The revolution rolls on through GOP, Democratic Party in New Hampshire

Trump declares victory in Manchester, N.H. (Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

Trump declares victory in Manchester, N.H. (Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

Since the modern era of presidential primaries began in 1972, the largest margin by which anyone has lost the New Hampshire primary and gone on to capture his party’s nomination is the 18.2-percentage-point defeat George W. Bush suffered at the hands of John McCain in 2000. Other than that, no one has ever lost New Hampshire by double-digits and ended up as the Republican or Democratic nominee. In that context, consider these results from last night:

Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton by 22 points.

Donald Trump beat the second-place Republican, John Kasich, by 19.7 points.

That’s what you call emphasis.*

Not just emphasis, but history. Even among eventual nominees, only Ronald Reagan’s 26.9-point win over George H.W. Bush in 1980 bested either Sanders’ or Trump’s margin. That year was heralded as the Reagan Revolution; Sanders is no Reaganite, but he continued to use the other R-word in a victory speech that prodded his party even further leftward than before.

Among Democrats, Sanders won every group except those 65 and older and those who make at least $200,000. (I’d say she won the groups that look like her, but he also won among women — by 11 points.) In the GOP, Trump won pluralities of every group: across ideologies, income, ages, issues, marital status, education levels. He even beat Ted Cruz among evangelicals (27 percent to 23 percent).

Say what you will about the effect of this primary going forward, and certainly things can change — as Marco Rubio found out since his debate flubs Saturday night. But that same message goes for those who say Sanders can’t win in the South, who say Trump can’t defy the laws of political gravity forever: Things can change.

Yes, Clinton still holds a big polling lead in South Carolina — but it’s also been almost three weeks since South Carolina was polled. The most consistent pollster there has been CBS News/You Gov. Here are its last three polls:

  • November: Clinton 47-point lead
  • December: Clinton 36-point lead
  • January: Clinton 22-point lead

That’s a halving of her lead in the space of two months, and that was before Sanders virtually tied her in Iowa and shellacked her in New Hampshire. What happens if South Carolina Democrats who were with Hillary because they assumed she would win suddenly think Bernie is actually viable?

Similarly, look at the results from New Hampshire on the GOP side, which break down into three roughly similar-size groups:

  • Trump
  • People who are not going to win South Carolina or even come in second (Kasich, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson)
  • People who are fighting for second and could conceivably, but not likely at this point, win South Carolina (Cruz, Jeb Bush, Rubio)

South Carolina is of course a very different place from New Hampshire. For starters, Cruz starts off much stronger there in the polls and organizationally (and it shouldn’t be overlooked that he finished third in New Hampshire despite being outspent by Bush 62-to-1). But one or more of that trio is going to have to take votes away from Trump to defeat him. Maybe they can do it; Cruz certainly did in Iowa. But after a loss in Iowa, Trump now can make the claim that his unconventional politics can actually win. Like Sanders, that may help firm up and even win over support.

Elections are fluid affairs, and primaries all the more so because they are spread through the calendar. All those national polls for the party nominations are mostly good for entertainment because there is no national primary. Each race affects the next. Sanders and Trump aren’t inevitable, far from it. But those who support Clinton or one of the non-Trump Republicans are kidding themselves if they think New Hampshire’s results won’t reverberate over the next couple of weeks.

* Results have been, and will continue to be, updated as votes are reported.

Reader Comments 0

52 comments
Victor Balcazar
Victor Balcazar

The people's President Bernie Sanders \U0001f450\U0001f44d

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

Dear MrsMurrill: When someone flags one comment as offensive, I pay attention. When someone flags 20 comments as offensive, on multiple threads, I don't. Just FYI.

lvg
lvg

Kasich is the joker in the presidential race. Lot's of Hillary voters switched to Kasich. If he is gone- who knows?  

Victor Balcazar
Victor Balcazar

Trump means war!!! Bernie... The people's President!!!

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

I believe the last non-sitting candidate to win New Hampshire and the Presidency was Jimmy Carter...forgive me if I don't get all worked up just yet.

MarkVV
MarkVV

While it is in the human nature to look at primaries as at a horse race, who is ahead, who is likely to win, what are the odds, it should be of greater interest to consider what else are the results saying, especially on the Democratic side. A self-described “democratic socialist” is winning. Even if he loses in the end, the appeal of his message is undeniable. Most polled Democrats in NH want to continue President Obama’s policies or take an even more liberal direction.Combine this with the fact that people of this country who describe themselves as Democrats or leaning to Democrats outnumber those who describe themselves as Republicans or leaning to Republicans. Add to it the numbers and enthusiasm of the young for the Bernie Sanders candidacy, and you might glimpse the future of this country. The US is a representative democracy, and the will of the majority of people eventually will prevail.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@MarkVV and the will of the majority of people eventually will prevail.


