A somewhat surprising story about minority voters in Georgia

Here is something you don’t read about every day (via 11 Alive News):

“With Georgia’s Hispanic population growing, Democrats hope non-white voters will help them surprise Republicans in November.

“But the assumption that Hispanic voters will support Democrats may be flawed, according to an 11Alive News poll released last week.

“The poll showed the race for governor between Democrat Jason Carter and Republican Nathan Deal to be neck-and-neck. But the poll showed Hispanic voters backing Gov. Deal 40 to 29 percent.”

Now, a couple of caveats: The sample size for the Hispanic breakdown in this poll is quite small, just 40 voters out of the 550 surveyed overall. That reflects the overall proportion of the electorate expected to identify as Hispanic, but it’s also true that you take conclusions from sub-groups of an overall-adequate sample at your own peril. Second, the undecided vote is rather high (31 percent) and the Libertarian candidate, Andrew Hunt, got absolutely no votes from this small sample. So it may well be that this poll overstates the support for Deal.

BUT …

When we look at other recent polls in the race, it appears it isn’t that far-fetched that Deal could get a substantial portion of the Hispanic vote.

Real Clear Politics’ poll average for this race includes four other polls at the moment. I’m not a subscriber to Rasmussen Reports and can’t see the cross-tabs for that poll. Only one of the others, by Insider Advantage, breaks out a number for Hispanic voters instead of just white and black voters. Including leaners, that poll shows Deal getting 36 percent of the Hispanic vote.

The other two polls only specify support by white and black voters. But one of them, by Landmark Communications, also shows “other”: It gives Deal 18 percent of voters who aren’t white or black, with Carter getting 67 percent and 8 percent undecided.

The fifth poll, for the AJC, doesn’t even list “other,” but that number can be approximated by subtracting white and black figures from the total number. By that (not necessarily scientific) method, we get 30 percent of non-white and non-black voters for Deal, 48 percent for Carter and 18 percent undecided.

Obviously, “other” isn’t a synonym for Hispanic: There are also Asian voters and those who refuse to classify themselves, among, er, others. But taking a view of all these polls, there are a couple of points to make.

First, it simply isn’t true that Republican candidates only receive the support of white voters. If Deal (or any other Republicans seeking statewide office) really gets 30 percent or more of the Hispanic vote in this election, that will be significant — particularly after the prominent legislative battle during Deal’s first term over the bill cracking down on illegal immigrants in Georgia. It would confirm that, far from being single-issue voters, many Hispanics look at the whole picture — and that the GOP has positions on a number of other issues that resonate with them, such as religious and social issues.

Second, Republicans don’t need majorities of minority voters in order to be competitive in Georgia, even amid changing demographic trends. As Kennesaw State’s Kerwin Swint said in the 11 Alive story: “(I)f Republicans can tap into just a certain amount of Latino voters — it doesn’t have to be a majority, but a certain, solid 20-30 percent — they can be competitive in statewide elections forever.”

The same is true of black voters. If the GOP were winning even 20 percent of their votes, this year’s races wouldn’t be in doubt. That’s two to three times what opinion polls show Deal getting. But it wasn’t so long ago that 20 percent looked like an attainable level: Exit polls in 2006 showed Gov. Sonny Perdue getting 17 percent of the black vote on his way to re-election. Yes, that was pre-2008, and Barack Obama’s presidential victory has probably shifted that portion of the electorate even further into the Democratic camp for at least his time in office, if not longer. However, the Republican response has been too close to a concession of those votes rather than a redoubled effort to at least hold their ground. And in Georgia, as I’ve mentioned before, they have a good message to offer black voters about sentencing reform and charter schools, both of which disproportionately benefit African-Americans by righting long-time wrongs.

This is the way political parties are supposed to work: Building coalitions of voters by focusing on issues that have broad appeal. There’s reason to believe it’s still possible for the Georgia GOP. But it isn’t going to happen on its own.

Reader Comments 0

134 comments
Wascatlady
Wascatlady

Or it might mean that the Latinos responding are here legally, and dislike those who come illegally.  They don't all stick together, you know.

