About that AJC poll of races for Georgia governor, Senate

The AJC has released a new poll of Georgia’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, and it shows what most other recent polls have shown — a pair of close races:

“Gov. Nathan Deal, a Republican, garners 43 percent of likely voters, while Democrat Jason Carter holds 42 percent and Libertarian Andrew Hunt brings in 7 percent, including voters who were leaning toward one candidate.

“(David) Perdue notched 45 percent, compared with 41 percent for Democrat Michelle Nunn and 6 percent for Libertarian Amanda Swafford, including leaners.”

Some observations and thoughts:

1. I do not believe the Libertarian candidates will get 6-7 percent in these races. History tells us 3-4 percent is more likely. What does that mean? I would guess it means some of those people now saying they’ll vote “L” will either hold their noses and vote for the Republican, while others will stay home.

2. Recent polling results, including these, are more ominous for Deal than for Perdue, who isn’t an incumbent. The rule of thumb is that an incumbent polling below 50 percent is in trouble.

3. This poll is yet another reason the decision announced yesterday by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that it doesn’t plan to spend any more money in Georgia, is interesting. Maybe the NRSC doesn’t believe our poll, but there aren’t any major polls out there showing Perdue above 47 percent (counting only the latest one by any given pollster).

4. One of the best things that could happen to Deal is for Perdue to run up the score in his race, lifting other Republicans along the way. Right after the run-off, it looked like that might be a possibility. But given the way things are shaping up, is that still realistic? I’m not sure.

5. All politics is local, except when it isn’t. If this mid-term election looks like it’s going to produce a GOP “wave” and a majority in the Senate, I have a hard time believing Georgia will miss out on that. But if the Senate big picture is unclear, we could be in for an interesting election here.

Fifty-three days to go …

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Reader Comments 0

70 comments
notagain
notagain

Deal,Olens,speaker,all have issues that should be taken in to consideration.They must feel above the laws.

MHSmith
MHSmith

Running Scared

Georgia’s Democrats have registered more than 85,000 minority voters (and counting). Republicans never saw it coming.

 Georgia has roughly 700,000 unregistered black voters. If Democrats could cut that number by less than a third—and bring nearly 200,000 likely Democrats to the polls—they would turn a red state purple, and land a major blow to the national Republican Party. Or, as Michelle Obama said during a campaign rally on Monday, “If just 50 Democratic voters per precinct who didn’t vote in 2010 get out and vote this November—just 50 per precinct—then Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter will win.” Given 2,727 precincts in Georgia, that’s just 136,350 new voters.

Enter the New Georgia Project. Led by Stacey Abrams, Democratic leader in the state House of Representatives, the project is meant to do just that—register hundreds of thousands of blacks and other minorities. Their goal, says Abrams, is to “directly or indirectly collect 120,000 voter registration applications.” That could be enough to push Democrats over the top. And it makes the project one of the largest voter registration drives in recent Georgia history.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/stacey_abrams_new_georgia_project_shocks_georgia_s_gop_republicans_fighting.html

MHSmith
MHSmith

Millar says that he and state Rep. Mike Jacobs, R-Brookhaven, will attempt to "eliminate this election law loophole" in the upcoming legislative session. "For this to be called a 'non-partisan opportunity' by Interim CEO is an insult!," he wrote. "Another first for DeKalb! So much for being inclusive."

.

.

Are white voters in DeKalb County going to be allowed to vote in the early voting process as well as black voters?

Anything stopping Republican favored "white voter"partisan leaning counties from following DeKalb County's lead on Sunday voting, I believe you cited one in your column today that has done exactly that didn't you Kyle?


Do these Republicans not realize how unintelligent their words and actions are in the public eye, Kyle?


I guess when you are scared, desperate and not very smart, you'll say and do very foolish things. 


dreluv
dreluv

People of color are sick and tire hearing republican talking about suppression African American voter rights we are going to show up and turn Georgia Blue.

We are going to early vote so we can get Nunn and Carter elected.

Vote Vote like you never voted before let turn Georgia blue.

Dusty2
Dusty2

Well;.

How's  everybody here in Sleepy Hollow?

Print so small it's hard to follow?

OH yes, the subject is an AJC poll

Which was a worthless one @ 2 hours old.

I see no time when posts here  were made

No dates at all in this cavalcade

But let us stay on the subject de poll

And hope it will change  before  we all grow old.



LDH2O
LDH2O

A well-balanced column. Some conservatives ignore facts (c.f. the last round of presidential election polls when Republicans said they were cooked) but Kyle is generally intellectually honest. One of the few conservatives I can respect.

MHSmith
MHSmith

Kyle the GOP it appears is destined to make racial/ethnic matters worse. These types of comments coming from Republicans should change the poll numbers and the outcome of the election.  

GOP Legislator Says He'd 'Prefer More Educated Voters' Over Black Early Voters

A Republican state senator complained on Tuesday about a predominantly black Georgia county's move to make early voting available at a mall on a Sunday before November's general election, saying he'd rather have "more educated voters than a greater increase in the number of voters."

