does best among race baiters and welfare cases, and Trump among loudmouths.

Dawg^2
Dawg^2

I realize you wrote your article before the results in New York, but based on those results I do not see how Trump does not get to 1237.  He only needs to get approximately 52% of the remaining delegates, and he has significant leads in California and Pennsylvania.  Throughout the nomination process he has averaged 55% of the delegates to 36% for Cruz and 9% for Kasich.  Given he may end up with all 95 New York delegates, and Cruz finishing third, I do not see how he would do worse going forward than he has to date.  Particularly since we know he will win CA and PA.  I believe Hillary has a bigger problem, take away her super delegates and it is a much closer race than the Republicans.  If Bernie should have more regular delegates it will get very interesting.  For all the Democratic party talks about the disenfranchised, that is exactly what they may be doing to the millions of Democratic primary voters. 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Dawg^2 Most of Pennsylvania's delegates (54 out of 71) are unbound, meaning Cruz could finish last and still pick up half of the delegates, or more. As in other states with peculiar rules, Cruz is showing he understands them and is taking full advantage (like him or not).

As for California, first the polls show it's a single-digit race between Trump and Cruz with well over a month to go; anything could happen. Second, while it is winner-take-all, as I explained above the vast majority of delegates (159 out of 172) are awarded by congressional district. So even if Cruz finishes second, if it's close there's an excellent chance he's going to win a number of CDs.

In short, there's still a good chance we end up with no one over 1,237, although obviously it helps Trump that he did so well in NY (~90 delegates out of 95).

MarkVV
MarkVV

The current penchant of the conservatives to attack “political correctness” is quite revealing. Because PC is described as “forms of expression or action that are perceived to exclude, marginalize, or insult groups of people who are socially disadvantaged or discriminated against, “one can only conclude that those people attacking PC are people who agree with excluding, marginalizing, or insulting groups of people who are socially disadvantaged or discriminated against.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Or, you're a clown.

And you might want to re-read what you wrote. You're not even competent to cut and paste correctly.

MarkVV
MarkVV

@Lil_Barry_Bailout It  is also revealing that you are intellectually incapable of filling in the missing words "avoidance of forms ..."

DaveFrancis
DaveFrancis

DONALD TRUMP IS THE ONLY ONE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, WHO WILL BUILD THAT WALL AND STOP THE DRUGS ARRIVING THROUGH OUR OPEN SOUTHERN BORDER. 100 OF MILES OF OUR FRONTIER WITH MEXICO THAT HAVE ONLY A FEW STRANDS OF RUSTY BARBED WIRE.

TRUMP WILL STOP THE ILLEGAL ALIEN INVASION FOR GOOD, AND THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY SPENT ON THESE PEOPLE WILL GO TO CITIZENS AND LAWFUL IMMIGRANTS.

AMERICA IS RUN BY THE INFLUENTIAL, SO CALLED INTELLIGENCER, WHICH BUYS OUR LAWMAKERS VOTES, WHEREAS THEY CANNOT BUY DONALD TRUMP? THEY ARE ALARMED AND INCENSED BECAUSE THEY CANNOT BUY HIS LOYALTY. HE WILL STOP THE ILLEGAL ALIENS, THE DRUG INVASION BY BUILDING THE WALL AND TRACKING TECHNOLOGY WITHIN OUR COUNTRY. 

DON'T LISTEN TO THE MAJORITY OF THE NATIONAL PRESS AS THEY WILL MISLEAD YOU, SINCE THEY ARE OWNED BY 6 MEDIA OWNERS AND DO NOT WANT A CHANGES TO OUR THINGS ARE; AS IT WILL TAKE AWAY THEIR POWER AND INFLUENCE. BOTH TED CRUZ AND JOHN KASICH ARE BOTH BROUGHT AND PAID FOR BY SPECIAL INTEREST A LARGE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM GEORGE SOROS A EXTREME SOCIAL- COMMUNIST?

PLEASE DON'T LISTEN TO ME? USE GOOGLE TO CHECK OUT THE FACTS? IF WE LISTEN TO THE MAINSTREAM PRESS THAT HAS AN ULTERIOR MOTIVE, THEN AS AMERICANS WE ARE JUST FOOLING OURSELVES?

Currently the Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments in a case brought by Texas and 25 other states challenging the Obama administration’s attempt to give legal status and work authorizations to more than four million illegal immigrants.

At the argument, the justices wrestled with whether the Obama administration exceeded its authority and whether the states have standing to sue.

Here are the four issues the Supreme Court justices are considering:

Do the states have standing to challenge this program?

Is the program a lawful exercise of the Secretary of Homeland Security’s authority under existing immigration laws?

Is the program subject to the Administrative Procedure Act’s notice-and-comment procedures?

Does the program violate the Take Care Clause of the Constitution?

U.S. Solicitor General Don Verrilli was first up at the oral argument. Nearly half of his time was taken up with questions about whether the states have standing to bring this suit.

In any lawsuit, the plaintiff must establish there is an actual injury that is fairly traceable to the defendant’s conduct and it is capable of being redressed by a court. The lower court held that Texas has standing to sue because Deferred Action for Parents of Americans would enable at least 500,000 illegal aliens to receive subsidized Texas driver’s licenses, costing the state millions of dollars.