Jefferson1776
Jefferson1776

Reality is the GOP cares little for working people, other than a "human" resource.

Starik
Starik

Well...the Georgia gop is in a position of opposing immigration reform in order to make the tea partiers happy, and this alienates Spanish speaking voters.  Spanish speaking voters are mainly conservative in their daily lives, but will never vote Republican because of the immigration issue.  If the goppers lighten up on immigration they will alienate the tea party, which hates furriners, especially brown ones who talk funny.  As nature takes its course, tea partiers will die off while the Hispanics will increase because they make lots of American citizen babies.  It's a trap. 

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

Kyle, is there a time limit on responding to a post? Since the new format and regulations were put in place, my very late responses are forever left "pending". Second to last comment on this page?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Y'all need a reboot. When we type, it leaves out random letters. In a Chrome browser, the sign in pop up window never appears so you cannot sign in. It works in Internet Explorer (eck.)

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Hordes of low wage migrants, a policy in favor of the middle class or the fat cat rich?


Ad which side is obama on?

straker
straker

Yes


So, If Jimmy Carter was a bad President, that automatically means Jason Carter will be a bad Governor?

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

An inspiring story about a young man with a plan.


From G.E.D. Graduate to Aerospace Engineer


http://www.galeo.org/g-e-d-graduate-aerospace-engineer/


Against all odds and in spite of U.S. government's inaction on immigration reform.


The last five paragraphs explain how he succeeded where others fail. Take these two for example:


“I think that it will take a long time for the US to provide complete legal status and tuition benefits for undocumented students,” he said. “The current situation benefits both political parties, since they both get votes based on their support for or opposition to those students. In the meantime, young undocumented students just allow their years to go by, forced to accept low paying jobs, and thinking that college is just not for them. The situation they live in is frustrating, and I know how it feels.


However, the fundamental problem lies not in the US Government and their politics, but in the students themselves. I think some undocumented students have created a culture in which they see themselves as people who deserve support and help. And some of them blame the government for their adverse condition. It is passive thinking. They just have to forget about that!


Felicitaciones, Carlos! 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The only real big difference between white and Hispanics , is that the Hispanics don't know the democrats are lying to them.

But they're apparently learning.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

One poll matters: the one on election day that sends Jason Carter to the ignominy his grandfather deserves to being the worst post world war II President after bamster. 

We don't need a Carter in political power, nor Sasha or Melia. 

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

 When we look at other recent polls in the race, it appears it isn’t that far-fetched that Deal could get a substantial portion of the Hispanic vote.....Yes Kyle it is far fetched.  Seriously, what do Hispanic voters have in common with a Governor who keeps ICE on speed dial?  There is only one way your hypothetical can be true and that is that blacks and Hispanics lack a basic instinct found in all human beings and animals, protection of oneself from harm.  As a middle class African American it offends me Kyle to think that you think that I would promote or encourage anyone in the black community to vote for a governor who referred to black grandmothers as 'ghetto grandmothers' behind closed doors during a GOP appearance.  Not going to happen because that comment is still a talking point in the black community.   Too funny.

RantNRave
RantNRave

KYLE

THE BILL MAHER SHOW WILL AIR AGAIN TODAY AT 5:00 P.M. WITH ALEXANDRA PELOSI

FILM MAKER INTERVIEWS WITH REPUBLICAN VOTERS...... 

concernedoldtimer
concernedoldtimer

As a retired teacher, many Hispanic families I worked with have values that are very conservative.

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

Kyle

Your article list the 2006 exit polling data and you also listed the current polling data.

Do you have exit polling for 2002 and 2010?  

Would be interesting to see if there are trends that pattern current data or deviate one way or the other.  

I do think that Republicans reaching out to minorities is a good thing but must say there seems to be an element within the party that is being pulled and pushed in that direction as opposed to embracing it.  

To be fair and balanced that "pull and push" has certainly occurred within the Democrat Party as well and still does to an extent.  Just seems based on overall voting and demographic trends the Republicans have dug themselves a hole.  Politics can be fickle so what we see today may not be the same trends over the next two elections.  We will see.  

