Pop quiz: Unemployment rate edition

1. State A has the highest unemployment (UE) rate in the country but had the fourth-fastest job growth last month. State B has the eighth-lowest UE rate in the country but lost jobs last month at a faster clip than any other state.

Which would you rather be?

2. State C has an UE rate that is statistically significantly lower than the national average and has reduced its UE rate more than any other state during the past two months; however, it has added jobs during those months at a rate of only 0.03 percent.

State D has a UE rate that is statistically significantly higher than the national average, and over the past two months it had a larger uptick in its UE rate than all but three other states; however, its job growth rate during the past two months was second-best in the nation at 0.86 percent.

Which would you rather be?

3. All but six states have reduced their UE rates faster than State E over the past year; only three states have been better by that measure than State F. However, employment in State E has grown at a rate that’s seven times faster than that of State F.

Which would you rather be?

4. While State G is almost 30 percent bigger than State H, over the past year it has added only about half as many jobs as State H. However, State G does have a UE rate that is more than 2 percentage points lower than that of State H.

Which would you rather be?

***

Did you go with the state with the highest unemployment rate each time? If not, why not? Is it because you want to consider a bigger picture than one data point can paint?

If so, we agree.

***

ANSWER KEY:

State A = Georgia

State B = New Hampshire

State C = Colorado

State D = Georgia

State E = Georgia

State F = Ohio

State G = Pennsylvania

State H = Georgia

Reader Comments 0

143 comments
Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

Re-upping this for some (not all) of the people wondering why their comments haven't been approved:

"In the same vein as staying away from using "idiots" and "morons," we're not going to tell people their brain isn't working or has been shelved. The goal is for the dialogue to be spirited, but civil."

Mandingo
Mandingo

Georgia is a victim of its low morals and misguided value systems  ( see Kyle's article ) . Governor Dirty Deal will have Georgia at a 10 % unemployment rate during the first year of his second term ( opinion). We all are entitled to our own opinions but not our own facts....... Georgia has the highest  unemployment rate in the nation ( fact ).  Georgia has been withering under 12 years of GOP governance ( fact). You reap what you sow.

FIGMO2
FIGMO2

If Kyle were to apply Obama's "saved or created" to Deal's jobs numbers, our liberals would be positively stimulated.

schnirt  

gotalife
gotalife

Pathetic as usual Kyle.


Worst in the country.


Vote for Carter to keep your jobs.


Not complicated.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The (Census Bureau) report also said it couldn’t prove that economic data were being falsified in a widespread manner. But it also said it couldn’t disprove it because the Commerce Department, which oversees Census, obstructed its investigation.


Also not mentioned was the fact that more than 120 laptops were suddenly missing from the Philadelphia Census office right before the last presidential election. How do we know? The Post went through the trouble of getting e-mails from supervisors in that office.


http://nypost.com/2014/09/19/representatives-are-blind-to-the-census-bureau-case/


Where there's smoke.....

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@IReportYouWhine Even the House Oversight Committee, chaired by the highly partisan Darrell Issa, was grudgingly forced to conclude after its own investigation that there was no evidence whatsoever that the national jobless rate had been manipulated prior to the election. The whole claim is a fantasy, but a fantasy that some continue to defend no matter what.


http://jaybookman.blog.ajc.com/2014/09/22/cmon-even-darrell-issa-admits-jobless-numbers-werent-manipulated/


You know when a partisan hack like Issa is forced to admit the numbers weren't fudged there is nothing to it.


And again the NY Post is a terrible reference to cite. They are just a tick above the National Enquirer. 


14 percent of Americans think Bigfoot exists and another 7 percent thing the moon landing was faked


Some people are just prone to believing crazy conspiracy theories.


But it certainly doesn't make them true. 


If Kyle were saying he believed the unemployment numbers fudged I would take pause. 


But he doesn't ( He just spins them LOL )



IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@HeadleyLamar @IReportYouWhine


Some people are just prone to believing crazy conspiracy theories.


You mean like the Census Bureau?


And, isn't it amazing how the integrity just comes and goes with Issa, one day he's a kook, the next day he's Thurgood Marshall.


Talk about.....crazy.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@HeadleyLamar We've got our nation's Finest saying that there was a stand down order at Benghazi and Issa sits there like an Egyptian sphinx. Same with beohner. We couldn't get nothing out of these two the day after their last winning election, I wouldn't count on anyone stirring the pot with it being so close to the next power grab.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

In the same vein as staying away from using "idiots" and "morons," we're not going to tell people their brain isn't working or has been shelved. The goal is for the dialogue to be spirited, but civil.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

In 2002, 12.1 percent of Georgians lived in poverty. By 2012, that number had risen to 18.1 percent, a jump of 50 percent. Some of that must be attributed to the Great Recession, which has hit not just the nation but the entire globe. But compare our performance to that of the rest of the country: In 2002, Georgia had the nation’s 20th highest poverty rate. Today we have the 7th highest poverty rate. There is no way that can be defined as success or even as holding our own.


