Face it, Republicans: Donald Trump has already cost you this election

His supporters will be going that way if someone else is nominated.  (AP Photo / Seth Perlman)

His supporters will be going *that* way if someone else is nominated. (AP Photo / Seth Perlman)

The latest round of primaries is over, and Republican hand-wringing is in full swing. Should they bow to Donald Trump’s insurgency? Can Ted Cruz still beat him? (Do they even want Cruz to win?) Should they find a Republican to run an independent campaign against Trump if he’s the nominee? What’s their best chance of keeping control of the Senate?

To answer those questions, they must start from one crucial premise: The November election is already lost. Pretending otherwise will only lead to worse outcomes in the long run.

Trump has assured the split in the party will come, and that it will be deep. With every new low he hits, he pushes more traditionally Republican voters away.

But with every victory he notches, he also assures a larger segment of the electorate won’t stand for a different nominee. After Tuesday’s results, he warned/threatened “you’d have riots” if he were denied despite having a plurality of delegates. Never mind that the rules allow for just such a scenario: “I wouldn’t lead it,” he said Wednesday, “but I think bad things would happen.”

Feel free to picture him winking before that “but.”

So it’s very likely that Trump can’t count on a lot of traditionally Republican voters, and that a more traditional Republican nominee, including Cruz, can’t count on Trump’s backers. That is not a recipe for general-election success. It’s how Hillary Clinton wins a landslide.

But landslide or not, a Clinton victory in November looks more likely than ever. Indeed, imagining a scenario in which the Democrat doesn’t defeat this divided GOP is what’s becoming more and more difficult.

Trying to paper over the wide differences within the GOP that have been exposed during this primary season would, then, be futile. Freed from that impulse, however, what leaders the party has left might identify different priorities.

The GOP that is slouching toward Trump is not one that can win in future years, either. It’s not just that the “movement” Trump claims to lead has no unifying theme beyond his own proclaimed greatness at making deals and, well, being himself. (Here’s another actual thing Trump said in the afterglow of Tuesday, this one about whom he consults on foreign policy: “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain, and I’ve said a lot of things.”)

It’s also because the “movement” Trump claims to lead is one that, by definition, cannot grow because it is predicated on pitting certain people against virtually everyone else. It is a self-limiting movement, the biggest limitation being the number of people who might want to join it.

The portion of the GOP stopping short of joining Trump, then, must ask themselves a question: Is their party really better off for the direction, and tone, and paucity of thought, and reliance on personality and ego he has given it? Or would it be better off without him and his thinking, such as it is?

That party might be able to fix the problems to which he has given a voice but little actual thought or hope of a solution. But it won’t come about as long as Republicans pretend they’re still fighting for November, and not everything that comes after.

Reader Comments 0

275 comments
lvg
lvg

Not discussed by Kyle: 


Lunatic fringe of GOP (below) wants us to believe issue is 47% who get some form of government benefits including elderly, disabled and veterans. Key issue which Trump has capitalized on is the 1% got fat and rich by outsourcing of jobs and the addiction of Americans for cheap foreign made goods which is causing huge trade imbalances. Too many of America's factory workers were betrayed by both parties entering into trade agreements  with China that only  made the 1% richer. Don't hear anyone else except Bernie preaching to that choir. Chances are if Hillary is nominated, Bernie's voters will go to Trump or third party.Since  other GOP candidates don't address the Bain Capital/David Perdue/outsourcing issue, Trump will be the nominee and might get elected since clinton's husband signed trade legislation giving China right to raidand plunder US factories.


How much would an Apple I -phone cost if made in the USA?How much of goods at Walmart are made in China?

lvg
lvg

Before the Constitutional Convention, Madison undertook an extraordinarily thorough study of various forms of government. How might the Constitution protect us from what Aristotle called “the insolence of demagogues”?

Among the defects of ancient and modern republics, Madison wrote, were “popular assemblages, so quickly formed, so susceptible of contagious passions, so exposed to the misguidance of eloquent and ambitious leaders, and so apt to be tempted by the facility of forming interested majorities, into measures unjust and oppressive to the minor parties.”