Finn-McCool
Finn-McCool

Kyle wrote: "they have a good message to offer black voters about sentencing reform ... which disproportionately benefit(s) African-Americans by righting long-time wrongs."


Correct analogy here is that those in power put into effect lopsided rules/actions (long-time wrongs) that hurt people and ruined lives. Then you tell those who were hurt (and their relatives and descendants) I’m sorry and it will never ever ever happen again so please vote for me again.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

Latinos aren't stupid. They know the dem's quick fix to immigration won't stand the test of time and is only meant to appease. The right reform is what they're looking for.

When speaking at an awards dinner put on by the Congressional Black Caucus, not once did Obama mention immigration reform or amnesty legislation.

There was a reason for that.

What was it DebbieDoRight said earlier?

When they play one group against another one?

African Americans vs Latinos. It was bound to happen sooner or later.

And just so everyone knows, I favor immigration reform. Latinos would be an asset to the GOP. They're a hard-working and proud people with strong family values. 

Likewise
Likewise

Once again Kyle you bend the truth.  Democrats have always competed against popular Republicans and have never considered the hispanic vote a lock.  Bush carried a large portion of the hispanic vote.  Cubans in South Florida have always been a majority voting block for Republicans.  For the Georgia governor's race, illegal immigration is not front page news.  However, for a national race like president, the Republicans play to their base which is heavily anti-immigration and anti-hispanic.  Bottom line is that hispanics should know better.   

Starik
Starik

@Wascatlady And they come from different places; people from Mexico and people from other South and Central American countries don't necessarily love each other.  Similarly, some people from Indian areas don't speak Spanish.  Brazilians speak Portuguese. Many of these families have a mix of legal and illegal - some family members will be citizens by birth or naturalization and some will have green cards while others do not. Many are Catholic, but large numbers are evangelicals. Some families have been here for generations, and some families were absorbed in the 19th century expansion of the US borders.


What they have in common I think is a realization that our current immigration laws are a complete mess and need to be fixed. 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@FIGMO2 Not sure which comment you're talking about, though I did just approve one.

NorthAtlanta
NorthAtlanta

@IReportYouWhine 

I use Mozilla and have to manually disable the Flash Player to navigate your AJC blogs.  You all have three to five moving ads on every blog, and it uses 30 to 50 percent of my CPU.  Really a bad design.

Jimmyliscious
Jimmyliscious

@straker So, If Jimmy Carter was a bad President, that automatically means Jason Carter will be a bad Governor?


IF???

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@FIGMO2  Not to mention that they should also learn to bargain for their wages so that they are knocking down more than ten pesos a day. Biggest harm done to our country, by far, driving the wages down like they have.

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@IReportYouWhine Despite what Kyle and you are saying it is a "single issue" vote for Hispanics. The only way Nathan Deal can sway Hispanic vote is to have special appeal,  Arnold Schwarzenegger, or be an advocate of comprehensive immigration law overhaul, George Bush.  There are only three Republican governors of late in the entire Republican party, who have won the majority of Hispanic vote in the United States and one of them is Jeb Bush who is married to a Mexican-American.  

“A Hispanic small-business owner won’t listen to what you have to say on those issues if he thinks you believe he and his family are something less than human,” ~~~ Dan Schnur 

How can you tell someone you care about them but at the same time your entire party and it's constituents are on social media and blogs saying deplorable things about people of my race.  Really?

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

@IReportYouWhine 

You can cite evidence of your assertion correct?

General voting patterns in no way is evidence of your claim.  Might be your opinion but is not quantifiable and verifiable evidence.

Thanks in advance for providing the substantiation.  

consumedconsumer
consumedconsumer

@Yes_Jesus_Can worst post world war ii president after bamster . . . well, i guess that still puts ol' jimmy and obama ahead of bush 1, bush 2 and st. ronnie. ;)

td1234
td1234

@StraightNoChaser It is incomprehensible to me how any black person could vote for a Democrat. The Democrats, led by LBJ and the great society, has ruined the black family and seriously hurt the black church. Prior to the great society the black family and the black church were the two great institutions in not only in the black community but in the entire community.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@StraightNoChaser I think you skipped over the "when we look at other recent polls in the race" part. The whole point was that the poll numbers go against conventional wisdom.