Well yeah, if we continue to import folks whose ideology is principally based on experience in other government systems.  If you read the article I posted on immigration in NH, you will see that studies of immigrants reveal that they overwhelmingly favor a large government that provides for their every need.  


So, if the borders stay open and the influx continues, those rugged individualists that value freedom over security are going to be overwhelmed.  The Democrats have tried to peddle socialism lite for years and never convinced enough Americans to go along, so the answer was to just import more socialists.  The GOP has stood down and watched their donors benefit from the cheap labor and are just as much to blame.  


It may be too late, but some Americans are finally waking up to the wholesale sell out of America by both political parties.

MarkVV
MarkVV

@RafeHollister @MarkVV If you believe that most of the young people (as well as most of the the older ones) supporting Sanders are immigrants, then there is no hope for you. 

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@MarkVV My point was a reply to your comment on America in the future being socialist.  The only way that will happen is if they import more socialist, as most Americans eventually grow up and embrace an economic system that works. 

MarkVV
MarkVV

@RafeHollister @MarkVV  As usual, you show your ignorance what socialism means. I have not made any comment about America in the future being socialist.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@MarkVV @RafeHollister No I agree that young people are socialist, they have been since the 60's.  I grew up with thousands of them in the 60's.  Once they grew up and became adults and started paying taxes, most became conservatives.  The old, well Hillary won the 65 and older demographic, the only demographic she won.  Lots of folks supporting Bernie are just sick of the Clintons and the Washington elite.  I believe his support contains a great deal of protests votes as does Trumps. If you think this Sanders boom is some permanent movement, good for you.  I would refer you to the John Anderson phenomenon. 

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Yes, and Toqueville's warning about losing this great country when takers become the majority will be fulfilled.

Talent, ambition, and capital are very, very mobile these days.

Lil_Barry_Bailout
Lil_Barry_Bailout

Sanders can't win because the Democrat party doesn't trust their voters, and has created so many superdelegates that, at present, Hillary leads Bernie 394-42 in delegates, despite a coin-toss win in Iowa and getting shellacked in New Hampshire.

Have a great day, BernieBros!

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

That's certainly a possibility. The facts are clear and damning. Obama's corruption and cronyism could still save her though.

Vicki Risley Cuthriell
Vicki Risley Cuthriell

No where directly, but it is there, overtly. 1) This is the history, this is what happened and will happen so you should vote for these guys cause they're going to win, history proves it., 2) Trump won NH, Trump will win SC so you might as well vote for him, 3) People who are not going to win South Carolina or even come in second (Kasich, Christie, Fiorina, Carson, so don't even waste a vote on them, 4) People who might win SC, but shouldn't, so don't vote for them Cruz, Jeb Bush, Rubio, 5) Hiliary's numbers keep dropping, people are voting for Sander's, so you should to. Maybe I'm the only one who read it that way, but's that the way I read it.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

I think you're the only one who read it that way. I certainly didn't mean it that way.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

Bernie won because its his backyard. He isnt going  to win in South  Carolina nor Nevada


Meanwhile Trump cant be stopped now. Its over.


This is your last chance to pretend what is going on in the GOP, is going on in the Dem camp as well Kyle. Better make it worth it.

Debra Fish
Debra Fish

Gee out of those two, who would I choose? The angry old commie who never held a real job in his life and who's accomplishments are renaming post offices or a successful world class businessman?

MarkVV
MarkVV

What is your definition of a "real job?" Also, if you believe that a democratic socialist" is a "commie,"
 it shows that you education has been badly neglected.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

1. This is an opinion blog, so you're reading my opinion.

2. I'm not telling people how to vote.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/09/5-ways-immigration-impacted-new-hampshire/


Apparently I was totally off the mark when I said immigration probably wouldn't play that big a part of the race in lily white NH. This article paints a awful picture of the toll on NH of our wide open borders.  Obviously this played a part in the overwhelming vote for Trump.  Also voters pointed out that Ford's decision to move even more of their manufacturing to Mexico was huge.  One said we send money and jobs to Mexico and they send low skill workers, we have to subsidize, and drugs back to us, and this has to stop.


Kasich= dead narcissist walking.  He will not do well in the South as you point out Kyle.


Last point, both Hillary and Sanders spent most of their speeches lambasting the "horrible" result of out of control Super Pacs and unregulated campaign donations.  Totally funny that the folks who spent the most money in NH lost big, Hillary and jeb.  Cruz spent less than half million and beat jeb.  Trump spent little.  The effect of money in politics seems to diminish with every election.  The days of buying the prize is declining with the advent of social media and alternative sources of news and better informed voters.

