A deficit of good news about Obamacare and the budget

Remember when Obamacare was going to reduce federal deficits? Good times, good times.

Of course, those good times were predicated on plainly laughable budgeting gimmicks, but at least Democrats were able to point to an artificial deficit-reduction thanks to those gimmicks. Now, it is becoming clear even the gimmicks can’t mask the law’s negative effect on the federal fisc.

Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office issued new estimates about how Obamacare would affect labor markets. In short, the budget-crunchers found Obamacare would probably reduce hours worked by 1.5 percent to 2 percent between 2017 and 2024, leading the total compensation of American workers to fall by 1 percent during those years. What CBO didn’t do, however, was break out how this 1 percent reduction in pay would affect tax revenues.

GOP staff at the Senate Budget Committee, however, did look at the tax implications of people working less and getting paid less. And they found that, if taxable income also falls by 1 percent, tax revenues are likely to fall by $280 billion. Taken together with updated cost estimates — even though some of those cost estimates are lower — the implication for the decade starting with the just-begun 2015 budget year is that Obamacare will add $131 billion to deficits over 10 years, not subtract $180 billion.

That’s a swing of $311 billion over 10 years from the most recent CBO estimate — or, as the Weekly Standard’s Jeffrey Anderson notes, “a $255 billion swing from what we were told when Obamacare was passed” –pushing the law out of the black and into the red.

Many of us warned years ago this is how the law would turn out. Once again, it’s clear that when President Obama said he wouldn’t “sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits, either now or in the future … period,” he left open the possibility of signing a plan that added a trillion dimes to our deficits.

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207 comments
MHSmith
MHSmith

Repealed Obamacare yet?

ernestangelie
ernestangelie

At least this article specified that the calculations were performed by the partisan, GOP budget staff and not any independent body. 

Ficklefan
Ficklefan

Lots of yammering and wasted cyberspace here. Obamacare is not yet in full force and effect. You can speculate and analyze CBO numbers until the cows come home,  but until Obama stops issuing executive orders in order to keep his signature legislation and legacy from going into full force and effect (why do we have to have all of those pesky elections anyhow?), we are not really going to know how Obamacare is going to affect the economy, or the American people. 


The employer mandate is not yet in effect. Presumably, it will go into effect after the mid  terms . . . if Obama does not delay it again. But if the Pubs take control of the Senate, that tactic  will ultimately become unavailable. Especially in non-professional jobs, where the middle class and the young and dumb Obama voters live. 


How exactly will it affect employment?  Will part time jobs grow exponentially, with full time jobs becoming becoming scarce? Inquiring minds want to know, but until the law is in full effect, there jest ain't no way to know. 


And he IRS enforcement  of the law and its anticipated means and methods? The IRS, now one of the most trusted names in the Federal government.  One of the biggest reasons that Obama issued an unconstitutional executive order (which is proper in order to interpret law, but not to actually change black letter law - once the prerogative of Congress) is that the Dems did not want people (especially their young and dumb base)  getting enforcement and penalty notices from the IRS before the mid-term elections. 


And how will people react when their long time doctors and/or hospitals are no longer available to them as their employers begin to choose economic survival over good medical benefits for their employees?


Perhaps we should wait until Obama and the Dems stop issuing executive orders designed to keep his signature legislation -- his only achievement of any note (and a poor one at that),  his only  "legacy" after 6 years in office -- from  taking its full grip before we try to understand its full impact. 


Darn. If it was't for all of those pesky elections the Dems have to run in to keep their offices . . . . 

straker
straker

Rafe  "why others constantly denigrate American exceptionalism"


Maybe its because we are just so sick and tired of spending endless amounts of blood and treasure while much of the rest of the world watches and cheers on the sidelines.


And, what makes you think people "have no problem with the US being the world's doctor, hospital, medical research facility, medication source and first option for treatment"?


Many of us DO have a big problem with that.

JeffreyEav
JeffreyEav

Usually republicans like it when less taxes are paid, but as we know if it can be used against the ACA all's fair.

Also, if this is people choosing to work less, why isn't that a worthy freedom?

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@JeffreyEav "Usually republicans like it when less taxes are paid"

The idea is for people to pay less taxes on the income they earn, not to celebrate that they aren't earning as much income. It's about incentives to work and invest. That's not the case here.

"Also, if this is people choosing to work less, why isn't that a worthy freedom?"

Are they working less because they are financially independent, or because they're more government-dependent? Don't you think that's relevant here?

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

Why do some whine/complain/debate why the US tries to be the worlds policeman and interfere with other countries problems, yet, they have no problem with the US being the worlds doctor, hospital, medical research facility, medication source, and first option for treatment?


