GOP’s position looks solid nationally. How about in Georgia?

I mentioned this briefly in a post the other day about the AJC’s poll of the top statewide races in Georgia this year, but one reason Republicans might breathe a little easier between now and November is if it appears the party is poised to win big nationally. And there is evidence that will be the case.

The Washington Post’s Scott Clement parses recent national polling data from four sources measuring “generic ballot” support for Democrats vs. Republicans in congressional races and finds:

“All four polls show Republicans performing better among likely voters than among registered ones. The shift in the Democratic-Republican margin from registered to likely voters within each poll gives a sense of Republicans’ current turnout advantage. Each poll shows Republicans do better among likely voters, with the swing in congressional support ranging from a three-points in the Fox News poll (Democrats -4 to -7) to an eight-point swing in the Pew Research Center survey (Dems +5 to -3). The Washington Post-ABC News and CNN-ORC polls fall in the middle of that spectrum.

“The average likely voter swing toward Republicans is 5.5 percentage points across the four polls, slightly smaller than Republicans’ advantage in 2010 (a 6.3-point swing toward Republicans) but clearly larger than in other recent midterms like 2006 (a 1-point swing) or 2002 (a 2.5-point swing).”

The historical comparisons are where this gets interesting. As we all know, 2010 was a big year for Republicans; 2006 was a big year for Democrats. For the GOP’s showing on this metric to be much closer to 2010 than to 2006 is a good sign for Republican candidates.

Now, you would be correct right about here to wonder to yourself whether the “likely voter” screen is really all that effective. That’s the part of polling that is as much art as science, and a lot of pollsters’ likely-voter numbers leading up to the 2012 election ended up looking bad.

Clement includes a direct comparison between 2010 and 2014 results from two pollsters attempting to determine who’s likely to vote and to which party they lean. I think it’s instructive.

He finds the GOP has an 8-point lead among those who told the WaPo-ABC pollster they’re “certain to vote” to vote this year, compared to a 13-point lead among the same group in the same poll four years ago. Pew, however, found an almost identical edge for the GOP among those who said they’d “definitely vote”: 12 points this year vs. 14 points in 2010.

Of course, some people who aren’t “certain” voters now will end up casting ballots in this election. How many such people vote will be key. But these questions did a pretty good job of indicating how things would go in 2010, so it’s reasonable to expect them to perform similarly this year.

***

The $64,000 question, then, is whether all this will mean anything in Georgia specifically.

In Republicans’ favor: If it appears the GOP will win a majority in the Senate, voters who lean its way may be more fired-up to show up and cast their ballots for David Perdue. And that could have a positive knock-on effect in the governor’s race and on down the ballot.

Democrats, meanwhile, can hope such a result doesn’t look so clear-cut, or that a win by Michelle Nunn would preserve their Senate majority. Or they can hope that split-ticket voting, plus local electoral dynamics that don’t factor into the national picture, means any national “wave” effect for the GOP doesn’t affect the race between Gov. Nathan Deal and challenger Jason Carter.

Me? If this continues to shape up as a big year outside Georgia for Republicans, I have a hard time believing this still-mostly-red state won’t be part of that. And as of today, it still looks like it’s going to be a good year nationally for the GOP.

Reader Comments 0

49 comments
HDB0329
HDB0329

....interesting in that the Senate race in Kansas may shift against the GOP.....and if that happens, the possibility lessens that the GOP will take over the Senate! If the Kansas Supreme Court rules that the Democratic candidate can remove himself from the ballot, Pat Roberts appears to be in position to LOSE his Senate seat......

BuzzG
BuzzG

Let's just hope the GOP does not do something stupid like granting amnesty to those who have no respect for our borders.  If they do, they will get swept out again in 2016.

somewhat_nifty
somewhat_nifty

That should read "inevitable" and "assertion". I hate typing on a tablet.

somewhat_nifty
somewhat_nifty

The midterm elections are for the most part inconsequential to the nation as a whole. Some states may suffer negative consequences  depending on who wins their local races, but that's about it. Best case scenario for repubs is a last hurrah before they are overwhelmed in 2016 by on going demographic changes  and the blowback from the inevtable spectacular failures their brief electoral success  will produce.