Which brings us back to Donald Trump. No one would mistake Mr. Trump for eloquent, but he is a highly effective communicator in a political culture that is now almost indistinguishable from the reality TV culture from which he emerged. But the Trump phenomenon isn’t just about coarsening and stupidity: His political practices are precisely what the founders feared and Lincoln warned against."""



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/opinion/campaign-stops/the-man-the-founders-feared.html?


Shame members of Stupid party like Lil Barry don't understand history and cannot accept that their party is a disaster like Kyle now believes.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Oh, I accept that Real Americans are challenged these days, including by a party that doesn't follow through on campaign promises to restore government to its proper role, and to effectively counter the Democrats' liberal fascism.

By the way, most of the folks in the "stupid party" have enough intelligence and ambition to be able to pay their own bills, unlike loser Democrat parasites. Maybe y'all should be called the Scumbag Party.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Liberal fascist Democrats and their poorly-educated herd need to be reminded that the appropriate response to speech they disagree with is more speech. Not violence, and not depriving Real Americans of their rights.

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

I can't believe the Divider-in-chief envisioned creating someone even more divisive, but he set the standard.  http://www.weeklystandard.com/dividers-not-uniters/article/2001638 

But for a moment, consider the contributions of Barack Obama. Because as divisive as Donald Trump is, all he has done is raise the bar set by the most divisive president since Reconstruction.

As an empirical matter, it's maybe more precise to say that Obama is the most divisive president since Eisenhower, because that's when Gallup began measuring such things: By the pollster's reckoning, the partisan gap in Obama's 2012 approval rating is a yawning, historic 76 points. Remember how divisive the Bush years were? The Obama years have been worse. And it's not just a partisan divide. In 2014, a Washington Post/ABC News poll asked respondents if they viewed Obama as more of a divider or uniter. It wasn't even close among independ-ents, 59 percent of whom said he's been a divider.

Caius
Caius

Obama election notes - popular vote:


2008  Obama 53%, McCain 45.7%, other 1.3% - turnout 58.2%


2012  Obama 51%, Romney 47%, other 2% - turnout 54.8%


The top Republican candidate for the nomination is averaging 37% to date.

The Republican turnout exceeds the Democratic turnout.


Can the Democrat carry the women's vote at 55% or better as Obama did?


Will Republicans have to deal with a third party candidacy either by Trump or 

a put up candidate from the GOP wing?


Effect of Trump University trials and Clinton e-mail?



Wascatlady
Wascatlady

256 comments, Kyle.  You have ticked some folks off really badly.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Scumbag Democrats violating Americans' rights in Arizona now. Preventing freedom of assembly and free speech at a Trump rally.

Liberal fascists cheer.

lvg
lvg

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Kyle- Any reason you let this foul languaged sicko keep posting here?????????????

Signed In
Signed In

It's the donor class which will inflict a second Clinton Administration on us. 

Or is it the campaign cash which donors shower on Republican leaders for playing along with Obama's refusal to enforce our immigration laws?

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Virtually all riots are started by intolerant Democrat thugs.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Democrats' brains aren't fully developed. They're stuck at an immature state where if they don't get what they want, or someone says something they don't like, they throw a tantrum.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

The majority of Democrat voters can't even manage to pay their own bills.

Now THAT is a sign of stupid.

MarkVV
MarkVV

@Lil_Barry_Bailout I do not know about "not fully developed brains of the Democrats, but writing "The majority of Democrat voters can't even manage to pay their own bills." proves that it is a product  of a brain that has not even started to develop yet.

Starik
Starik

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Tolerance has nothing to do with riots. Riots happen when law enforcement breaks down and people have the opportunity to steal stuff.


Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

@Starik @Lil_Barry_Bailout

The recent riots associated with Trump rallies have everything to do with tolerance.  Liberal goons don't have it and are throwing tantrums so people who aren't like them (employed Real Americans) are prevented from exercising their rights.