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/10/fran-millar-georgia-_n_5797010.html

Mr_B
Mr_B

@Captain-Obvious @MHSmith Since it has been repeatedly shown that those voters with advanced degrees tend to vote Democratic, I must say that i agree with you.

MHSmith
MHSmith

@Captain-Obvious @MHSmith The GOP will lose any support they may have gained among black voters and things have changed late in election cycles before, this election is no exception to that possibility.


As for your inference to who is gullible that is your subjective opinion, as well as  what qualifies for an educated voter. Perhaps you would like to reinstate a poll tax, too?

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

I have found that most people that dismiss education as "a piece of paper" don't have one. As for Educated...it has been the pattern for some time that the more education one has the more likely one is to vote Democratic.

Infraredguy
Infraredguy

Jason " Empty Suit " Carter wins the race for Governor in the State of Atlanta and immediately declares he will open a champaign for the office of Governor of Fulton County, Reed may challenge him for the seat. Go Dems

longmemories
longmemories

I am not surprised that $26 million would be slipped in the budget at the last second.  I am disappointed that Deal's response would be to fire those on DCH that question the $26 million. He also tried to take away whistle blower status for others who went public.  Add on the health care workers who are suffering with the slash in DSH payments and no medicaid expansion.  The state teachers are riled up.  The wagons are circling and the base is getting smaller and smaller.  Add two more votes he just lost on the DCH board (and all their friends and many more reading about the raw power of taking away their spot because they caught him with his hand in the cookie jar).  An election that should not have been close now looks very losable.  Terrible job by his handlers.

MHSmith
MHSmith

With the events of the last several days these poll numbers could change sharply Kyle. Your column tomorrow is certainly part of what will drive the numbers in the other direction. The last sentence of your next column, with regards to what one lawmaker said... I mean, talk about kicking the dog in the head? ( I'm holding off on the rest of my comment)    


Anyway, I will not be a surprise to see Carter leading Deal after these last two items make it before the public at large, with time to mull them over.

gotalife
gotalife

@MHSmith The polls never corrected and off by ten:

"

Maher asked about voter turnout for Democrats, which he asserted was too low to carry the party in the mid-term.

“Nobody comes about to vote to say ‘thank you,’” Maher said. “The people who get health care now — they’re the people least likely to vote. The people who come out to vote are the angry people.”

“That’s true,” said Pelosi. “Fear is a motivator, and we are not fear-mongers. The Democrats are messengers of hope, and that’s what we will continue to be.”

Nevertheless, Pelosi said she thinks election models are flawed.

“All of the prognostications are predicated on false, ancient, old, stale assumptions,” she claimed. “We’re in a whole new world of communications now.”

Pelosi pointed out that “prognosticators” initially predicted that former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor would win his GOP primary by 35 points. Instead, he lost by 10, she said.

“They were 45 points long, 90 miles off shore of Washington, D.C.,” Pelosi said of the pollsters." Daily Caller.


Media are marching lock step to help the gop and they still have to cheat to win.



MHSmith
MHSmith

@gotalife @MHSmith

Read tomorrows columns by Bookman and Wingfield, add to those thoughts Georgia state Sen. Fran Millar comments about black voters. 

Come back afterwards and tell me "then",  how wrong I am about a possible big shift in the poll numbers cited on this blog.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

People who want to comment on the new commenting policy are welcome to do so on the thread about the policy.

notagain
notagain

Deal says it's my way or no way.

When you turn a herd of elephants lose in a pumpkin patch,you know some will be trampled.Get rid of the monopoly.......

JAWJA
JAWJA

@notagain All female journalists and human beings appreciate your referral to the pumpkin patch. Very good example of a monopoly party gone overboard.

CommonSenseisntCommon
CommonSenseisntCommon

Kyle I know with the posted rules and the new format it will be labor intensive on your part (for a while).


Good Luck.

straker
straker

Kyle - "all I can say is you weren't receiving the complaints about how broken it was"


OK, I'll bite.


Are you receiving grateful responses about how better this new site is?

ByteMe
ByteMe

For #3, unlike the candidates, the NRSC can coordinate with PACs, right?  No need for the NRSC to spend money on the race when we have PACs to do it for them anonymously.


For #4, unlikely Perdue is going to run up anything.  He's not closing the sale so far any more than Nunn is.

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

Polls aside, it is hard to believe that more than half of the electorate will continue to put up with this sort of blatant self enrichment from Raw Deal...

Two members of Georgia’s Department of Community Health board got a call Thursday afternoon telling them they were being replaced by Gov. Nathan Deal just five hours after a $26 million rate hike for the politically powerful nursing home industry stalled at a board meeting.

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/deal-drops-two-who-questioned-nursing-home-hike/nhLzX/?icmp=ajc_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_ajcstub1

straker
straker

Kyle, this new format doesn't seem any better to me.


Whatever happened to "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"?


Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@straker All I can say is you weren't receiving the complaints about how broken it was.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Good morning, @@.


(I had to sign in again this morning, apparently there is a 4, 6, or 8 hour inactivity timer.)

LilBarryBailout
LilBarryBailout

Lil' Carter needs to do his homework on education spending in Georgia:


Georgia’s total education funding ranks in the top ten when measured as a percentage of personal income. Economists prefer to compare state spending as a percentage of personal income rather than per capita amounts to better adjust for cost of living differences. So in addition to allocating a higher percentage of its state budget to education than all but two states, Georgia also allocates a higher percentage of its citizens’ income to education than all but nine states.


http://www.georgiapolicy.org/analyzing-education-spending/#tXljg

Mr_B
Mr_B

@LilBarryBailout  "Georgia’s total education funding ranks in the top ten when measured as a percentage of personal income."


And since Georgia ranks 33 out of 50 in personal income ( a metric that has fallen by about $1100 per family since 2008) that's just peachy keen! What a recipe for staying #33. Keep 'em dumb enough and even the vast majority that wont be able to afford our newly privatized schools will continue to vote for Republicans.

Kevin745757575
Kevin745757575

I recall that Libertarian candidates have decided U.S. Senate races in Georgia before. Wyche Fowler's race many years ago comes to mind.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Kyle, I also noticed that Galloway has an edit (in 6 minutes) function on his comments. That would be nice to have here.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@IReportYouWhine I have asked about that. I'm told it's supposed to be available here, too, so it may just be an oversight with the set-up.

td1234
td1234

Here is an interest state about the poll: 


9% of those polled live in Dekalb

9% live in Fulton

6% live in Gwinn


I do not believe this is representative as how the final outcome will be represented. 

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

Yeah, what's up with the sign in all the time thing?

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@Kyle_Wingfield - On Galloway's blog there is a hidden "edit" button on the lower left when you mouse over your post.  It is missing on this blog, and is handy to correct formatting, grammar, and spelling errors (up to 6 minutes after the initial post on Galloway's blog).

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

From the Peach Pundit - "A poll released today by InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News shows a tight Governor’s race with Gov. Deal up 44%-40%. The margin of error is 2.9% and the confidence level is 95%.

It also shows a wide gap in the U.S. Senate race with Perdue up 50%-40% and winning without a runoff.  This margin is 6 points higher than the AJC poll released earlier today.

This poll puts the African-American vote at 33%, much higher than the 24% used by the AJC poll."

From the RNC's stated withdrawal from more funds being spent in Georgia and the political pundits predicting Republican wins here, I'd say the AJC has a heavier thumb on their scale than this poll.

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

Not sure that the RNC's polling is all that...they thought Romney was winning. Feels a bt deja vu to me.

IReportYouWhine
IReportYouWhine

I wouldn't put too much stock in the polls, for the most part, none of them ever nail the final results and quite a few are way off the mark.


The key factor in these races is the feeling of disdain about the direction this great country of ours is headed in, due to the inept foreign and economic policies of the democrats.


I wouldn't sweat Georgia.

332-206
332-206

@IReportYouWhine "...none of them ever nail the final results and quite a few are way off the mark."


Nate Silver might differ with your broad statement. But Sean Hannity probably won't...

TheRealJDW
TheRealJDW

Overall they are close...the question is not so much the poll as the turnout.

DawgDadII
DawgDadII

These are two races where "undecided" essentially translates to "brainless", one way or the other. How many people fall into that category, that is, how many of them who will actually show up to vote? Suspect not many.


Deal is a know commodity, no real reason to burn tons of cash there. Perdue is known only by family association and hasn't been out campaigning FOR much of anything (as if it would matter once elected), so he's essentially "not Obama's puppet". These races boil down to party affiliation and preference; we'll see where the people who bother to show up stand.

NorthAtlanta
NorthAtlanta

I couldn't find the data on how this poll was conducted.  The link didn't work for me.  If this was done by phone (as many of them are, I think), those are just not accurate.  Too many people don't answer calls they don't recognize on their caller ID.  Not sure how most of these polls are conducted, but I'd be interested to know.

Kyle_Wingfield
Kyle_Wingfield moderator

@NorthAtlanta Not sure why the link didn't work for you; I just tried it again to check it. In any case, here's a summary of the methodology from the story:


"The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The statewide poll of 884 likely voters was conducted by New York-based Abt SRBI Inc. Monday through Thursday with live calls to a mix of land-line and cellphones."

The_Centrist
The_Centrist

@Kyle_Wingfield @NorthAtlanta - I have had 4 polling firms call my archaic landline.  I refused 3 and quit the one I accepted.  I don' t accept strange callers on my cell phone and never got a polling voicemail.


I have little trust in primary or midterm polling.

HeadleyLamar
HeadleyLamar

@NorthAtlanta I often wonder about this myself. Most under 40 no longer have a home phone.


If those are the people they are calling well they are going to decidedly skew older more conservative and more likely to vote Republican.