The first Republican in the 2016 pool makes a big splash

Jeb’s in:

(The URL for that tweet, by the way, ends with these digits: 2016. Coincidence … or fate??)

The conventional wisdom is Bush’s candidacy would discourage Sen. Marco Rubio, a fellow Floridian, from getting in the race — which in my view is a good thing, as our recent record of first-term-senators-turned-president is not exactly great. It will also put pressure on Chris Christie to jump in sooner than later — he’d compete with Bush for staff and donors — and may snuff out the “draft Romney” movement, such as it is.

My more general thoughts on a Bush candidacy from earlier this month still stand. In short: He’s going to face opposition from a lot of conservatives on education and immigration, but the GOP over the past three decades has nominated moderates much more often than conservatives, despite what you may have been told about the rabid right-wing-edness of the Republican primary electorate.

Just 693 more days of this stuff, folks …

Reader Comments 0

53 comments
notagain
notagain

It's taken 6 yrs to overcome the harmful results of the last Bush,why gamble with another.Smart and honest and Bush just just don't seem to fit.

Dusty2
Dusty2

Relax, fellows.  Having a smart, honest, experienced person in the White House again won't shock you too much.  You will get used to the dependable actions of this man..  All your politically induced hate should have been expelled on George so try to enjoy Jeb.  He will be the change so needed for exhausted, disappointed, half-broke Americans.  They will once again enjoy stability in government, something we have missed now for almost eight years.  It will be a tough recovery but we will make it with a man of integrity like Jeb Bush.


What a sigh of relief this is to hear that we have a chance at good governance once more.   

consumedconsumer
consumedconsumer

Can't we all just agree on this - No Clinton and No Bush in 2016? Please? Pretty please? With sugar on top? We've been to both wells on more than one occasion and they've come up lacking

PudHead
PudHead

Not sure we need another Bush.....yet

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Haven't we already shown that a Republican who purposefully antagonizes the base can't win the general election?

JamVet
JamVet

We tried the stupid son and all that got us was nearly 8,000 dead Americans and damn near sent back to the Great Depression. This one supposedly has an IQ over 100, but who cares. The man has the same chance of winning that the Massachusetts Jellyfish had...

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Don't get me wrong here, I do see Jeb W Bush as a vast improvement above any of the democrats and I'd probably toe the party line if that's my only option come the following November. But he's got gruberish in him and he shares it. Telling us about all these great government programs knowing full well it's a lie, so that there is no opposition to it. And nobody ever knows what we got for sure until the bill comes in the mail or the doctor won't see you. 


I'm pretty sure he's democrat curious.



HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

With Obama's executive order on Immigration a lot of the 2016 GOP Primary season is going to be about who, if elected, would be most adamant about deporting all those brown people who are taking american jobs.

straker
straker

Maybe Bush for President, Christie for Vice President.

TBS
TBS

Jeb would make a formidable candidate if he gets out of the primary.

Even if he were to lose (which may not be the case) I think he will make it a much tighter race than McCain or Romney. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The democrats will run warren because, like obama, she has no experience whatsoever and she grubers with the best of them. One analysis of this situation I read, stated that the Republicans could run a refrigerator and beat her. With this in mind, I did some research -


Above: Sub-Zero is not only the industry standard-bearer but also an American flag-waving company. Their products (including their Wolf ranges) are made in Wisconsin.


That's right, all roads lead to Scott Walker.

Juanx
Juanx

Kyle, the CIA report on torture will still be on the fore front of American news. No way will this die of before the 2016 campaign end. Anyone with the name Bush will never be nominated or elected in America.

Tiberius-Constitutionus
Tiberius-Constitutionus

Kyle,


The "rabid right-wing-edness of the [current] Republican primary electorate" is a fact.  And, in my opinion, it's a large part of the reason why Romney lost.  See, I think that deep down, Mitt is a centrist.  I also think he would probably have made a good president - if he was allowed to be himself.  But he tacked sharply right during the primaries, which sort of screwed him come general election time.

Tiberius-Constitutionus
Tiberius-Constitutionus

Although Jeb seems like a competent, moderate, non-crazy Republican, let's all hope he doesn't win the nomination.  We've been bushwhacked 2.5 times before, and it never turned out well for us.

Aligheri
Aligheri

Democrats would hate Jesus Christ if he ran as a Republican.

GMFA
GMFA

I just hope Ben Carson and Ted Cruz run, as I will have to DVR the debates. Reality TV at is best.

Jefferson1776
Jefferson1776

I bet he has a immigration plan that is popular with the GOP.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

Obama effectively ran against George Bush in 2008 by comparing McCain to Bush.


Whoever the Dem nominee is will do the same with Jeb.


The only defense will be similar to what McCain used. I'm not George Bush.


I don't think he gets the nomination anyway. 



Caius
Caius

Just 693 more days?


I love politics, especially presidential politics, but 693 days is a plateful.


As I have stated previously, I consider the last conservative to be elected president to be Hoover.  Well, maybe Reagan was conservative when elected, but it sure didn't last long.


HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

He’s going to face opposition from a lot of conservatives on education and immigration


It will be interesting watching him veer hard right on these issues to try and secure the nomination.