We are consistently outranked (37th I believe in medical care) in the rankings of the WHO or the Royal Order of the Beavers rankings, yet patients want to come here and be treated.  No one wants to go to Cuba.  Can't some of those other countries that outrank us, help us with this Ebola outbreak and why do we never question, why it is always America called on first..


Personally I know that we are pretty much the first, last, and only thing that stands militarily against the bad guys, and that we are most often the first responders to disease outbreaks and natural disasters throughout the world and am proud of that, I just can't understand why others constantly denigrate American exceptionalism.  



MarkVV
MarkVV

@RafeHollister 

It would be rather difficult to explain anything to someone who does not understand people who are in favor of helping other countries with health problems but disagree with military interventions.One just either understands things like that or does not.

LogicalDude
LogicalDude

@RafeHollister I can't understand why we can be first in military (and outspend the next 15 countries combined), but can't have universal healthcare. 


We spend spend spend to kill kill kill, bomb bomb bomb. 


But in the quest for "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" we can't even give ourselves the best chance at "life" by having Healthcare support and coverage? That seems quite counter-intuitive.  


Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@RafeHollister We are consistently outranked (37th I believe in medical care) in the rankings of the WHO or the Royal Order of the Beavers rankings, yet patients want to come here and be treated.


We earned that ranking...Yes we do some things exceptionally well...Cancer treatment for example...Its the day to day boring stuff where other countries smoke us. People don't come here to go bankrupt because they got sick. Yet that happens to Americans. Not so much everywhere else.


I know the were number 1 at everything and always the best crowd never likes to be told differently.

But we arent the best at everything. Healthcare clearly being one of those things. 

Trefusis
Trefusis

@LogicalDude @RafeHollister  It's due to the U.S. Constitution, which establishes federal authority in our mutual defense but forbids the central government from assuming, over the states, AUTHORITY over provisions for e.g. health and education, both of which are authorizations not enumerated, deliberately unnamed, in the nation's charter document as areas of law the President and Congress may not occupy.  So the whole thing boils down to who, which communities and organizations and which states, choose to stick by the Constitution and who feels instead that the document is musty and irrelevant.  It's obvious, I think, that Barack Obama and Eric Holder and most of the university faculties fall into the latter camp.  This is of historical moment because it's the first time since circa 1860 that this division has occurred so divisively.  So you and I have an interesting decision to make.  

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@MarkVV @RafeHollister I got it, spend our money and help them get well, so they can aim their rifle at those ISIS' tanks and armored personnel carriers.  We want them healthy when they stand on the edge of that mass grave and wait for the bullet.

RafeHollister
RafeHollister

@HeadleyLamar @RafeHollister Yep, we probably lag at nagging people to eat right, take their medications, watch their BP, but if they get sick we have the ability to make them well, not so much in other countries outside Europe.  



DownInAlbany
DownInAlbany

Headley,

Tell us the one about your mother going back to work for insurance because she was suffering from Job Lock!  I love it when you tell THAT one!

Eustis
Eustis

If the Reublicans had tried to work with the Democrats, we might not have this situation.

InTheMiddle2
InTheMiddle2

@Eustis  Sorry, This is not the fault of the GOP. This falls squarely on the shoulders of Obama, Reid, and the hippy chick.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@Eustis


C-SPAN Demands Democrats Open Secret Health Reform Talks The nonpartisan media group questions Democrats' secrecy on reform bill.By Doug Heye Jan. 5, 2010 | 10:54 a.m. EST

Republicans were excluded from the process.

It's all yours.

DownInAlbany
DownInAlbany

@Eustis Only an ignorant lib would make such an asinine statement.  The problem is, the dems own obamacare, lock, stock and barrel.  Rarely, have I seen such buyers' remorse.  The dems passed it under reconciliation in order to avoid any pub input.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@DownInAlbany @Eustis the dems own obamacare, lock, stock and barrel.


Yes they do...And rightly so..Not one republican voted for it.


It will be as popular as Social Security within a few years. 

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@DownInAlbany @Eustis Obama was right about one thing.


In ten years they wont call it Obamcare anymore...They wont want to give him any credit for it.


And we will be told how it was Republican idea all along.

"First of all, in five years it will no longer be called Obamacare, because when something is working, they’re definitely not going to — there will be a whole renaming process similar to National.  (Laughter.)  I don’t know if it will be “Reagancare,” but it will definitely be — it will be something different," Obama told the crowd.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/05/20/obama-in-five-years-it-will-no-longer-be-called-obamacare/


JeffreyEav
JeffreyEav

Agreed. One side was trying to solve a problem and the other side babbled about death panels. If I remember correctly it was because they got smacked real bad in a big election.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar "It will be as popular as Social Security within a few years. "

So, it will be as popular as a mandatory program deemed insufficient for most people. Boy, y'all sure aim high!

