Donald Trump wins Georgia, may be in trouble elsewhere (Updated)

(AP Photo / Mark Humphrey)

(AP Photo / Mark Humphrey)

The early result from Georgia is not surprising: Donald Trump has been declared the winner, with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio battling for second place. That’s based purely on exit polls, which show:

  • Trump 40 percent;
  • Cruz 23 percent;
  • Rubio 22 percent.

As I explained earlier, that doesn’t mean Trump will run away with the delegate count. These three should easily cross the 20-percent threshold needed to qualify for statewide delegates, so Trump should get a little less than half of those. Depending on how the race shakes out in each congressional district, Cruz or Rubio could finish fairly close to him when all the delegates are awarded. He’ll almost certainly get a smaller share of the delegates in Georgia than he had in the first four states combined.

As for the rest of the country, it could be a better night than expected for the non-Trumps. Exit polls in Virginia show Rubio might finish ahead of Trump there, buoyed by a very strong showing in the D.C. suburbs. In fact, if John Kasich were not still in the race, Rubio most likely would have run away with the vote in Virginia. As it is, they’ll probably come out even in the state’s straight-proportional system.

The only other state where the polling stations have closed is Vermont, and there Kasich and Trump are neck-and-neck according to the exit polls.

With Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Minnesota still voting but believed to be competitive states for the non-Trumps — not to mention Alaska, about which no one seems to know much in the way of expectations — there’s a chance Trump wins six or fewer of the 12 states up for grabs today. If that happens, it should dramatically change the narrative from the huge wins he racked up in the last three states.

UPDATE at 9:37 p.m.: Texas and Oklahoma have been called for Cruz, a huge boost to his fortunes after a tough loss in South Carolina. He and Rubio are also within a few points of Trump in Arkansas; I guess it turns out Cruz was running in the Southwest Conference Primary, not the SEC Primary.

Virginia was called for Trump. The (apparently) 3-point loss for Rubio is a bitter one; few thought he was going to win it going into today, but his campaign seemed to get its hopes up during the day and saw their man in a virtual tie in the exit polls. If Rubio had won a state before today, such a narrow loss might not have stung so bad. As it is, what looked like a breakthrough turned into another runner-up showing. Rubio was never going to be able to avoid a loss in Florida on March 15, but it’s unclear to me if that alone will be enough. And his task in his home state may be getting harder with reports that Florida Gov. Rick Scott is endorsing Trump …

Reader Comments 0

36 comments
Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Kinda funny that all the Bernie supporters will end up voting for Hillary, the most corrupt, dishonest, unimaginative candidate in the race.

Caius
Caius

Re a brokered Republican convention. Trump is "winning" but he is really not winning.

Here are the winning percentages for Trump last night as reported this AM by Politico:

43.4 - 32.7 - 38.8 - 49.0 - 38.9 - 32.7 - 34.7. That averages to 38.6%. And notice that Trump did not get 50% plus 1 in any of the states.  Is this really winning?

Contrast with Clinton's winning percentages last night, also from Politico.

77.8 - 66.3 - 71.2 - 50.2 - 66.1 - 65.2 - 64.3.  Average 66%. 


If the Republican convention opens and Trump does not have the required 1237 delegates, the idea of a brokered convention becomes a reality.


But it is early in the process and a lot can happen.  Trump has a lawsuit brought by New York for fraud and two civil lawsuits in California that Rubio has started using against him. Time will tell if it will have any effect on the primaries.





tyler_durden
tyler_durden

@Caius Agree completely.  Trump is popular in the way that Professional Wrestling is popular, it's a spectacle and it's loud, aggressive vulagarity appeals to a certain type of person.  However, Trump has alienated all but "his people" and I don't see actual thinking conservatives getting behind him IF he is the actual nominee.  I see them waiting out Clinton and taking another shot in 4 years.  

Frank Smith37
Frank Smith37

@Caius It's a lot harder to garner 50% of the vote when there are more than 2 candidates in the field.  Take a math class and get back to us.