Trefusis
Trefusis

@JamVet  No kidding, for a minute or two I thought you were referring to Jason Carter, just because some of us last night referred to him as about the only Democrat we like and trust, going forward.  I dig now what you're saying, but may God help us.  So far as I can see Bush is doomed anyway so it really doesn't matter when he throws in his hat.  Yes, I know what "exploratory" means but the people don't want him so he can explore all he wants, and waste other people's money.  Why would we care?  He can't go far on foot, as facetiously we used to say when I worked in Politics.  Let him make an arse of himself.  It's a grand tradition.  Same with Hilary.  If you can handle the bitter hardball of this, they're both burning off the bad money, so who cares?  Neither of them will get nominated.  No kidding, JamVet, I want the Dirty Squad to nominate their best and meanwhile I'll work for the nomination of the cleanest jersey my team can muster, and it ain't gonna be Jeb Bush's.  You know that.  It's true that Florida is pivotal for the GOP but it's not the Be All and End All. The GOP has been blindsided in this way before, and must be flexible this time or else the Party truly is the artifact Democrats take it to be.  The Republicans will win by surprising everybody, or else they won't win the general.  I don't really care which one but it can't be Jeb because he's more tone deaf than he lets on.  He's out of sync with the Folk, evem though he speaks fairly good schoolboy Spanish.  But I really wouldn't know.  The last GOP Presidential candidate for whom I worked was Rudy, and just look at how he bombed.  In Florida, I might add!  Nevertheless I do share your sense that we Republicans hold a rough advantage this time, and my Democratic friends know that and fear it.  What's more, we have lot's of talent, beyond Jeb and Marco and Ted Cruz the McCarthyesque megaphone.  Lots and lots of talent beyond that.  I consider it damned cynical for the GOP to get hung up on Latinos or quasi-Latinos such as Jeb.  For one thing, the swing is just not there, demographically, even though Latinos tend to want to embrace the values Bush finds uncomfortably square; secondly, Jeb just can't swing out.  Latinos know how to dance, bigtime.  Jeb still can't dance.  Makes a big smell, know what I mean?  He's totally overblown.  The Democrats are going to suffer even worse Hillary Shock.  Then we're going to see some very interesting, old-style, Democratic brokering going right into the convention.  My guess is that they will nominate her still, but that she'll be as lame as was dear Hubert Humphrey.  I know that party.  I love that party in some ways.  But they can't help themselves.  They can see a sword coming for years and still throw themselves upon it.  I've no idea why they do this.  But then Salmon spawn upstream to die, and to make food for bears, so you just gotta love Democrats too.  Don't worry, we'll win this time.  Just not with Jeb.   

TBS
TBS

@IReportYouWhine


You would toe the party line?

Now that was a given if there ever was one. 

And on average how many candidates do you vote for which aren't Republican each election? 

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@IReportYouWhine My grandmother has a better shot than Scott " Im in the Kochs pocket " Walker


And she has been dead for years.


With the Democratic Blue wall getting them automatically to 242 EV's all they need is one swing state in any election. Obama has proven twice now that the South no longer matters in Presidential politics. 


Democrats can win easily without a single southern vote. 



HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@GMFA One can only hope.


Bachmann says she is about to start touring the country and she is going to " Take the handcuffs off "


If I were with the DNC I would be offering to pay her travel expenses. 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar "Obama effectively ran against George Bush in 2008 by comparing McCain to Bush."

And the Republican nominee will do the same with the Democrat and Obama. 

Stan_Dup
Stan_Dup

@Kyle_Wingfield @Juanx  Speaking of the CIA report on torture...unless I missed it, Kyle, you don't seem to be blogging about it. Perhaps tomorrow you could give us your thoughts on Mr. Cheney's reaction.

TBS
TBS

@Kyle_Wingfield @Tiberius-Constitutionus



What did he say that helped him? 

He was thumped pretty good in the Electoral College count.

One can slice and dice the numbers to say well he only lost by this or that much in several key states but in the end he lost.  

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@Kyle_Wingfield @PinkoNeoConLibertarian There is no such embargo.


Maybe on the name Bush but not a First Term Senator


The economy is improving rapidly and gas prices are coming down. That and Obamacare is chugging right along


Your about to see Obama's numbers go up pretty dramatically. People are going to start ( correctly ) comparing conditions now to when he took office. And when one does that he looks very good indeed.



HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@IReportYouWhine @HeadleyLamar Yup


Those states have voted for the Democrat in every Presidential election since.1996


The blue wall is a powerful phalanx of 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted for the Democrats in every single presidential election for 20 years -- six straight. Some states have been in the Democratic column even longer.


Democrats will be HEAVY favorites to win those 18 again. Which leaves them just one big swing state ( Florida )  or a couple of smaller ones ( Colorado etc ) from victory before we even get started. Southern states need not apply. They are irelevant in Presidential politics.


Good luck

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@TBS "What did he say that helped him?"

Irrelevant. Go back to the premise of this exchange, which was that Romney went so gosh-darn right-wing during the primary he couldn't make it back to the middle in the general.

As for Headley's list, the only one that remotely stuck around until the end was the "corporations are people" line. Remember, his infamous "47 percent" line -- which stuck to him much more -- was uttered and revealed after the primary.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@IReportYouWhine @HeadleyLamar


the Blue Wall


California

Hawaii

Connecticut

Delaware

D.C.

Illinois

Maine 

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

New Jersey

New York

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Vermont

Washington

Wisconsin


Total EV's 242


Now here are the state the GOP has won the last 5 cycles


Alabama

Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Mississippi

Nebraska

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Texas

Utah

Wyoming


For a total of 102 EV's


Its obvious which party has a built in easier path. Much the way the GOP had it its way in 2014 with all the races in Red States. 


For example the Dems win Florida..That is it its over.


Or Just win Ohio, Colorado, and New Mexico and you can win that way.


Trying to become the third Bush President after the disaster that was Dubya


And facing those long odds...Well all Ica n say is


Good Luck Jeb !!!!