Tiberius-Constitutionus
Tiberius-Constitutionus

@concernedoldtimer Bingo.  The Hispanic vote is there for the taking.  Will the GOP figure this out, or will they again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  My money's on the latter.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Nobody_Knows I haven't been able to find exit polling data for either of those years. I agree it would be helpful.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Finn-McCool Remind us, who instituted the harsh sentences in Georgia for non-violent drug crimes? 

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@FIGMO2  -- "When speaking at an awards dinner put on by the Congressional Black Caucus, not once did Obama mention immigration reform or amnesty legislation."


Of what benefit would mentioning Immigration Reform or Amnesty to the CBC do?  What purpose? It would be akin to  mentioning birth control to menopausal women.

Yes_Jesus_Can
Yes_Jesus_Can

@Likewise 

For the Georgia governor's race, illegal immigration is not front page news. 

-------------------------------------

Uh huh.  So meanwhile, "the phone," "the pen," and 50million bamster bots who can't possibly be wrong about anything were threatening to make it front page news two months ago (lest we forget) and probably will after the election. 

Since this is the bamster solution to democrats electoral success, after this election, it definitely WON'T be front page news now.  Don't want to hurt Ms. Nunn's chances now, do we?  Nice idea Jason Carter had to avoid it. 

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@Likewise http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/24/after-decades-of-gop-support-cubans-shifting-toward-the-democratic-party/


The Cuban vote isnt a slam dunk for Republicans like it once was.


Cubans in the U.S. have long identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party, even as Hispanics overall have tilted Democrat. But the party affiliation of Cubans has undergone a shift over the past decade, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.

Less than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago



IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@StraightNoChaser 

First of all, what "horrible things" have you heard? Defending the integrity of our system of citizenship? Objection to paying for another round of freebies?


And as far as the hispanics being a sole legalization issue voter, that's not even close to the truth. The ones that are illegal and ineligible to vote, now that you are correct about. The ones who jumped all the hurdles and met all the requirements and became legal citizens, they are just as protective of the sovereignty of their country as the "GOP is."

AvailableName
AvailableName

@Kyle_Wingfield @Finn-McCool The right wing, for want of a better word, conservatives formally known as Democrats and now known as Republicans.  Labels can get you in trouble, always look beyond them.

Nobody_Knows
Nobody_Knows

@Kyle_Wingfield @Finn-McCool 

I'm guess the mostly conservative Democrats who ran the state for years. Several of them are still in politics but over the last 10 or so have switched parties.

And I think the party they switched to could implement changes if they wanted to based on the current numbers in the legislature and who is in the governor's mansion.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

@DebbieDoRight Well, since he was talking about the lack of jobs in the black community, he neglected to mention Latinos and immigration reform for a reason. Why?

Unemployment among African Americans? 11.4%

Unemployment among Latinos? 7.5%

Jimmyliscious
Jimmyliscious

@HeadleyLamar @Likewise Why don't you talk to a hispanic that has started their own business and has to compete with illegals. You will find that the ones that came through the process legally, want the illegals the eff out of here because they can't compete like Americans can't compete.

MHSmith
MHSmith

@HeadleyLamar @Likewise 

Yeah, they haven't forgot that Obama has already deported more illegal aliens than Bush did in his 8 years. :)

StraightNoChaser
StraightNoChaser

@IReportYouWhine The legal voters still have family members who are not legal so wait for them to throw their kinship under the bus and vote for a Republican.  Warning do not hold your breath it can be deadly.  You and Kyle are using polling data from what 40 voters sampled, in some cases there is an uncertainty of how many are Hispanic, to make an argument for a huge population that premise is ludicrous and a pipe dream.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Nobody_Knows "And I think the party they switched to could implement changes if they wanted to based on the current numbers in the legislature and who is in the governor's mansion. "

Considering they did implement changes over the past few years, I'd say you are right.

consumedconsumer
consumedconsumer

@Kyle_Wingfield @Nobody_Knows the times are changing. 3 strikes laws were largely promoted by conservatives - of both parties - and adopted by everyone else because they didn't want to be seen as being soft on crime.