I also predict that should the repubs take the Senate in 2014, they will repeatedly and vociferously claim that they have a "mandate"  to foist all kinds of kooky extreme right wing laws  on the American people, with absolutely no evidence to support their asserion other than their say so.




DontTread
DontTread

@somewhat_nifty Right...like the "mandates" that the Democrats pushed on the American people during 2009-2011, with abslutely no evidence to support their assertions other than their own arrogant I-know-whats-better-for-you-more-than-you-do attitude.

Dusty2
Dusty2

Kyle,


I posted comments twice this after noon. When I left they were pending..  When I came back they were gone and a  new commentary was up.  My comments were on Ebola and the president's efforts.  What happened to them?

I just signed in again for the second  time this afternoon. .  .   

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@Dusty2 As I said when I introduced the new commenting policy, I'm going to try to keep everyone on topic. Ebola and abortion are both medically relevant, I guess, but they're not really relevant to one another.


I'll probably have something to say about the Ebola thing soon.

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

Well given the Republican polling "success" of 2012 I think I will stick with Nate who says....


"When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a “tossup.” A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close."


I know math is tough for some of you but that means the chances of a Repug Senate are getting smaller every day. 

blah blah blah
blah blah blah

@TheRealJDW Repugs worry???  - 48 days until mid-term election, that's plenty of time for Obama to screw up AGAIN.  


Interesting how the media is staying away from from all the Obama scandals..

Jimmyliscious
Jimmyliscious

I'd rather hoped to see a couple more Democratic leaders come out nationally, but that does not seem to have happened. 


Come out on what? Their only message is executive amnesty and war on women. But that's probably enough to get the base riled up.

Jimmyliscious
Jimmyliscious

I don't know. With all the attack pieces the AJC runs on the conservatives the metro Atlanta middle ground may be fertile for the chameleon dems. 

dreluv
dreluv

Georgia Republican got this state in a bunch of mess.

Nathan Deal doing nothing with the unemployment rate, education, Medicaid,

closing of rural hospital.

Georgia need new leadership not the same good ole boy's

lvg
lvg

Kyle and his GOP buds are of course  backingDeal  who just got 3.2 million dollats from a buyout by  Copart, and Copart owes the state 74 million dollars in back taxes.

But hey Deal came in  nearly bankrupt and will leave office  with a nice pile of change by not enforcing state tax liens so he can get his. Of course government had nothing to do with his new found wealth. He earned it the old fashioned way like all Republicans.


 Of course the no bid contracts for salvage vehicle inspections Deal got while in Congress using Congressional aides to strong arm state officials just shows what a sharp business mind Deak has.Kinda like Paul Ryans trust fund created from family business which made tens of millions on government highway and construction contracts. Or Romney making 3000% on Delphi stock after getting government bailout money. Love that rugged individualism and success.Love those blind trusts.Funny how Deal participated in the 3,2 million dollar closing with his eyes shut .


 I guess thanks to Deal the state really does not need that 74 million dollars anyway.

Jefferson1776
Jefferson1776

We saw what happened last time the GOP ran the gov't ---- right into the ditch....

straker
straker

"the party is poised to win big nationally"


And, when Republicans control both the Senate and the House, they will continue to do nothing and blame Obama for their failures.


Count on it.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Notice how the democrats are always whining that we're too big and use too many resources, while they import 20,000,000 more people? Strange, isn't it?  

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@IReportYouWhine No one can make sense of your comments anymore


At least I cant. 


Are you saying the Democrat s brought 20,000,000 people presumably from " strange foreign lands " to vote for them illegally ?




TBS
TBS

@IReportYouWhine 

Do you ever post facts or just like to live in a Fantasy Island type bubble?

Republicans have held the WH for 20 years dating back Reagan, the Senate for 18 years and the House for 16 years.  

Guess it is just a Democrat issue when you live in that Fantasy Island talk radio talking point bubble.  


So yes, strange indeed. 

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@FIGMO2 I have no idea what that message means, but I will check with IT.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@FIGMO2 IT says they've never heard of that before. Can you describe what it looks like? Maybe even get a screen grab of it?

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

The democrats don't have enough illegals to push them over the top. Maybe in 2016 they'll have enough people from strange foreign lands to regain their lost power but I doubt it. 


Many more Americans will hate them by then.

TBS
TBS

@IReportYouWhine 

And for your next trick you will substantiate with fact, not an Op Ed, when illegals voting pushed Democrats "over the top" as you say.

