A look at how the Georgia GOP did with female, minority voters

Demography is not destiny in politics.

That is one of the emerging messages from Tuesday’s elections, in Georgia and beyond.

Demography isn’t destiny because people need not be defined by the labels demographers use. Much has been said and written during this election about the black vote, the Hispanic vote and the female vote, in large part because those blocs have been growing and moving in the direction of Democrats. But their trajectories don’t necessarily move in a linear fashion.

The New York Times has a comparison of exit poll data from Georgia’s 2008 and 2014 Senate races. Among other things, it shows David Perdue bested the 2008 GOP candidate, Saxby Chambliss, not only among white voters (plus 4 percentage points) but among black voters as well (plus 3 points). What’s more, African-Americans made up an estimated 29 percent of the electorate, per exit polls — official data from the state is still to come — which would represent a much milder increase over the 2010 midterm elections than Democrats had hoped for after stepping up efforts to register black voters.

Far from moving toward the 30 percent mark among white voters that she needed to win, Michelle Nunn moved backward among those voters to just 23 percent. Perdue also won a solid 42 percent of the Hispanic vote — somewhat of a surprise given his “no amnesty” refrain, although there were indications Republicans could be competitive among that bloc.

The GOP did even better with Hispanics in this year’s governor’s race, according to exit poll data reported by CNN. Nathan Deal, who signed the 2011 bill that cracked down on illegal immigration in Georgia, nearly won a majority of Hispanics at 47 percent. He also fared a few points better than Perdue with African-Americans, hitting 10 percent after a late campaign push to highlight his work on charter schools and criminal justice reform. That’s far from an impressive showing, or a sufficient one going forward, but it’s well above the 5 percent figure some believed he would get. Deal also performed strongly among women (46 percent) while maintaining a large majority among men (60 percent).

Deal’s showing among Hispanic voters was even slightly better than the Republican governor-elect in Texas, where the GOP has traditionally fared pretty well with that bloc. Still, Greg Abbott won a healthy 44 percent of the Hispanic vote there — as well as a majority among women (54 percent) against a female opponent in Wendy Davis who rose to prominence for filibustering a bill to restrict abortion clinics. A Hispanic shift toward Republicans also figured into Cory Gardner’s win against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado.

Republicans have a long way to go to be truly competitive with all sorts of groups of voters that traditionally haven’t voted with them. But this year’s results show they can make gains, despite Democrats’ doom-saying.

Reader Comments 0

66 comments
RantNRave
RantNRave

"Your president is the root of all his problems. He told us in advance that forging relationships on the Hill was beneath him.  Apologizing for his inability to govern and make such work for us is stale bread.  

.

.

.

RAINDROIDWILLBOY


DO YOU REALLY WANT TO HAVE A DISCUSSION ABOUT HONESTY??? 


IF YOU ARE HONEST....PLEASE PROVIDE PROOF THAT OBAMA TOLD YOU


"that forging relationships on the Hill was beneath him. "

RantNRave
RantNRave

"Georgia remains a regressive, racist state."


"Keep believing that, and keep losing. Sorry to be so blunt. "


KYLE


HAVE YOU EVER BEEN BLACK?


BEFORE YOU CRITICIZE SOMEONE, YOU SHOULD WALK A MILE IN THEIR SHOES.



RantNRave
RantNRave

"If nothing else, he should be repentant about the way his interventions in this year's elections cost his party seats"


KYLE


WITH YOU CONS ITS BUSINESS AS USUAL "TO BLAME OBAMA."


WHEN ARE YOU CONS GOING TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHAT YOU HAVE NOT DONE?


LET'S SEE WHO YOU CONS BLAME WHEN YOU ARE EXPOSED FOR NOT


DOING YOUR JOB.


OH ITS GOING TO HAPPEN !!!

MarkVV
MarkVV

There is no excuse for those who did not bother to vote. If the election results went against their wishes, they should feel responsible for that. That, however, is a different issue from making predictions about future trends in voting patterns, which will be strongly affected by future patterns of voting participation, which are not predictable.

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

Not to pile on, but from the NYTimes website you've cited:


These include 500 to 600 interviews in each state conducted by telephone with absentee voters and early voters 


As mentioned by Hedley via Jay--If Hispanic voters were about 4% of the exit poll sample in GA, that'd be a very small sample size (22 or so) with a robust margin of error.



Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@stands_for_decibels They include those interviews but are not limited to them. Those 500-600 phone interviews are supplements for the in-person interviews conducted on Election Day.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@stands_for_decibels You'll note, there are certain demographics where they don't provide exit poll data -- Asian-Americans, for example -- because the sample is too small.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

Look at Georgia's red/blue map by counties on the front page of today's AJC.  Michelle Nunn only got 23% of the white vote in this state and only a few areas of Georgia went Democratic, including the metro Atlanta area and Savannah, as a result of the black vote.  Yes, there have been some political changes in vision in Georgia in the last 50 years, but not among the over 40, white voters.  Here is my take:


Georgia remains a regressive, racist state. That was true of Georgia 50 years ago, when I left this state because I felt its moral insensitivity and depravity and I did not wish to live in that kind of environment, and it remains so today. Shameful. Not a point of which to be rejoicing.


Conservative Republicans are good winners, but they were poor losers when President Obama won the Presidency. Their obstructionist intransigence will not be forgotten by me.  White Georgians over 40 continue to vote against their own best interests because of their commitment to the white race.  

DawgDadII
DawgDadII

@MaryElizabethSings  The reality, Mary, is that the vast majority of Georgia voters are expressing their preference to not embrace the hard-left agenda  How that has anything to do with skin color is completely lost on me.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@Kyle_Wingfield 


Bluntness does not bother me, Kyle.  Meanness of spirit is what I cannot abide and you do not have that.


Please know that I am not into "winning."  I am into stating the truth as I see it.  And, in my 72 years, what I expressed is what I still see in Georgia.  At least, there are no more lynching in Georgia, but the subtle racism still abides here.  Why do you think whites will not vote Democratic, for the most part, in Georgia?  Believe me, from my personal history, I know that it is not because of political ideology for the most part;  it is because of pure old racism, imho.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@MaryElizabethSings "Believe me, from my personal history, I know that it is not because of political ideology for the most part;  it is because of pure old racism, imho."

Is that why white Democrats did not vote for Tim Scott in South Carolina? Or Nikki Haley?

I'm not being flip; I'm suggesting maybe they voted for reasons other than race -- and that maybe, just maybe, white Republicans do the same.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@Kyle_Wingfield


I can't speak for South Carolina.  But I know Georgia and Georgians down to my bone marrow.  ;-) 


Moreover, one has to size-up the overall trend, not individual races, imo.  What happened in Georgia according to the red/blue map of Georgia counties in this election on the front page of today's AJC is sad to me because so little genuine racial change has occurred in a half-century in Georgia. Perhaps this is the end of a long history of racism in Georgia.  I certainly hope so.


Let's just agree to disagree, huh?  It may be a generational gap in the differences in our views.

TomGaff
TomGaff

@MaryElizabethSings Why did you return to GA if you think we are such a hateful racist state? Sounds like California would be a better fit for you, at least you would be happier there with the more freedoms and higher taxes you seem to like? Most Cons like me would like to see food stamps and welfare reduced or eliminated, with decent paying jobs made available for Georgia citizens! Work for what you wish to obtain in life and not expect the govt(American taxpayers) to support you from cradle to grave? Sounds reasonable to me, instead of your hateful loser rants!

MarkVV
MarkVV

@DawgDadII @MaryElizabethSings 


Denying the skin color effect in voting is a demonstration of just about the worst political blindness that can be. There may be difference of opinion and knowledge about the strength of this effect in voting, but that is different from an outright denial.


Don't Tread
Don't Tread

@MaryElizabethSings "Meanness of spirit is what I cannot abide"


Right, while saying "Georgia remains a regressive, racist state".  You might want to check the mirror for that "meanness of spirit".


When people like you play the race card every time someone disagrees with you, it's no wonder you can't get the white vote.  In fact, you give them another reason to vote against you.  (Because you somehow "know" what people are thinking better than they do.  Long distance mind reading apparently isn't your strong suit.)

RaindroidWillBoy
RaindroidWillBoy

@MaryElizabethSings


Racism as a battle cry didn't serve DEMS very well.  The unemployment rate amongst back youth is deplorable and most blacks (and most whites et al) are simply in worst economic straits that before BO and the DEMS took control. Wages are down and as far as the fed controlled stock market goes, more of those economic groups have no the money to take advantage.


IMO racism has little to do with anything despite liberal efforts and desires to do such.  GOP wins the black vote outright not by how many votes they get but by how many votes are not cast.


Since BO in office, liberals have insisted we pretent this is the 1960's and such attitudes apply today regarding women and race as then.  It's crap and not a winning formula.  Peeing on heads and telling folks its raining never works in the long ran.


I agree about passive racism.  I just you or another could show me what a racism free society looks like.


MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@Kyle_Wingfield 


White Democrats probably did not vote for Nikki Haley in South Carolina because of a difference in their political ideology and hers; however I look at the overall voting trend as more indicative of movement in the South politically and racially than individual races.  The overall red/blue county voting in Georgia is a disappointment to me.