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/jay-bookman/2014/jan/09/if-ga-test-case-conservatism-it-fails/


More inconvenient Data Points.


But hey we are number 1 for business. It just hasn't trickled down yet.


Deal and Site Selection magazine say so !!!!

InTheMiddle2
InTheMiddle2

@HeadleyLamar  That something has happened does not indicate why something has happened. To try to pin this result on a specific individual does little to serve the conversation or help further the discussion towards a solution.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

@InTheMiddle2 @HeadleyLamar Not a specific individual


But more a specific political party or ideology that has been in place since 2002. 


Since then the poverty rate is up 50 percent and we are currently last in the nation in unemployment. Inconvenient facts I know.


Obviously you don't see a correlation between the two and are willing to blame other factors. 


Pointing out how far this state has fallen DOES further a solution


Make political changes. That is the solution and the sooner the better.

InTheMiddle2
InTheMiddle2

@HeadleyLamar  Ok, say, for the sake of argument, that I accept your premise that the increase in poverty is because of a political party. What specific actions did they take that caused the poverty rate to go up.


BTW, A correlation does not indicate a cause and effect. You need more data to prove the hypothesis.

dcdcdc
dcdcdc

Logic and reason....Kyle, that'll never work with the folks who post here.  They condescendingly look down their noses at those who "check their brain at the door", and then they check their brain at the door.  Hypocrisy at its finest.


If I was deal and perdue, I'd run a huge set of ads highlighting this obviously political lie being promoted by the Obama Labor Dept.  It would reinforce to those who care about the country what a banana republic we are coming - and motivate them to come out and vote to stop these bunch of power hungry narcissists.

TBS
TBS

@dcdcdc 

Can you show the exact lie via manipulation of numbers?

Thanks in advance or substantiating the "lies" of which you speak. 

Eustis
Eustis

@dcdcdc Most people would laugh and say that the "Birther" crowd has switched topics. 

Finn-McCool
Finn-McCool

@dcdcdc

" political lie being promoted by the Obama Labor Dept."


LOL.


Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs?

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@dcdcdc  -- " Obama Labor Dept"


You know those numbers come from GEORGIA don't you?  I mean the Labor Commissioner for the state is a republican isn't he?  So you're saying he's In league with Obama and all those proletariat snobs trying to take down Georgia?


Who knew?!? (eyes:rolling)   

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

Put another way, over the last 15 years -- 1998 to 2013 -- Georgia is one of only two states in which real per capita GDP has declined. The other is Nevada. For comparison's sake, national GDP per capita rose by 16.7 percent in that time frame.


If we compare ourselves to the rest of the country, the trend is even worse. When we began the century, GDP per Georgian was $903 above the national average. Last year, GDP per Georgian had fallen $6,621 below the national average.


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/jay-bookman/2014/jun/20/georgias-economy-cannot-and-does-not-compete/


Other data points don't help Deals case.


How much more Republican leadership can Georgia survive ?


Good news is this continues they wont need extras to film The Walking Dead. Those will just be regular Georgians. 

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@HeadleyLamar  -- "Good news is this continues they wont need extras to film The Walking Dead. Those will just be regular Georgians. "


LOL!

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar Yes, and as I've pointed out before, we were falling vis-a-vis the national average in the late '80s and early '90s, too (i.e. as far back as the data are available). The one blip was when the pre-Olympics build-up was going on. Do you think we can re-create that kind of economic activity on an ongoing basis?

If the model is broken, it's been broken for a long time.

InTheMiddle2
InTheMiddle2

@HeadleyLamar  Let me help you a bit. The GDP will vary depending on what is being produced, not just THAT production is occurring. Compare the GDP of San Mateo California to Bakersfield California and you might find it just a wee bit different. Taking singular data points out of context and trying to use that to determine a result is not going to provide and realistic or accurate conclusions.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@TheRealJDW I'm looking at percentage of U.S. per-capita GDP. Maybe the rankings were slightly different because other states were getting worse than average even faster, but in 1987 (first year of state-level data set) we were at 97.7% of national...

1988: 96.2%

1989: 95.5%

1990: 95.3%

1991: 95.9%

So it was late '80s and 1990, not really "early '90s." My mistake from going off memory.

It went up from 1991 to 1996, when it peaked at 101.9%. Then it fell to 100.7% in 1997. Then the data sets change (both from BEA, but they changed their methodology).

In the new data set, it went up in 1998 and 1999, when it hit 103.4%. Then...

2000: 102.0%

2001: 101.4%

2002: 99.5%

That of course is the year Roy Barnes lost to Sonny Perdue. So no, not all the gains have been "lost since 2002." In fact, in 2002 we were almost back to where we were, relative to the national average, 15 years earlier.

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

If only the racist white Democrats, had only nominated Thurbert Baker in 2010 instead of King Roy, we would be RE-ELECTING GOVERNOR BAKER.

So in 2014, what do the racist white Democrats do?