MichaelHannigan
MichaelHannigan

@HeadleyLamar 

"...And we will be told how it was Republican idea all along."

Hmmm.  Even Obama admitted (as did the majority of Democrats trying to defend it) admitted that it was patterned and designed very much like Taxachusetts Medical Care Law passed by )then) Governor Mitt Romney - a Republican in case you need reminding.

n8diggidy
n8diggidy

Democrats are not offended when the politicians lie to them to make a power grab under the guise of compassion.  No displays of bureaucratic ineptitude or politicians' fiscal recklessness will deter them from empowering government over the people.

Eustis
Eustis

@n8diggidy 

Do you think the Bush administration lied when it sold the Iaq war?

n8diggidy
n8diggidy

@Eustis


I think I'm getting sick to death of the Bush deflections.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The Obama administration postponed a portion of the employer mandate in the Affordable Care Act in order to avoid paying the political consequences of a market disruption in the group insurance sector. If new premium pricing proposals from insurer filings in the states of Virginia and Washington come to pass, the White House may have no way out of accountability for their health-care reform folly. 


 In Virginia, two insurers control 86 percent of the market, and both propose steep increases in 2015 premiums. Anthem, which has 113,614 of the roughly 170,000 enrollments, wants to boost prices by an average of 8.5 percent next year, while CareFirst wants a hike of 14.9 percent. All five insurers in the Virginia exchange want price hikes, with only Kaiser’s proposal falling below an 8.5 percent increase.


http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/05/15/Big-Increases-Obamacare-Premiums-and-Deductibles-Coming-November#sthash.FGGhZbSH.dpuf


The big lie^^, "bending the cost curve downward."

MichaelHannigan
MichaelHannigan

@Tealiban_Party @IReportYouWhineTheGreat 

Taliban Party - perhaps you need to temper your criticisms and hold on until we find out just how much the Federal Treasury may have to shell out  (i.e., tax dollars) to bail out the insurance companies when we finally get the bad news that their premium incomes didn't measure up to the promises of the Democrats who passed ObamaScare in backroom negotiations and shenanigans..

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Not only does it cost more -


A statement from National Nurses United on the treatment of Dallas Ebola patient said that “nurses were asked to call the Infectious Disease Department” to learn the policies on how to treat Duncan.

The statement, which was played in its entirety on CNN on Wednesday morning, also reports that Ebola training at the hospital was “optional,” “nurses have been left to train each other,” and that nurses who interacted with Duncan simply continued treating other patients.


http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/10/15/Nurses-We-Were-Told-to-Call-Authorities-for-Ebola-Protocol


It's completely ruined the best health care system in the world.

HDB0329
HDB0329

@IReportYouWhineTheGreat ...wait a minute...what about the PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY to be aware of situations that could affect hospital operations/new and incoming diseases?? If the training was OPTIONAL...it was up to the NURSE/DOCTOR to take the training to be current......


....or does that to the poor and people of color???


Can't have it both ways, y'know.....

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@IReportYouWhineTheGreat 

I'm learning from my leftist friends that it is either "paranoid" or "racist" to talk about bamster's and his bungling administration's handling of anything at all. 

Gosh, what a difficulty. 

Kim Jong Un could just have us eliminated. 

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@IReportYouWhineTheGreat It's completely ruined the best health care system in the world.


It’s fairly well accepted that the U.S. is the most expensive healthcare system in the world, but many continue to falsely assume that we pay more for healthcare because we get better health (or better health outcomes). The evidence, however, clearly doesn’t support that view.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/danmunro/2014/06/16/u-s-healthcare-ranked-dead-last-compared-to-10-other-countries/


Sweden says what ?

Visual_Cortex
Visual_Cortex

@IReportYouWhineTheGreat


 the best health care system in the world.


if you're a Saudi Prince.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

That’s a swing of $311 billion over 10 years from the most recent CBO estimate — or, as the Weekly Standard’s Jeffrey Anderson notes, “a $255 billion swing from what we were told when Obamacare was passed” –pushing the law out of the black and into the red.

------------------------

Also, let us not forget that when the law was passed, it was 10 years of revenue for six years of bennies.  With delayed implementation, this is really 10 years of revenue for five years of bennies, and with revised higher costs, this is the worst deal in modern history.