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

@RafeHollister Trump with his free press probably effectively spent vastly more than Hillary and Jeb combined.  All his free press also drowns out what the others are saying.

Aquagirl
Aquagirl

@RafeHollister Mexico sends us low skill workers and drugs because that's what we want. Trump, who presumably understands capitalism, is pandering to fools who think he can magically turn a spigot and stop both.

Caius
Caius

For those terrified of "socialized medicine" and for those praying for "socialized medicine",

Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders offer the following differences on health care:


Trump - "You can't let the people in this country, the people without the money and resources, to go without healthcare. I just can't even imagine. You're sick and you can't even go to a doctor. I say one thing, can you not let 25 percent of the people of the country because they have no money go without something?"


Sanders -  "Medicare for everyone!"


Republicrats both? Demopublicans both?




RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@Caius Difference is Trump wants to bring competition to play among private insurers and come up with another charity system for the poor.  Sanders wants us all to be in the same poor system.

Caius
Caius

@RafeHollister @Caius Nothing like responding the next day.


So here goes.  Trump says for those who cannot afford medical insurance the government will pay for it.



Bruno2
Bruno2

Was I the only one who was surprised by how well Kasich did??  I thought his earlier polling numbers were in the single digits.  Maybe he'll become the "common sense" candidate in contrast to Trump.

I did hear an interesting comment from one of the pundits on CNN last night:  They claimed that Trump and Christie appeal to the same group of voters due to a similar in-your-face-New-Yorker campaign style. If that's the case, then Christie really needs to go back to the drawing board since Trump basically ran the table on him.

At least with a caucus and a primary under our belt, the various prognostications will mean more.  Still, nine long months to go....

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

@Bruno2 No.  He had one poll where he had 20%.  Followed by a poll with 6%.  He was clearly connecting.  The only question was how much.  I thought Cruz would probably finish 2nd, but barely ahead of him.

Caius
Caius

@Bruno2 I was expecting Kasich to do well in NH, he camped out there for months.  That usually pays off. He has not camped out anywhere else.


But he has a problem with a lot of Republicans due to his expansion of Ohio Medicaid under Obamacare. 


And he is a man of faith who does not check his faith when he walks into the public forum.  His comments on expanding Medicaid, ""But I said, there's a book," he added. "It's got a new part and an old part. They put it together. It's a remarkable book. If you don't have one, I'll buy you one. And it talks about how we treat the poor.", do not sit well with many.


Can Kasich gather the flock of evangelicals now supporting the Canadian guy?  We shall see.  My experience is that most folks leave their faith at the door when they enter the public forum. 


khcdec
khcdec

@Bruno2 good to see voters not following hype from iowa as cruz and rubio are some of the worst candidates to come along.  cruz without some tpers and evangelicals has nothing.  rubio is a lightweight.

kasich and bush will fight for mainstream conservatives plus christies and firorinas followers and hopefully overtake cruz.   but then there is the south with their right taliban voters so who knows.

khcdec
khcdec

@Caius @Bruno2 i hope they leave faith at door, but ga dwindling middle class knows that's all they will likely get from repubs (greed is there god).  dems won't even given them religious crumbs

TGT88
TGT88

With 88% of the NH vote counted, GOP total is 258,354. With 89% of the vote counted, Democrat total is 227,543. This looks like its going to be a complete reversal of the vote totals from the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary.

Eye wonder
Eye wonder

You want a legitimate shot at the WH, Kyle? Get behind Kasich. Early and often.

khcdec
khcdec

who were the dumarses in NH that voted for rubio and cruz?

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

@khckhc I don't know why the parties let those crazy Iowans impact everything so much.  Thank heavens that NH stuck it to the media who was going to force us to have only 3 choices unpalatable to a lot of us-Trump, Cruz and Rubio.

xxxzzz
xxxzzz

@khckhc I don't know who these "establishment" idiots are that think you have to unite behind one candidate in the first 3 primaries.  There's plenty of time before Super Tuesday.  And you may not even need to do it then.  As long as you do it before March 15th when you start getting winner take all primaries.   Rubio's people are still trying to tell Kasich and Bush to get out after Rubio's 5th place finish.  Pretty pathetic.  Fox News seems to be behind Rubio as well.  They attack Christie worse than they do Obama.  Christie did the party and nation a great service by exposing Rubio's inexperienced empty suit approach to the nomination.

Starik
Starik

This is entertaining. If we do have Sanders v. Trump who will be the running mates? Ticket balancers?

Wascatlady
Wascatlady

@Starik Maybe Hillary for Sanders and Mrs. Trump (one of them) for Trump?