They block any minority candidate from running and HAND the nomination to the priviledged rich white boy Carter

shame on you

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

@Kyle_Wingfield @HeadleyLamar @UncleSamantha 

So pointing out that THE MOST respected public servant Georgia has ever had.

One that is a Minority Democrat who was elected 2 times by Republicans to a statewide office.

Was discriminated against by his own party the Democrats

Is offensive???

lol

I think the we all know that his treatment by the racists in his own party is the more offensive act

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

@Kyle_Wingfield @UncleSamantha 

So when someone points out a specific subset of a group, that is a blanket statement?

It is a fact that there is a racist element in the Democratic Party. (read the history books)(ask minorites about living or visiting the liberal bastion of Boston)

Many Democrats were supportive of Baker but he was subjecting to the POWER PLAY of the top of the party who USED the racist white element of the party to put in their PUPPET ROY.

Just because an individual is DOESN'T like to admit that their own party has faults is a grounds to BLOCK

then the AJC must shut it all down

lol

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@UncleSamantha  -- "One that is a Minority Democrat who was elected 2 times by Republicans to a statewide office.


By republicans?!?  Really? Or by EVERYONE?  Where do you come up with this stuff?

"Was discriminated against by his own party the Democrats

Is offensive???"


He wasn't "discriminated against" he didn't WIN the DEM election/nomination. Nothing nefarious, just facts,(I know it's hard to hear and/or understand, but facts are ......you know facts!). Heck I'm BLACK and I didn't vote for him either!  I thought, silly me, that Karen Handle had a better chance of winning and cast my lot with her.  And when she didn't make it, I didn't bother to show up for the general election.  Will NOT make the same mistake this time around.


who knew that the good godly republicans of Georgia preferred a crooked man to a sensible, (at that time), woman?!?


Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar It was never my intention to take comments out of moderation for good. It was only for that one thread. I think we did well enough to try it again this Friday.

TBS
TBS

@UncleSamantha 

You can prove discrimination?

Not voting for a minority doesn't prove discrimination.

If you think that is the case then there must be a lot of discrimination by Republicans when looking at the race of elected officials across the country: local, state and national levels.

I say this based on your logic.  

Thanks in advance for posting the information regarding discrimination of Baker.

Save the moving goal posts, hyperbole, innuendo and lies if possible.


The hard evidence will suffice.

Hedley_Lammar
Hedley_Lammar

A lot of spin going on here.


Spin it all you want.....Georgia is an economic downward spiral and has been for some time.


When you are looking up at Mississippi things need to change


Hey I wonder if in Mississippi they say


Thank god for Georgia !!!



Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar Actually, I think the spin is being done by those who say, "Ignore all those other data points...just focus on the one!"

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@Kyle_Wingfield  -- Don't have to look at "data points" Kyle, why not just look at all the people down at the UI offices?  Or at those Job Fairs going on around the state. 


Or how about looking at those long lines of tens of thousands of people vying for a company that is only hiring 2K workers...............STATEWIDE. 


Now, if we did the math with that figure, and add in the fact that Georgia ha 159 counties, (we'll pretend all the counties have at least 3 stores), let's see.......we'll add the 2 and carry the 3 and then divide it by 159 counties and then do you know what we'll get?


LOTS of people still unemployed.  Math never lies..............Just saying.......

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@DebbieDoRight Yes, and if you look at the UI claims data, you see they continue to fall. As does the number of long-term unemployed. Not saying they couldn't fall faster, but neither of those stats shows that we have started moving in the opposite direction.

straker
straker

Kyle, I would not vote against Deal only because of Georgia's jobless rate.


Deal's overall record on jobs, healthcare and education all come into question.

DebbieDoRight
DebbieDoRight

@straker " Deal's overall record on jobs, healthcare and education all come into question.":


They don't call him "Shady Deal" for nothing.  If our whole economy in Georgia winds up in the toilet and we can't climb out of this recession; thank Gov. Deal.  He made Georgia #1 for Business don't ya know.......

straker
straker

Kyle - you must have sat up all night coming up with these convoluted questions.


I'd say its rather clear that you are supporting Deal and are afraid Carter will use Georgia's dismal unemployment rate against him.


As for, "does that mean anyone who thinks the rate is correct is supporting Carter", I don't know what you mean by that.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@straker Well, you think my questioning whether the jobless rate tells the full picture automatically means I am trying to prop up Deal. I'm just putting the shoe on the other foot.

InTheMiddle2
InTheMiddle2

@straker  Yah, like the single date point that Jay puts out is so "even handed" and above board. NOT

UncleSamantha
UncleSamantha

FYI

The Federal Reserve, in order to protect the 1%, changed the calculation of INFLATION, to make it seem very low.

This was to make sure the public doesn't start to demand THE FED to open up the books.

IF YOU TAKE THE INFLATION MEASURE USED DURING THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION and apply it to todays economy, it would be 9.5%

Accounting and statistical TRICKERY from Washington, DC