I would like to add that, imo, a large part of the political ideology of white Southerners toward less government, especially less federal government "intrusion," has a long history - handed down from generation to generation in most Southern white families against the federal government's power, especially since the Civil War.  Racism, as I see it, is interwoven into that political history in the South. Racism is still prevalent today in the South, but it is diffused in being recognized by many Southerners because of that mixture of the "less government" political ideology with racism.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@DontTread


I stated the truth as I see it.  I did not show meanness of spirit either to you, Dont Tread, or to Moderator Kyle Wingfield.  There is a difference in stating truth as one sees it, blunt though that truth may be, and trying deliberately to hurt someone, as the bully does.  We must be able to speak truth as we see it.  Imho, you may be personalizing general opinions to too great a degree.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@RaindroidWillBoy


You wrote: "The unemployment rate amongst back youth is deplorable and most blacks (and most whites et al) are simply in worst economic straits that before BO and the DEMS took control."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


The unemployment rate has dropped from about 11% to 5.7% since President Obama took office.  Many people, including especially black people, are still in a poor economic state since President Obama has been in office ;however, I see that as having been created by Republican obstruction and intransigence to his programs, such as his jobs program and his infrastructure development programs.  Remember Republicans have declared that their purpose has been to make sure President Obama fails.

MaryElizabethSings
MaryElizabethSings

@TomGaff


The response I posted to the poster, "Don't Tread," would also apply to your comments to me.  Please read my response to "Don't Tread."

Don't Tread
Don't Tread

@MaryElizabethSings So your ability to remotely read minds of people you don't even know is a "truth as you see it"?


Here's a nugget of [real] truth:  You have absolutely no clue why a certain person voted the way they did.


Here's another nugget of truth:  Independents like me will not be bullied, shamed, coerced, cajoled, or fooled into voting for anyone or anything because you support them, regardless of the steaming piles you regularly deposit here.

Caius
Caius

Turnout, turnout, turnout.


Georgia

2014.... 2,558,710 

2012.... 3,908,369 

2010.... 2,576,037 

2008.... 3,924,486 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Caius I'm not going to spend much time worrying about the feelings of people who can't be bothered to vote simply because the one office for which their vote arguably counts the least -- the presidency -- isn't on the ballot.

That's not the same thing as saying either party should not concern itself with how to win those votes when they are cast. But the argument that Congress should behave a certain way because of the people who didn't show up is pretty specious to me.

atlbluehen
atlbluehen

@Kyle_Wingfield @Caius I will never discourage anyone from voting, but, if you choose not to vote, my vote is worth more, which is better for me.  When you don't vote, you give your right to be represented to those that chose to exercise their right.

RaindroidWillBoy
RaindroidWillBoy

@Kyle_Wingfield @Tiberius-Constitutionus


I count because I pay my taxes which gives me the right to complain Kyle.  Some of us think that a vote simply indicates support for the current system..or tacit approval.  


My complaints are primarily focused on how corrupt the system is underscored by our interests subordiated to cash.


It costs a 1 billion bucs minimum to get elected president.  What does that say about the big picture.  Until our interests are ahead of campaign cash, it matters little who is elected to take blame. Government doesn' work as long as private money rules..with the big bucks originating from the lunatic fringes.

Tiberius-Constitutionus
Tiberius-Constitutionus

@Kyle_Wingfield @Tiberius-Constitutionus

1. I show up. Every time.

2. I wasn't talking about people not showing up.  I was talking about the fact that due to games with congressional districting, a vocal minority - i.e., the Tea Party - has been wagging the Republican dog for 6 years now. Mainstream Republicans might - MIGHT - have gotten that under control a little. Time will tell. You forget all too easily that the GOP retained the House in 2012 NOT because they got more votes but because they played games with the 2010 census.

RaindroidWillBoy
RaindroidWillBoy

@DawgDadII @Tiberius-Constitutionus @Kyle_Wingfield @Caius


And what are we getting in return?  DC thinks we are a bunch of idiots, disrespecting our money and intelligence.


Nice patriotic gesture and stating what you state is all good and well but IMO not voting is a vote in and of itself.


ARe we supposed to continue voting on the best of the worst while billions are spend sole telling us "my opponent is scum"?

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Tiberius-Constitutionus "they aren't really representative of the will of the majority."

An utterly specious argument. Not showing up is your way of saying you don't care. So your will, in effect, was to follow the will of those who did show up. That's why we have the saying about forfeiting the right to complain when you don't vote.