TicTacs
TicTacs

Cruz ready for court yet ?

ObamaYoMama
ObamaYoMama

What are you Trump Haterz going to do when he chews up Hilary and spits her out in the first presidential debate. Just like when she was secretary of state and met Putin and other dominant world leaders, she layed an egg. I heard she even ran out of granny panties on one trip.

zzzzzap
zzzzzap

Your papers morning headline dissolves your "may be in trouble elsewhere" headline. Get off the coolaid.

khcdec
khcdec

if trump would change what little we see of his tax policy, he will likely get some blue votes too......

Frank Smith37
Frank Smith37

  • Kyle, "The Conservatives", and the "disenfranchised Conservatives", in this country have had enough.  We are tired of the gridlock and we are especially tired of "the press" doing the Democrats bidding.  We are tired of political correctness and tired of, again, non-reporting of egregious actions liberals not being reflected in kind.  The dysfunctional "Republican Party" will be realigned and will, hopefully, set this country on the right course.  I agree Bush made some terrible mistakes but the Obama non-administration has been completely derelict its duties.  Hillary scares us to death.  Trump may not win the presidency but Hillary will be the turning point for this country and it won't be what you expect.  







lvg
lvg

@Tim Tinklenutz Another con who can't take responsibility for GOP party's collapse due to extreme right wing  anarchy, bigotry, gerrymandering, inbreeding and disrespect for the president.

bu22
bu22

@lvg @Tim Tinklenutz Another progressive who can't take responsibility for Democratic party's turn to socialism due to progressive anarchy, bigotry against southerners and religious citizens, gerrymandering which lead to a natural Republican reaction when they kicked the Democrats out, inbreeding & recycling (Clinton again) and disrespect for the president (Obama has gotten nothing compared to what the Dems said about W.).  Don't you people ever get embarrassed about being such hypocrites?  Its hard to believe ALL progressives are so totally brain dead.

Pub Heaven
Pub Heaven

Grief stage index for this column:

Bargaining.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@332-206 There will be no acceptance of Trump. I have voted third-party in a number of races and would be perfectly willing to do it if my major-party choices are Trump and Hillary.

ATLAquarius
ATLAquarius

Do you really believe there will be a brokered convention?

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@ATLAquarius If -- IF -- Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida, that becomes a very real possibility.

Two weeks until we find out.

bu22
bu22

@Kyle_Wingfield @ATLAquarius If Kasich stays in then Trump probably rolls.  Kasich and Carson are Donald Trump's best friends.  Both have no hope for anything but making it easier for Donald to win.

Mustang100
Mustang100

Teflon Don, Kyle. Nothing seems to harm him.

Aquagirl
Aquagirl

It's worth the AJC subscription price alone to watch Kyle desperately do everything in his power to minimize Trump.

Keep up the good fight there Kyle. 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Aquagirl Things will change dramatically if Rubio falls below 20% in GA, TX, elsewhere. But with most of metro Atlanta still to come, I think he'll clear that bar here. Have no idea about TX.

It is still about delegates, and Trump still has a ways to go there. If this race gets down to two or three, the states still to come could look very different. And most of those are winner-take-all.

Don't get me wrong, I fully recognize Trump as the nominee is still the most likely scenario. But the delegate math just doesn't match the perception that he's running away with this thing. Yet ...

Bill & Ginny
Bill & Ginny

Man, you are such a hack. Where were you when this birther mess was going on????

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Bill & Ginny Well, that was 5-6 years ago, and unfortunately all my blog archives from then were lost when we switched platforms. If you google "kyle wingfield ajc birther" you will see some references to a couple of them.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

Virginia has been called for Trump, but he and Rubio will be basically tied in delegates.

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

Wow! Its getting kinda cozy in Republican land....

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

Oklahoma exit poll: Cruz 32, Trump 27, Rubio 27.