Thought so.  All talking points and sloganeering that you bought into.  

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

@HeadleyLamar @IReportYouWhine See how it doesn't bother the democrats in the least bit that our border has been thrown open and all sorts of people that haven't earned a citizenship at all have a say in what government we have?

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@IReportYouWhine And they wonder why they don't do well with minorities 


LOL


Heaven forbid....Americans from "strange foreign lands " voting !!!!

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

  • Highly competitive purple states (Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina). These are the five competitive Senate races — all seats are currently held by Democrats — in states generally considered presidential swing states. It’s here where Democrats have gained ground. There have been numerous recent polls in North Carolina, including two released on Monday, showing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan ahead. Her odds of holding her seat have improved to 68 percent from 46 percent when the model launched. Colorado has followed a similar path, with Democratic Sen. Mark Udall’s chances of keeping his seat improving to 69 percent from 47 percent. Democrats have also made smaller gains in Iowa and Michigan. New Hampshire has been an exception. The model isn’t buying that the race is tied, as a CNN poll implied Monday, but it does have Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s chances falling from 81 percent to 75 percent.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-draw-almost-even-is-it-the-money/


Bumper15
Bumper15

From all indications the D's are motivated and are aggressively getting their folks registered, etc.

If the GOP responds with less energy, they sit at home and just assume this is red Georgia so of course we'll win, the outcome will be similar to the last presidential election.

AnsweredTHIS
AnsweredTHIS

Propaganda....believe it when you see it. 

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

He started out giving them a 64% chance of taking the Senate and now has them at 56%.


Like I said basically a toss up.


Obamacare isn't nearly the issue the GOP had hoped ( Its working ) 


Let them trust the pundits.


Ill trust Nate Silver. He has a pretty good track record.


Some states like North Carolina which seemed in play look pretty safe for the Dems now. 



Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@HeadleyLamar Neither NC nor any of about a dozen states where Senate control will be decided is "pretty safe." That includes GA imo.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@Kyle_Wingfield @HeadleyLamar Agreed. But states like NC now appear "safer"


Either way it appears the needle is moving a bit back in the Dems direction.


If the GOP fails to take the Senate after all the chest thumping that they would it would be a pretty bad PR deal for them.


I personally would love to see another Rovian type meltdown on Fox News.

TBS
TBS

Appears Republicans will take the Senate. 


But Nate Silver (I'm sure the Republicans and conservatives on the blog are now familiar with him since his 2012 predictions that annihilated most if not all major pollsters and prognosticators) has the Republican chances trending down.  He started out giving them a 64% chance of taking the Senate and now has them at 56%.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/


We will see but the money is and probably should be on the Republicans taking the Senate. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

It just confirms that people have grown tired of  Big Government.


Tax us less, already. (Tula Party.)

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@HeadleyLamar - Not worth much.  Only an average of far out polling and SWAGs on likely voters/turnout.  Pundits look at a lot more data, and I for one trust them a lot more.

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@HeadleyLamar @The_Centrist - I agree with this last post of yours, but at least there will not be any more liberal media massive coverage on the Democratic Senate initiatives while continuing to ignore the House for the next two years.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@The_Centrist @HeadleyLamar Either way it doesn't matter much. 


Obama will still have veto power and as I already mentioned the Democrats will almost certainly take the Senate back in 2016.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

2014 will be a good year for the Republicans.


Democrats with far too many seats to defend many in Red States


Fortunately that script flips completely in 2016 and that is a Presidential election year as well.


My money is on a split in Georgia. Perdue wins but i think Carter pulls the upset.


Deal has so many ethics issues I think even some Republicans will have a hard time voting for him.



LogicalDude
LogicalDude

"And as of today, it still looks like it’s going to be a good year nationally for the GOP."


I think Georgia is still too close to call, but it is fun to watch people run around reacting to polls. :) 


I'll agree that Nationally, the trends are toward the GOP.  Democrats are fairly leaderless nationally, while the Republicans at least have a couple strong leaders (Paul Ryan as one example), , and a couple strong but too far right - wing leaders who will pull them back in a couple areas. (Rand Paul as one example)


I'd rather hoped to see a couple more Democratic leaders come out nationally, but that does not seem to have happened.