Tycho
Tycho

Not to worry. Sean Spicer is drawing up  the RNC Rules Committee tonight. 2 from each state. These 100 citizens can eliminate Trump with a stroke of their rules pen. Priebus is preparing the playbook to demonize the Occupy Convention movement and put down any Tea Party rioting. .Fox News is looping  feeds to destoy the the Trump Lives Matter movement. 

Ain't Republican democracy grand.

lvg
lvg

Poor Kyle can't figure out what happened to his party!

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Gosh, I'd hate to see Obama sycophants Reed and Blank not get their Super Bowl!

TheCentrist
TheCentrist

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Gosh, we hate to see Deal and social conservatives who mooch off the attributes sports and big business in Georgia not get their religious discrimination bill.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

The bill prohibits discrimination. Not that you'll let facts get in the way of your religiophobia.

Starik
Starik

@Lil_Barry_Bailout It prohibits discrimination against people who claim their religious beliefs require them to discriminate.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

It protects the First Amendment rights of citizens against those who would like to force them to act against their beliefs.

Fixed it for ya.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

 It is ironic that the Republican Party insisted that Trump pledge to support the party yet they do not support him.


Not really


At the time no one would have dreamed Trump would be able to pull a third of Republicans to his side  with a message of hate, fear, and Ill fix everything because I have a big penis.


But he has.  Sad commentary on the GOP for sure.


The pledge then was to keep Trump from pulling a Nader when he handed the 2000 election to Bush by taking around 2 or 3 percent away from Gore.


That isn't irony. Its just badly misreading the situation.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

@Hedley_Lammar

Trump's antics reflect on Trump, not on Republicans.

He isn't one.

We do understand your desire to confuse the two, though.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

@Lil_Barry_Bailout @Hedley_Lammar

Whatever he is, he is destroying the modern GOP. Which is a good thing. Because it needs a wholesale makeover. You're not the only Real American (TM) in this land, LilBar.

TheCentrist
TheCentrist

@Lil_Barry_Bailout @Hedley_Lammar Trumps antics reflect Trump and every social conservative in Georgia, and everywhere else, who has voted for him.  He registered to run for POTUS as a Republican; therefore, he is one. However, there may be some confusion if he is a social conservative, but not a Republican.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Trump ran as a Republican because he couldn't beat Hillary in the Democrat primaries.

stogiefogey
stogiefogey

The Donald's comment about consulting his mental powers reminds me of Jay Leno's long ago skit character "Mr. Brain". Kinda miss Leno, the new Tonight guy's a bit too vocal about his political leanings.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Democrats and Trumpkins are two sides of the same coin.  They both want more government and more totalitarianism.

Try to remember what it's like to be an American.

TheCentrist
TheCentrist

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Therefore, could it be said that at least 90% of the people who have voted for Trump in the Republican primary will vote for the Democratic nominee, if he is not nominate?

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Claims that Trump is a conservative or a Republican are just as idiotic and ignorant as claims Hillary is center-right.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@Lil_Barry_Bailout Hillary is center right


Trump is very Conservative on many issues such as immigration ( deportation ) and banning Muslims. This is where his support comes from.

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

Trump is still stuck on a 35% average.  His %s aren't going up.  He is very beatable if the opposition consolidates.  Saw an article (can't find it now) that compared his results to Romney's in a chart.  Romney was averaging 43% and had a definite upward trajectory.  Trump has been pretty flat and is only at 35%.

GaLatino
GaLatino

@xxxzzz Correction... he WAS beatable.  If they would have consolidated at least back before South Carolina, you'd be right.  Problem is, too many stayed in, and the more candidates you have, the easier it is to be the "winner" when you don't even get 40% of your party's voters.  Trump is a virtual lock for the nomination, which means repubs have virtually already lost the general election.

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

@GaLatino @xxxzzz If Cruz carries Utah with 50% and finishes first in Arizona and California, he is ahead of Trump in delegates.  He only has to break even on the rest of the states.  There's a good chance he does that in Utah.  California isn't until June 7th.  Arizona likely will be close but there haven't been many polls there.