Election night thread: Runoffs, or no runoffs?

UPDATE at 11:30 p.m.: With everything settled in Georgia except the final margins, here’s a rundown of the bigger surprises tonight elsewhere:

  • In Illinois, Republican Bruce Rauner has defeated Gov. Pat Quinn.
  • Scott Walker is cruising to re-election in Wisconsin, up nearly 11 points with more than half the votes counted.
  • Florida Gov. Rick Scott appears to have fended off a challenge from former governor and political chameleon Charlie Crist.
  • As of this writing, Republicans hold leads in gubernatorial races in Kansas (GOP incumbent who had trailed in the polls), Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts and even Maryland.
  • The GOP held all three of its endangered Senate seats (Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky); has already unseated three Democratic incumbents (Arkansas, Colorado and, just called by the AP, North Carolina) and is going to a runoff against a fourth (Louisiana) with a fifth (Alaska) still voting; won four open seats previously held by Democrats (Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and, just called by Fox News, Iowa); and remains within 1 point in Virginia. That puts the party in the majority with a strong chance of 53 seats, and an outside chance at 54 — up from 45 currently.
  • The last white Democratic congressman in the South, John Barrow, was finally caught by a Republican, Rick Allen, in Georgia’s 12th District.

That is a heckuva night for the GOP. Now to get on with doing something with these wins.

UPDATE at 10:45 p.m.: CNN has also called the election for Perdue, and the network just called the governor’s race for Deal as well. Barring some exceedingly strong turnout in the Democratic parts of Fulton and DeKalb, it’s possible GOP margins in the statewide races will remain as high as in 2010. That seemed unthinkable even a week ago.

As for the big picture, here’s what one of the main number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com has to say:

UPDATE at 10:35 p.m.: A big, big win for the Georgia GOP as Rick Allen knocks off Rep. John Barrow, a longtime target of state and national Republicans. It’s one more piece of evidence that the GOP is going to wrap up this election tonight, without a runoff in either of the top two races. In fact, CBS News is projecting that Perdue will win the Senate race outright. I’m a little leery of how many votes still need to be counted in metro Atlanta, but I do think the chances of a runoff are looking worse all the time.

Elsewhere, races for Senate in Colorado and Montana have been called for the GOP, leaving Republicans one seat shy of a majority. They won’t get it from New Hampshire, but North Carolina and Virginia have yet to be called. And with Kentucky and now Georgia looking to be GOP holds, it appears to be a matter now of just how large the new majority will be.

UPDATE at 9:23 p.m.: Both Nunn and Carter are running below 40 percent with a little more than a third of precincts reporting. Of course, metro Atlanta has yet to weigh in. Still, it appears neither Democrat is performing well enough in South Georgia — an area where they’d hoped to make gains in part on their famous names and in part on the issues they emphasized.

Nationally, Republicans are halfway to the net gain they need for a Senate majority, picking up (as expected) a seat in South Dakota. Meanwhile, the Democrat-held seats in North Carolina and Virginia appear to be running more favorably for Republicans than expected.

UPDATE at 8:36 p.m.: The GOP has its second Senate pick-up; Arkansas has been called for Republican Tom Cotton over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor. Republicans need a net gain of four more seats to take the Senate. Elsewhere, the GOP unsurprisingly lost a governorship in Pennsylvania, where the race has been called against incumbent Tom Corbett. I also failed to mention in my earlier post the Ohio governor’s race — not because it was considered to be in doubt, but because GOP Gov. John Kasich is said to be considering a 2016 run as well.

In Georgia, the early returns show voting down in the handful of counties that have fully reported. Democrats have lost more votes than Republicans so far in the top two races.

UPDATE at 7:33 p.m.: The GOP has its first pick-up in the Senate, though it’s not a surprise. West Virginia has been called for Republican Shelly Moore Capito to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller.

Locally, the first results are in. There’s a slight bit of drop-off from the Senate total to the gubernatorial total. Interestingly, Perdue is outpacing Nathan Deal, while Jason Carter is outpacing Nunn.

UPDATE at 7:04 p.m.: That was quick: The Associated Press, CNN and Fox News have called the Kentucky Senate race for Mitch McConnell. Also: Both South Carolina seats remain Republican (Tim Scott won to finish an unexpired term after being appointed to replace Jim DeMint).