DaveFrancis
DaveFrancis

The Obama administration has argued that this injury is “one of Texas’s own making,” because the state could eliminate its driver’s license subsidy program. At the oral argument, Chief Justice John Roberts seized on this, pointing out that it’s “a real catch 22” if Texas can’t sue based its financial injury from granting driver’s licenses when it might be sued by the federal government if it fails to do so. Every one of those newly admitted immigrants represents a new demand on America’s schools, roads, healthcare, and other public services by people who has contributed all but zero to funding them. Citizens have worked all their lives and millions of people come into our nation and collect welfare and every other public service, while Obamas administration has served to the American people a $19 plus Trillion dollar deficit that's climbing. You have to ask why this lame-duck president is pandering to millions of illegal aliens, when our Senior low income Citizens can hardly exist on what they get and the fact that Vets, who came home maimed and broken have to wait for appointments, and now its known many commit suicide or die waiting?

America has become a hive of Political correctness, since Obama came into office 7 years ago; it has been a Leftist radical plot, which has been regressive to essentially transform America into a third world country.  Look at what this President has achieved by the time he leaves the White House. Allowing millions of illegal aliens to enter the country, claiming he has executive right to enter without any encumbrance from the US Border Patrol and even any need to see a judge. There are limits even to a sitting President, according to Article (1) of the Constitution, but he has already spat on the Congress that he has a lawful right, to do as he wishes, but to ignore the overwhelming majority that citizens who want serious enforcement.

Not only the illegal alien invasion caused by Obamas failure to stop this travesty, but because of the 14th amendment and the fabrication that not only slaves that after the Civil War can gain citizenship, but yet people admitted through chain-migration or the so-called family reunification policies that led to the admission of 1,976,122 immigrants to America in the last three years driven by Obama.

The current level of immigration, even without amnesty, will add nearly 15 million new potential voters by 2036, a large share of whom will favor the left. The number of illegal aliens has been really fudged, as the statistics have remained the same for years. The relative figures could be well over 20 million plus, is more in the range.  By allowing this to happen it will make Republicans and conservatives a permanent political minority for this nation. One thing that has remained dormant is ending the ITIN number in place of the Social Security Number. Illegal aliens are using this to the full extent, assisted by the IRS. It's beyond logic that illegal aliens can fill in child taxation reimbursement without paying in a darn cent. The IG report stated that more than 2.3 million persons who did not have Social Security numbers valid for working in the U.S. got an average of roughly $1,800 each in 2010 in child tax credit refunds. That included 9,000 illegal aliens who each got a total of $10,000 or more by retroactively claiming credits for tax years prior to 2010.

Are we going to keep paying for illegal aliens, which the current amount that we are forced to pay $113 Billion and climbing upwards daily? Additionally, soon we will have an even worse federal deficit of  2.2 Trillion dollars added to the 19 Trillion and upwards shortfall  after the new Omnibus budget that was approved by Congress, with Speaker Paul Ryan giving all the funds Obama wanted to fund his economy killing issues.

MarkVV
MarkVV

@DaveFrancis “America has become a hive of Political correctness, since Obama came into office 7 years ago; it has been a Leftist radical plot, which has been regressive to essentially transform America into a third world country.”

It is hard to believe that an intelligent person would write such a drivel.

RoadScholar
RoadScholar

@DaveFrancis "Every one of those newly admitted immigrants represents a new demand on America’s schools, roads, healthcare, and other public services by people who has contributed all but zero to funding them."

Uh they pay sale tax,income tax is taken from their pay, they pay property taxes whether they own or rent.... liquor taxes, gas tax..... Now if paid in cash, then the citizens are to blame...cheap labor and circumventing the law. I have a very conservative friend who complains about the same thing and then uses illegals for yardwork because they are hard workers, are cheap, and he pays them in cash. Hypocrite?

USMC2841
USMC2841

I think voters have rallied in Colorado but you wouldn't know from the delegates. I agree Cruz is winning in the Republican system but will there be enough voters left in it to carry him or whoever the final nominee is to the White House.  Will the GOPe be happy to cede the election to the Dems rather than face the will of their base?  In several instances we've already seen delegates choose Hillary over Trump, who represents a majority of Republican voters.

MarkVV
MarkVV

@Kyle_Wingfield @USMC2841 Not quite true. A vote for a candidate is not necessarily a vote against another one. It can mean simply preference.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@MarkVV Semantics. There are no second-place votes or "I liked him too" votes. You either get a vote or you don't.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@USMC2841 "Trump, who represents a majority of Republican voters"

Once again, this is not true. Trump has won less than 40% of the cumulative popular vote so far: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Thus a "majority of Republican voters" have, in fact, voted against Trump, not for him.

ATLAquarius
ATLAquarius

I know you are not for Trump but are you for Cruz?

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

It's hilarious that Democrats think northeastern states are so intellectually superior to we Southern rubes, and yet so many of those deep-blue states go for Trump!

MarkVV
MarkVV

@Lil_Barry_Bailout It is hilarious to believe that the popularity of Mr. Trump among the Republicans in any state is in any way a measure of the intellectual quality  - or the lack of it - of that state.

Jefferson1776
Jefferson1776

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Yankee republicans are much like the rednecks from the south when it comes to politics and political solutions that never work. Now that's what is funny.

GaLatino
GaLatino

@Lil_Barry_Bailout That's driven largely by the rural portions of those states, which is larger than most of you would believe.  In NYC, Trump is HUGELY unpopular, and wouldn't even win a race for mayor.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

I doubt tonight's primary results will back up your opinion.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

...and conversely, in the racist South, Hillary cleans up!

Maybe it's our huge population of welfare hounds?

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

Looking at and listening to the front-runners, the term "cheap date" comes to mind when considering their voters.

My preferred candidates rarely make it to the front porch, much less the front door.

DING D*NG!


RoadScholar
RoadScholar

"In short, the math just doesn’t support the hype surrounding New York’s GOP primary."

Isn't "hype" a NY value?

When does the lawyer for the Washington madam reveal who is  in her "book"?