OldPhysicsTeacher
OldPhysicsTeacher

@RaindroidWillBoy @Kyle_Wingfield @Tiberius-Constitutionus 

Simply paying taxes is not being "a citizen."  Showing up is!  I vote.  Last time (2012) I voted for the best "man" possible for president - Sam Nunn.  I would have voted for "None Of the Above" if given that option, but I wasn't.  Simply being against the invasion of a sovereign nation is not sufficient reason to be elected. This year, I voted against the (un)Read Deal and voted Democratic for governor and senate.  I felt and continue to feel that Deal represents Deal and no one else, and voted frankly for Nunn's daughter out of personal respect for her father.  I lost.  Well, when Deal lines his pockets again, I'm going to remind all the voters who voted (R) they put him back in.


Jimmyliscious
Jimmyliscious

@RantNRave Yup. Harry Reid was hiding behind those 300 pieces of legislation the Repubs put on his desk so he the libs didn't have to make a decision on anything.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@RantNRave If nothing else, he should be repentant about the way his interventions in this year's elections cost his party seats.

Don't Tread
Don't Tread

@Jimmyliscious @RantNRave His job was to give 0bama political cover by refusing to even allow debate on anything Republicans proposed.  But somehow it's the conservatives who are "obstructionist".  Sure.

RaindroidWillBoy
RaindroidWillBoy

@RantNRave


Do you really want to have the discussion about honesty?


Your president is the root of all his problems. He told us in advance that forging relationships on the Hill was beneath him.  Apologizing for his inability to govern and make such work for us is stale bread.  


Legacies aren't fond of "not my fault"...

bu2
bu2

@DontTread @Jimmyliscious @RantNRave 

There's a good article in the Washington Post about the "Midterm Disaster rips apart awkward ties between Obama and Senate Democrats."  Talks about how the Democrats for the most part didn't want to do anything.  They just wanted to gain political advantage.  Also talks about how Obama neglected relationships with Democrats, let alone Republicans.

dontstereotypemeyo
dontstereotypemeyo

Looks like the GOP is already truly competitive with Hispanics. 


Nathan Deal could have done even better with black voters with a sustained effort. If Deal makes a sustained effort now that he has been re-elected and has nothing to gain, that could help the next guy out in 2018. 


Deal has already stated that he will keep working on criminal justice reform, which is good. But he could do his best by really pushing charter schools outside of metro Atlanta. While we love to talk about the "problems" in south Fulton, south DeKalb and Clayton, the truth is that the most challenged group of black voters are in the "black belt" outside metro Atlanta. A charter school and vocational education emphasis in that region would pay political dividends. 


Another thing: there are a lot of blacks who are, if not conservative, are traditional in their views concerning things like crime, welfare, work etc. Those are the blacks who would have been deeply offended by such things as the Ferguson flyer. Might have depressed turnout and even pushed a few people into the Deal camp. Just a thought ...

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

Only Democrats assume that a large majority of legal hispanic voters want amnesty for illegal immigrants.  The 47% vote for Governor Deal who has cracked down on illegal immigration is proof of that fallacy.  Furthermore, Hispanics like so many other immigrant groups in America's melting pot are ambitious and working their way up the economic ladder of the American Dream.  The higher up, the less they vote for Democratic Party expansion of handouts.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Doesn't this put a crimp in our turning blue inevability?

MarkVV
MarkVV

There are two good reasons why we should take Kyle’s numbers with more than the proverbial grain of salt.

The numbers he cites are the results of exit polls. Is there any reason to believe the exit polls more than the polls before the election, the failure of which it is written about in today’s AJC?


Even if we believed those numbers, they would have the argued meaning only in the context of the given voters participation which, apparently, was quite low. Any interpretation with regard to the meaning and future trends would have to take into consideration the unknown future changes in that factor.

td1234
td1234

Interesting number Mr. Wingfield. 

Don't Tread
Don't Tread

Amnesty represents a reward for breaking the law.  Hispanics (or any immigrants, for that matter) who came here and became citizens legally would probably feel "cheated" if people who came here illegally were given a free pass to citizenship.


And as far as that "war on women" the GOP was supposedly waging - just because the MSM repeatedly parrots a DNC talking point doesn't make it true.  The women apparently saw through that tactic.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

The 2014 electorate was considerably older and whiter than America, and older and whiter than the 2012 electorate and likely the 2016 electorate. In 2012, 25 percent of voters were over 60, and 19 percent were under 30, a spread of six percentage points. In 2014, 37 percent were over 60, and just 12 percent were under 30, a margin of 25 percentage points. It was not a representative sample.


- Bookman


A different spin on the numbers.