CNN reports an exit poll shows David Perdue leading Michelle Nunn 49 percent to 48 percent. That, of course, would produce a nine-week runoff here.

I’ll be updating this post as the night goes on with information that seems significant — both for Georgia races and some of the top races out of state. With so much going on, I’m going to take the thread out of moderation; it will stay that way as long as folks stick to the topic of the elections.

Reader Comments 0

51 comments
DawgDadII
DawgDadII

In all honesty I did not think Gov. Deal could overcome snowgate.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

And now the Republican candidate for governor in Massachusetts, Charlie Baker, is the projected winner over Martha Coakley. Another pick-up.

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

I  am still shocked that the governships of both Illinois and Maryland both went red. WOW! Just WOW!


Where's Hedley at? Just the other night he said the R party was dead. Too funny!


Where are all the proggies at? Where dey at?

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

Conservative onslaught. Its all over but the shouting. 


B


O


O


M


!

Area Man
Area Man

Just a crushing defeat across the board. Thanks to everyone who walked the walk and went out and voted! We did it, and no run-off!

BuckwheatinDC
BuckwheatinDC

It's a sweep! Demotard proggies Jay, Jim Calloway and communist Bernie43 are currently on suicide watch. New bales of crying towels are on the way to soothe these looser libtards. Life is good. Obamabots are in the fetal position.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

Polls in Georgia turned out to be as useless as teats on a boar hog, even JDW's CNN exit polls.  Who predicted Deal and Perdue doing this well.


Folks at CNN will fall for just about anything, if it reinforces their agenda.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Perdue projected to win today, now the runoff is the only question.

encroachtinishia
encroachtinishia

UPDATE at 9:23 p.m.: Both Nunn and Carter are running below 40 percent with a little more than a third of precincts reporting. Of course, metro Atlanta has yet to weigh in


3.5 hours since the voting stopped and Fulton, Dekalb haven't reported.  Yet Cobb and Gwinnett have.   These are electronic voting machines that provide an instant calculation.


The corruption is obvious.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Colorado polls close an hour after Georgia's and they already more ballots turned in, 74% to 64%, thanks to fulton county. No wonder Georgia is last in educational rankings. Did they run out of fingers to count on?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

No kidding, Fulton is the land of the government and they can't even turn their ballots in in a timely fashion? One of the government's most basic functions, they can't handle it?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Cobb is at 68% reporting and Fulton is at 0%. Anybody else wondering what Fulton does with their ballots?

DontTread
DontTread

The Democrat Party and the issues it favors was summarily destroyed in my county...most of them never broke 20%.

I like my neighbors much more these days :)

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

Has CBS news called any of the western states early for the Dems? LOL!

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

"In Georgia, the early returns show voting down in the handful of counties that have fully reported. Democrats have lost more votes than Republicans so far in the top two races."

Be that as it may, if the CNN exit polls are correct both are run offs with Deal winning a few more votes than Carter and Nunn winning more than Purdue.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/governor

First take away is that 52% of all votes were women. Nunn carried 56% of them and Carter 54%.

Second is that both Carter and Nunn carried all age groups under 50

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

It might not be but if those CNN numbers are correct the math is simple...they are both runoffs. As for doomed...not in GA maybe elsewhere. Same exit polling shows CO going to Gardner. But we shall see.

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

@RafeHollister @TheRealJDW


Don't remember any of those...however I don't vouch for their accuracy thus my use of the phrase..."if the CNN exit polls are correct"

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@RafeHollister @TheRealJDW


Remember when CBS news called Florida early for Gore, driving voters in the panhandle away from the polls on their way home from work. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

CNN refuses to put VA in their key races column, hahahaha

ThulsaDoom
ThulsaDoom

@IReportYouWhineTheGreat


Ultimately I think Warner wins because of the big influx of northern VA govt workers that will change everything. But it is kinda shocking that its this close. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

McConnell is giving a lights out acceptance speech,


"People want reassurance that the government is actually on their side."



RafeHollister
RafeHollister

Bill and Hilary's efforts in KY were futile.  Love it that all those Hollywood types, that had probably never been to KY, that donated money, absolutely wasted it.